housemd 338 Posted July 28, 2013 The Bills' website considers 2,000 rushing yards a "possible" achievement for C.J. Spiller in 2013, and suggests Spiller could "arguably" touch the football 30 times per game. It's an insanely optimistic projection, but notable coming from the team's own official site. In-house beat writer Chris Brown notes rookie coach Doug Marrone's up-tempo Syracuse offenses fired off a whopping 79.1 plays per game, including an average of 41 rushing attempts per contest. In 2012, the Patriots led the NFL with 74.3 plays per game. Per Brown, Buffalo's goal is to wear down opponents, and Marrone doesn't "seem too concerned about giving a back too many carries." We have Spiller locked in as a top-five fantasy back. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Glanvilles Grits 142 Posted July 28, 2013 After what we saw out of him last season, it seems absolutely possible for him to rush for 2000 yards. IF he can stay healthy. That's really my only concern with Spiller and calling him a top back at this point. He looks and plays the part when he's in the game, but he has got to stay healthy all year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BwareDWare94 723 Posted July 28, 2013 So he'll likely only play 4-8 games this year? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dutch 874 Posted July 30, 2013 (edited) After what we saw out of him last season, it seems absolutely possible for him to rush for 2000 yards. IF he can stay healthy. That's really my only concern with Spiller and calling him a top back at this point. He looks and plays the part when he's in the game, but he has got to stay healthy all year. He had his first season over 1000 yards. Proclaiming him a possible 2000 yard rusher already is beyond a stretch; anointing him very prematurely. He had a great season on limited carries but no one seems to factor in the impact of having to carry the rock as the lead guy for an entire season and disregarding the wear and tear throughout the season. Too soon, too soon. Edited July 30, 2013 by dutchff7 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AllYouNeedIsLovie 377 Posted July 30, 2013 30 touches a game is a lot. I know Spiller is really good and they didn't use him enough last year, but that will run down a RB pretty quickly. Plus, they have Fred Jackson and he's a pretty damn good #2 RB. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oochymp 2,393 Posted July 30, 2013 last year Spiller averaged 15.6 touches per game (12.9 rushes and 2.7 receptions) the Bills ran about 61.4 plays per game, so Spiller had touches on roughly a quarter of their offensive plays, even if the Bills run close to 80 offensive plays a game (which is really high, but not unimaginable, as one example, the Patriots ran about 75 offensive plays per game) he would only project to 20 touches a game. I understand that Spiller is supposed to have a bigger role this season, but you're talking about doubling his total touches and increasing his percentage of the offense from a right around 25% to about 38% also, 30 touches per game is 480 touches over the season, which is a number that's only been hit once ever (James Wilder in 1984 had 407 carries and 85 receptions in a season in which he amassed over a quarter of his total rushing yards in his ten year career) so this really is an absurd projection Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
blotsfan 2,112 Posted July 30, 2013 30 is a bit high, but he definitley should get more than last year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
East495 55 Posted July 31, 2013 Getting the ball into Spillers hands 30 times... is different than handing off to him 30 times. And he will be very effective in the Bills passing game this year. But I dont see him getting more than 20-25 carries a game. Esp with Freddy Jax behind him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Glanvilles Grits 142 Posted July 31, 2013 He had his first season over 1000 yards. Proclaiming him a possible 2000 yard rusher already is beyond a stretch; anointing him very prematurely. He had a great season on limited carries but no one seems to factor in the impact of having to carry the rock as the lead guy for an entire season and disregarding the wear and tear throughout the season. Too soon, too soon. How is it showing a disregard to the wear and tear? CJ Spiller is certainly capable of 2000 yards if he's rushing for 6 YPC and getting around 300-350 carries in a season. I'm not saying he's going to do it, I'm not saying he's coming close. I'm just saying that he has the capability if all the stars fall in line. Also as far as the wear and tear, are you assuming that he's going to be injured? A lot of people hint towards the notion that Spiller is injury prone, that's not really the case. In fact, a lot of people see a smaller framed guy and instantly figure that the guy can't take the pounding a starting back in the league would make. I'm just not a believer in that notion. CJ Spiller isn't injury prone. To assume he isn't going to be able to handle the work load is hogwash IMO. Until we see him with a full season of carries, everything is a big question mark. I don't think he'll hit 2000 this year, is it possible? I believe so. I think 1700 yards is more realistic. Fred Jackson is still going to be getting carries in the backfield. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oochymp 2,393 Posted August 1, 2013 How is it showing a disregard to the wear and tear? CJ Spiller is certainly capable of 2000 yards if he's rushing for 6 YPC and getting around 300-350 carries in a season. I'm not saying he's going to do it, I'm not saying he's coming close. I'm just saying that he has the capability if all the stars fall in line. it's a rather large jump to say that a guy who averaged 6 ypc with just over 200 carries (207) can maintain the same average with 130 more carries, then again Adrian Peterson had only broken 5 ypc once in a season (his rookie year) before averaging 6 last year en route to the second highest single season rushing yardage total in NFL history, so any projection based on past performance is really little more than throwing darts Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Piggly Wiggly 960 Posted August 1, 2013 After what we saw out of him last season, it seems absolutely possible for him to rush for 2000 yards. IF he can stay healthy. That's really my only concern with Spiller and calling him a top back at this point. He looks and plays the part when he's in the game, but he has got to stay healthy all year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seanbrock 1,684 Posted August 2, 2013 This would be a big mistake. CJ Spiller is an awesome back. Very versatile and explosive but he's not a guy who you want to over work. He'll break down. They do still have Fred Jackson...but who knows what he has left or how long he can stay healthy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Glanvilles Grits 142 Posted August 2, 2013 Why is he not a guy you want to give a full work load? Why do people believe he will break down? It surely can't be his size. Listed at 5'11" and 200 lbs he's the same size as guys like Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, and Ahmad Bradshaw to name a few. All guys who have shown they could carry the load (perhaps not so much Bradshaw). People see the slim frame that Spiller has and pretty much expect him to be broken on contact. That's not the case. I'm really curious to know what kind of evidence people have to know without a doubt he won't be able to carry the full work load of a starting running back. There's about as much evidence for that as there is for me to say he's capable of 2000 yards. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oochymp 2,393 Posted August 3, 2013 Why is he not a guy you want to give a full work load? Why do people believe he will break down? giving him a full work load is fine, in fact probably a good idea based on what he's done so far, he's done significantly better each year while getting more carries (in 2010 he averaged 3.8 ypc on 74 carries, up to 5.2 on 107 in 2011, then 6.0 on 207 last year; his recieving stats show the same trajectory, 6.5 ypr on 24 receptions in 2010 up to 6.9 on 39 in 2011, then 10.7 on 43 last season) but there's going to be a point of diminishing returns and giving him 480 touches goes well beyond giving him a full workload Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
