Rookie QB Power Rankings

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/23/luck-vs-griffin-a-statistical-comparison/?ref=football

 

This article echoes everything I've been saying about Luck's performance being impressive given what he's been asked to do. It states just like me, that Luck has been the most impressive rookie QB when taking everything into account, RGIII is a very very close 2nd. Both have been great so far IMO.

[AllYouNeedIsLovie 377]

Luck is really starting to impress as of late, while RG3 isn't playing as well.

[KiLaSix9+ 398]

My rankings:

 

1. RG3

2. Luck

3. Weeden

4. Tanny

5. Wilson

 

I really like what I see from Weeden. If it wasn't for a few dropped passes and crucial mistakes by the Browns, he would have the team sitting at or above 500.

 

Updated:

 

1. Luck

2. RG3

3. Tanny

4. Weeden

5. Wilson

 

It's gotten closer between Weeden and Wilson. I spoke highly of Weeden previously but I believe hes hit a wall while Wilson is getting more comfortable and getting better. Luck has played extremely well lately.

 

Also like what Tannehill is doing in Miami. I think he could end up being #2 as defenses begin to figure RG3 out a little.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

1) Andrew Luck

2) RGIII

3) Ryan Tannehill

4) Brandon Weeden

5) Russell Wilson

 

Career wise I think it'll end up:

 

1) Luck

2) Tannehill

3) Wilson

4) RGIII

5) Weeden (a lot doing with his age.)

 

I'm sticking with my #1 guy obviously, because I was right all along.

 

 

I'd make these changes as of now though:

 

1) Luck

2) RGIII

3) Wilson

4) Tannehill

5) Weeden

 

As you can see, career wise I have Tannehill and Wilson jumping RGIII when it's all said and done. Tannehill has a bunch of guys to throw to, wait til that kid gets real weapons. He's also #1 in the NFL—yes, the entire league—in QB rating against the blitz. Not Peyton Manning, Not Tom Brady, nor Drew Brees, nor Aaron Rodgers, it's Ryan Tannehill.

 

But so far I've been pretty dead on about the QBs, I keep telling people I know QBs. I know lots of coaches, I've been around the game my entire life and played QB as a kid. I got into partying and traveling too much in high school and threw away sports for a few years like an idiot, but I'm 26 now and I still have the knowledge.

[AllYouNeedIsLovie 377]

1. Andrew Luck

2. RG3

3. Ryan Tannehill

4. Russell Wilson

5. Brandon Weeden

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

I'm sticking with my #1 guy obviously, because I was right all along.

 

 

I'd make these changes as of now though:

 

1) Luck

2) RGIII

3) Wilson

4) Tannehill

5) Weeden

 

As you can see, career wise I have Tannehill and Wilson jumping RGIII when it's all said and done. Tannehill has a bunch of guys to throw to, wait til that kid gets real weapons. He's also #1 in the NFL—yes, the entire league—in QB rating against the blitz. Not Peyton Manning, Not Tom Brady, nor Drew Brees, nor Aaron Rodgers, it's Ryan Tannehill.

 

But so far I've been pretty dead on about the QBs, I keep telling people I know QBs. I know lots of coaches, I've been around the game my entire life and played QB as a kid. I got into partying and traveling too much in high school and threw away sports for a few years like an idiot, but I'm 26 now and I still have the knowledge.

 

Overreaction post is an overreaction.

 

Andrew Luck has just over the past three weeks started outplaying RGIII, you use a faulty argument to back up why you think he's been the better QB and then link to a website that applies the same faulty argument.

 

25% of Josh Freeman's passes this year have been deep passes, 17% of Matt Ryan's passes this season have been deep, does that mean Freeman has been more impressive this year then Ryan?

 

26% of Luck's passes have been deep, 17% of Drew Brees' passes have been deep, does that mean that Luck has been a better QB then Brees this year?

 

Its a dumb argument because RGIII is still leading a top 10 scoring offense regardless of where he throws the ball and he's still putting up great efficiency stats regardless of how deep his throws are. And your decision to for whatever reason exclude or disregard the fact that RGIII has by far the edge in rushing, makes this all even more stupid.

 

And yea, Luck has been outplaying RGIII as of late, but Luck in the last three games has also played 3 of the 10 worst pass defenses in terms of YPG, 2 of the 5 worst teams in terms of TD passes given up. While in the same span RGIII has played the best pass defense in the NFL in the Steelers, the team that leads the league in INTS in the Giants, and a Panthers team that put pressure on him all game.

[True Blue 16]

Russell Wilson is being vastly underrated in this thread. Going off of passer rating up to this point (since NFL.com doesn't list QBR):

 

10. RGIII 93.9

11. Russell Wilson 87.2

25. Andrew Luck 79.0

27. Ryan Tannehill 78.2

32. Brandon Weeden 67.9

[Thanatos 2,847]

Russell Wilson is being vastly underrated in this thread. Going off of passer rating up to this point (since NFL.com doesn't list QBR):

 

10. RGIII 93.9

11. Russell Wilson 87.2

25. Andrew Luck 79.0

27. Ryan Tannehill 78.2

32. Brandon Weeden 67.9

 

We're not going off of passer rating because it's almost a broken statistic. There are too many things it fails to account for.

 

I'd re-rank them as:

 

1. Luck

2. RG3

3. Tannehill

4. Wilson

5. Weeden

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Donovan just mad because my Luck being the best of the rooks is legit.

 

[Thanatos 2,847]

Donovan just mad because my Luck being the best of the rooks is legit.

 

 

It wasn't right at the time.

 

There is no way that anyone could argue what you were arguing a month ago.

 

Things have changed now, Luck is playing much better.

[True Blue 16]

We're not going off of passer rating because it's almost a broken statistic. There are too many things it fails to account for.

 

I'd re-rank them as:

 

1. Luck

2. RG3

3. Tannehill

4. Wilson

5. Weeden

Going off of QBR it's

 

1. Luck

2. RGII

3. Wilson

4. Tannehill

5. Weeden.

 

Wilson is probably the best in the red zone.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/80813/skelton-roethlisberger

[Sacks98 28]

1.Luck

2.RG3

3.Wilson

4.Tannehill

5.Weeden

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Going off of QBR it's

 

1. Luck

2. RGII

3. Wilson

4. Tannehill

5. Weeden.

 

Wilson is probably the best in the red zone.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/80813/skelton-roethlisberger

 

I didn't even look at QBR and that's what my most updated rankings are.

 

It wasn't right at the time.

 

There is no way that anyone could argue what you were arguing a month ago.

 

Things have changed now, Luck is playing much better.

 

Statistically? No. But there is a way someone could argue what I did a month ago, and I did. If you just looked at stats and not watch the games, you could say all that. But I watched the games, because I'm a game tape (thank you Based All 22) junky. Especially with QB play.

 

The reason I had Luck tops, and RGIII under him was strictly based on my eye test. I saw more growth, and the things I view as good QB play from him. That was the whole point of the thread too by the way. Your own personal rankings. You guys decided to refute it with stats, and I stuck to my guns. I trusted the tape.

 

My "Luck throwing deep, and RGIII not" point wasn't the thing I clung to as "Hey Luck is throwing it deep so he's better" like Donovan seems to think. Call it a hunch, I call it logic, I saw a smart QB who wasn't afraid to make a big play (with his arm) and was doing the things I would want my QB to do to win games and be an elite QB. RGIII is a little more conservative, which is fine, he may be asked to do that from his coaches. Just like Luck got asked to air it out (no running game.) I've just always thought Luck was a better passer (hence me disregarding running in the rankings.)

 

Now my Jags have to deal with another stud QB twice a year after we finally got rid of Manning. Awesome.

Edited November 11, 2012 by CampinWithGoatSampson

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Donovan just mad because my Luck being the best of the rooks is legit.

 

 

That's exactly it.

 

I didn't even look at QBR and that's what my most updated rankings are.

 

 

 

Statistically? No. But there is a way someone could argue what I did a month ago, and I did. If you just looked at stats and not watch the games, you could say all that. But I watched the games, because I'm a game tape (thank you Based All 22) junky. Especially with QB play.

 

The reason I had Luck tops, and RGIII under him was strictly based on my eye test. I saw more growth, and the things I view as good QB play from him. That was the whole point of the thread too by the way. Your own personal rankings. You guys decided to refute it with stats, and I stuck to my guns. I trusted the tape.

 

My "Luck throwing deep, and RGIII not" point wasn't the thing I clung to as "Hey Luck is throwing it deep so he's better" like Donovan seems to think. Call it a hunch, I call it logic, I saw a smart QB who wasn't afraid to make a big play (with his arm) and was doing the things I would want my QB to do to win games and be an elite QB. RGIII is a little more conservative, which is fine, he may be asked to do that from his coaches. Just like Luck got asked to air it out (no running game.) I've just always thought Luck was a better passer (hence me disregarding running in the rankings.)

 

Now my Jags have to deal with another stud QB twice a year after we finally got rid of Manning. Awesome.

 

A smart QB who isn't afraid to make a big play?

 

So you want your QB take a bunch of shots down the field if that leads to a 57 comp %, 2.8% to 2.5% INT-TD ratio, and a 79.1 QBR?

 

That makes absolutely no sense.

 

Its cool and all to want to stretch the defense out, but when it hurts your offense more then help it, how is that being smart?

 

This has nothing to do with watching games, I've seen plenty of WAS games as well as I've seen plenty of IND games seeing as I don't live that far from Indiana. I've seen both play, and your assertion that RGIII is a little more conservative is so far from the truth. Its the offense that's ran that limits RGIII, you know, the WCO? And meanwhile Arians has taken the same offense he tried to instil in PIT to IND, where there's emphasis on throwing the ball, a lot, and throwing it deep. So you are essentially faulting RGIII for excelling at the offense he is being asked to run, while praising Luck for putting up average to below average numbers (outside of passing yards) for the offense he runs.

 

One of the reasons RGIII was praised coming out of college was his pinpoint accuracy, especially down the field, and his willingness to go deep. Hasselbeck among others has even come out numerous times saying that the Redskins offense needs to run a more open offense.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

I said in my last post that RGIII was a little more conservative but that's because that's what the coaches are asking him to do, and Luck goes down field more because that's what the coaches are asking him to do.

 

 

I know all about Shanny's WCO (though it's hybrid with the read-option from Baylor), and Arian's vertical play action offense. What's impressive is they're still hitting vertically even though they have no semblance of a run game — that's because that boy Luck is balling.

 

You obviously want me to say RGIII has looked better, but in my opinion, with my eye test, I've been more impressed with Luck. I already acknowledged they're asked to do different things, it's not my fault Shanny is handcuffing RGIII, Luck's playing better IMO.

[True Blue 16]

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/wheres-the-hype-russell-wilson-nfls-best-rookie-qb-so-far/19228/

[Jayrus 51]

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/wheres-the-hype-russell-wilson-nfls-best-rookie-qb-so-far/19228/

 

Thanks for that True Blue. I've restrained myself for weeks hoping someone would notice the woefully lopsided hype going on. How do Luck and RGIII get so much praise and attention for torching nobodies while Wilson gets ignored for just as strong performances against much better teams? Wilson is #3 on the rookie QB list at WORST. He may not have the yardage, but he's thrown for more TDs and been just as efficient with his passing as either Luck or RG3, maybe even moreso. but he always gets ignored because "Oh, he has a better team around him than Luck or RG3" or "Oh he's only good at home". Meanwhile Luck gets praised like he's the second coming of Peyton Manning for torching the worst team in football. Yeah, that's real even-handed guys. don't get me wrong. Luck and RG3 are good QBs. Probably future stars, but Wilson is just as good and should be getting just as much recognition as either of them.

[RazorStar 4,025]

Just check my Qb Watch. Near the start of the year, Wilson was in the bottom 5, but now he's slowly climbing the ranks, 15 out of 34 right now. Weeden is dead last, Luck is 26th, Tannehill is 29th and Griffin has slid from the top spot to the 6th spot.

Edited November 16, 2012 by RazorStar

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Before the draft, I liked Luck the best, Wilson second, Tannehill third, RGIII fourth, and then Weeden. In terms of their total package and potential. Weeden did have a disadvantage with his age though, I took that in consideration in my rankings. Such a good QB draft, all these guys are legit.

 

*shrug*

 

I've always been a fan of Russell since he used to torch my boys at Florida State (although who hasn't at NC State?), and then destroyed the Big Ten.

 

On twitter, during the Preseason when it was blatantly obvious he was better than Flynn I was always posting, "#ALLRUSSELLEVERYTHING" Been on the Wilson train for awhile.

Edited November 16, 2012 by CampinWithGoatSampson

[Glanvilles Grits 142]

The thing I like about Wilson is that he doesn't try to force a play to happen. At least, not early on in the game. He knows when to protect the football which is what a lot of rookies tend to struggle with. He might not be throwing 30 - 40 times a game, but he is just so efficient (As the article says) that you can't deny how well he is doing. He's not going to rack up a ton of yards usually because they have Lynch to run the football, but the guy is going to win you football games. If he doesn't win the game with a big drive/play near the end, he'll win it for you by protecting the football. I love that.

Edited November 16, 2012 by Chris D

[Omerta+ 1,206]

To me this was never an argument. Luck won it all the way. Even when RG3 started hot I had a hunch it would not last forever. Luck on the other hand when he started he was at the floor of his potential, he was a rookie, new offense, no game experience, new tempo, and it showed. He was starting off rough but he had to adjust to the pro game and I knew once he did this would not be a race it would be obvious who was better.

 

as to his QBR lets say this. Peyton Manning's rookie year he had a passer rating of 71.2. We all know how that turned out when he caught on, and Luck will do the same. People make this comparison for a reason.

 

As to their athletic ability when running. Is RG3 faster ? Sure. But Luck is smarter when he runs. And lets not kid ourselves Luck is one hell of an athlete two, the kid can move it down field but he doesn't because he is a pass first guy.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

The thing I like about Wilson is that he doesn't try to force a play to happen. At least, not early on in the game. He knows when to protect the football which is what a lot of rookies tend to struggle with. He might not be throwing 30 - 40 times a game, but he is just so efficient (As the article says) that you can't deny how well he is doing. He's not going to rack up a ton of yards usually because they have Lynch to run the football, but the guy is going to win you football games. If he doesn't win the game with a big drive/play near the end, he'll win it for you by protecting the football. I love that.

 

But there is two sides to that though. WIlson doesn't have to carry the amount of load of the offense that Luck and RGIII have.

 

It becomes a lot easier to throw the ball when you aren't asked to lead your offense, or aren't asked to carry as much load. A lot of QBs in the NFL can put up great efficiency #s when teams start stacking up the box.

[Jayrus 51]

But there is two sides to that though. WIlson doesn't have to carry the amount of load of the offense that Luck and RGIII have.

 

It becomes a lot easier to throw the ball when you aren't asked to lead your offense, or aren't asked to carry as much load. A lot of QBs in the NFL can put up great efficiency #s when teams start stacking up the box.

 

 

So Wilson gets points taken off for having a good team, yet Luck and RG3 Don't get points off for the fact that they've only beaten shit teams? Sorry, but I call bullshit. Also, tell me how exactly Wilson doesn't "Lead" his offense? Sure, we're a rushing team, but the entire offense is vehemently behind Wilson. He's led several fourth quarter comebacks against very tough teams. He kept us in the game against the Lions when the defense had pretty much stopped playing. He may not have the big yardage, but he's definately the most efficient passer of the rookies, maybe second only to RG3. He's completely won over his team. they've taken the reigns off and are letting him do his thing and because of that he's put up a chain of great performances in recent weeks. Yet he doesn't "Lead" the team? Right.

 

So yeah. Keep sucking Luck's dick for lighting up bottom barrel teams. Keep fawning over RG3's big runs until he gets himself killed. I'll take the guy leading a legitamate contender to the playoffs, and has done it by going through and winning against some of the harshest offenses and defenses in the league.

[Omerta+ 1,206]

So Wilson gets points taken off for having a good team, yet Luck and RG3 Don't get points off for the fact that they've only beaten shit teams? Sorry, but I call bullshit. Also, tell me how exactly Wilson doesn't "Lead" his offense? Sure, we're a rushing team, but the entire offense is vehemently behind Wilson. He's led several fourth quarter comebacks against very tough teams. He kept us in the game against the Lions when the defense had pretty much stopped playing. He may not have the big yardage, but he's definately the most efficient passer of the rookies, maybe second only to RG3. He's completely won over his team. they've taken the reigns off and are letting him do his thing and because of that he's put up a chain of great performances in recent weeks. Yet he doesn't "Lead" the team? Right.

 

So yeah. Keep sucking Luck's dick for lighting up bottom barrel teams. Keep fawning over RG3's big runs until he gets himself killed. I'll take the guy leading a legitamate contender to the playoffs, and has done it by going through and winning against some of the harshest offenses and defenses in the league.

 

That is just it. The Colts are contenders BECAUSE of Luck, these same bottom of the barrel teams handed the colts a 2-14 season and now they are 6-3 because of luck. That is the difference.

[Jayrus 51]

That is just it. The Colts are contenders BECAUSE of Luck, these same bottom of the barrel teams handed the colts a 2-14 season and now they are 6-3 because of luck. That is the difference.

 

Again, I'm not saying Luck isn't good. I'm saying Wilson is doing just as well and against better teams. And before you hand me that "He has a better team around him" crap, remember that Tarvaris Jackson had this same team last year and only managed a 7-9. This year we're 6-4 at week 10 and looking at most likely a wildcard berth at the least. The only real difference between this year's team and last year's is the QB play. That's why I call the notion that Wilson isn't as good because he as a better team around him complete crap, because it's specifically the improved play from the QB position that's making the difference this year. Note that I'm not saying it doesn't help at all. i'm sure any QB would love to have an awesome run game and top defense to help him out, but to completely write the guy off because he had the fortune to be drafted to a better team than Luck is totally unfair. Wilson's play is speaking for itself. He's on their level.

Edited November 17, 2012 by Jayrus