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Straight Up - Who is the best QB in this class?

Who will be the most likely to succeed?  

27 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will be the most likely to succeed?

    • Johnny Manziel
      2
    • Theodore Bridgewater
      11
    • Blake Bortles
      4
    • Derek Carr
      2
    • Jimmy Garoppolo
      0
    • A.J.McCarron
      2
    • Aaron Murray
      3
    • Zack Mettenberger
      0
    • Tom Savage
      0
    • David Fales
      1
    • Jeff Mathews
      2
    • Garret Gilbert
      0


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Probably the hottest potato out there at the moment.

There will likely be a few more teams interested in QB's besides the obvious ones out of this class but not necessarily in the first round although I predict four to go.

What say you?

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How successful these guys are depends mostly on where they end up, the stability of their franchise, the weapons they have, etc., but I'm gonna say Derek Carr. If he lands in the right spot, I think all his flaws are coachable.

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My realistic pick is David Fales. Absolutely love him more than every other QB in this class.

 

He's not a speed demon, but his footwork, and pre-snap adjustments are something to be highly valued. You don't need an elite LT or line to protect him with his pocket maneuverability skills.

 

Watched a lot of tape on him, and he knows and understands progressions very well. He's a very intelligent QB, he doesn't have the greatest arm velocity, but watching his pro day I could tell he was working on it.

 

In the pocket under pressure, he's very calm, stands tall and is very accurate. He's not going to automatically default to run around like a madman..or force a play. He understands the position very well and is tougher than what most people give him credit for. Wherever he goes, he's gonna have the ability to succeed.

 

Really like Fales, may not be the popular pick, but he's gonna be the best QB of this class. IMO.

 

My unrealistic pick is Johnny Football :smug:

Edited by ATL

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If I was starting from scratch with a franchise, I think I would have to pick Bortles. He has the highest floor I think. Teddy and Johnny both have tremendous ceilings, but I think they both have far more risks involved.

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Jeff Mathews.

 

:bookit:

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My vote goes to Derek Carr, as alluded to by others... So much with QBs (and all players to an extent) depends on where they go and what kind of coaches and talent around them they have... But I think Carr is the real deal and might even be able to transcend some bad luck and a bad situation.

Call me crazy (I did also like Nassib a year ago, ha).. but I think Carr has the potential to be one of the next GREAT QBs in this league.

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My vote goes to Derek Carr, as alluded to by others... So much with QBs (and all players to an extent) depends on where they go and what kind of coaches and talent around them they have... But I think Carr is the real deal and might even be able to transcend some bad luck and a bad situation.

 

Call me crazy (I did also like Nassib a year ago, ha).. but I think Carr has the potential to be one of the next GREAT QBs in this league.

Derek Carr could very well pan out worse than his dog shit brother. :yao:

 

Guy's stats were severely inflated by horrific competition. WAC/Mountain West is a total joke. Look at his final game in the Vegas Bowl. He and his team got their asses handed to them by an okay USC team. 29/54 for 216 yards in a 45-20 loss. :slingblade:

His ass will be firmly planted on the bench for as long as he's in the NFL.

 

Same applies to David Fales.

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If I was starting from scratch with a franchise, I think I would have to pick Bortles. He has the highest floor I think. Teddy and Johnny both have tremendous ceilings, but I think they both have far more risks involved.

 

Bortles is way more of a project than Bridgewater. Bridgewater doesn't have a tremendous ceiling either. He's the highest floor and shortest ceiling (along with David Fales and Aaron Murray.) Bortles is the one with a possible taller ceiling — has more "potential." The risk is always will he ever reach that and fix his flaws?

Edited by CampinWithGoatSampson

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It all boils down to working WITH your QB - if he has failings or weak areas, you try to stay away from them in game play and work on them in practice. You can't put a square peg in a round hole.

You mold your system around the strengths of your QB, not the other way around - so that means the HC's need to carefully scrutinise the candidates and choose the one he feels most closely allies with his ideas and workings.

Then you surround him with tools to succeed - like weapons to throw to and blockers and a decent running game to fall back on when situations demand it.

It's common sense, not rocket science.

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Voted for Bridgewater, but I could see Murray having a Russell Wilson-like entrance into the NFL if he's drafted into a good situation.

 

He could be that guy we scratch our heads about possibly falling to the 3rd round when it's all said and done.

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This is how I'd rank these guys:

 

Tier 1: Bridgewater

Tier 2: Manziel

Tier 3: Fales, Bortles, Murray

Tier 4: Carr, Mettenberger

Tier 5: McCarron, Savage, Mathews

Tier Gabbert: Garoppolo

 

I haven't even looked at Gilbert like that so I can't rank him.

Edited by CampinWithGoatSampson
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This is how I'd rank these guys:

 

Tier 1: Bridgewater

Tier 2: Manziel

Tier 3: Fales, Bortles, Murray

Tier 4: Carr, Mettenberger, McCarron

Tier 5: Savage, Mathews

Tier Gabbert: Garoppolo

 

I haven't even looked at Gilbert like that so I can't rank him.

Fales :megusta:

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Tier 1 - Manziel

Tier 2 - Bridgewater, Bortles

Tier 3 - Murray, Savage, Mccarron

Tier 4 - Carr, Garoppolo

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This is how I'd rank these guys:

 

Tier 1: Bridgewater

Tier 2: Manziel

Tier 3: Fales, Bortles, Murray

Tier 4: Carr, Mettenberger, McCarron

Tier 5: Savage, Mathews

Tier Gabbert: Garoppolo

 

I haven't even looked at Gilbert like that so I can't rank him.

 

You have McCarron a couple tiers too high...

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This is how I'd rank these guys:

 

Tier 1: Bridgewater

Tier 2: Manziel

Tier 3: Fales, Bortles, Murray

Tier 4: Carr, Mettenberger, McCarron

Tier 5: Savage, Mathews

Tier Gabbert: Garoppolo

 

I haven't even looked at Gilbert like that so I can't rank him.

 

You have McCarron a couple tiers too high...

 

 

:rofl:

 

You know what though, now that I think about I think I do have him ONE tier too high. I'm gonna edit and put him in Tier 5. :yep:

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NONE of these QBs can make the players around them better. As said before and applies even more to this class...where these guys go will determine everything. With that being said with weapons around them and a coach that believes in them I went with McCarron despite all the haters on here! :yep:

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This is how I'd rank these guys:

 

Tier 1: Bridgewater

Tier 2: Manziel

Tier 3: Fales, Bortles, Murray

Tier 4: Carr, Mettenberger, McCarron

Tier 5: Savage, Mathews

Tier Gabbert: Garoppolo

 

I haven't even looked at Gilbert like that so I can't rank him.

 

You have McCarron a couple tiers too high...

 

 

:rofl:

 

You know what though, now that I think about I think I do have him ONE tier too high. I'm gonna edit and put him in Tier 5. :yep:

 

I don't think McCarron is too bad either. He may be a bit vanilla, but he is a decent game manager and won't lose you too many games. Surround him with some decent support in the right system and he should grow into a serviceable signal caller.

Edited by Wattafan

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The McCarron conversation is interesting. You usually don't hear having talent around you as a weakness. Everyone says he played with NFL caliber players at Alabama......well what type of players are they expecting him to play with in the NFL?

 

There was nothing wrong with the talent AJ had and if anything it gives him a leg up because he is so far advanced in a pro-system than any other QB in this draft.

 

The first time I studied his game I expected his arm strength to be pretty sub-par because of how low he was being ranked. And I watch the tapes and I'm scratching my head at how anyone thinks he can't make all the NFL throws. He had some nice speed and possession receivers and it takes a very well-placed ball to make them productive. He has touch and can put the ball ahead of a receiver on a deep route. Show me where he falls short to Bridgewater...

Edited by butta55

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@Campin

 

 

  • I agree overall Bridgewater is a more accurate QB across the board in college by the numbers. However, if you think they are far apart you will be mistaken.

 

  • You were correct about where AJ holds the ball which makes it easier to fumble, and also adds time that he has to bring the ball up and then throw. However, if you think is delivery is long after that I'm not buying it. Throwing mechanics will need to be taught to all of these QBs and a simple adjustment will go a far way because he can fire the ball out quickly.

 

  • The numbers against pressure is interesting but not overly alarming. Fact is no QB is "good" against pressure up the middle especially natural (non-blitz) pressure. The reason his numbers against the blitz aren't very different is because he knows how to read a defense and adjust where the ball is going before the snap. Blitzing is very different than a defensive line defeating blocks quickly and he will see alot more blitzes than natural pressure.

 

  • Since we like numbers....McCarron has a career completion % of 67.1 and Bridgewater has career completion % of 68. The problem with numbers is that you can make them dance anyway you want them to. That's why I prefer what I see on film and projecting it forward.

 

In conclusion we are talking about QBs from very different systems. Bridgewater as in a pro-like system, but not to the extent that AJ was. AJ doesn't escape the pocket like the other guys and for me that isn't a negative against him, he knows when to take a sack and when to throw it away. I'm not buying the throwing against pressure (especially for Bortles & Manziel) numbers are one thing but watch the games and we all know how they make those completions against blitz and pressure and most of the time it's not standing in there and delivering a accurate ball. And as far as mechanics you brought up some good points but I can go on longer about what Bridgewater's needs to clean up and how his "wind-up" motion takes velocity and accuracy off of his throws. I rather have a QB that has a quick delivery problem than an accuracy one. So like I said with all things on a team being equal at the end of the day I like McCarron.

Edited by butta55

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@Campin

 

 

  • I agree overall Bridgewater is a more accurate QB across the board in college by the numbers. However, if you think they are far apart you will be mistaken.
And as far as mechanics you brought up some good points but I can go on longer about what Bridgewater's needs to clean up and how his "wind-up" motion takes velocity and accuracy off of his throws. I rather have a QB that has a quick delivery problem than an accuracy one. So like I said with all things on a team being equal at the end of the day I like McCarron.

 

Wait, what?

 

So you agree Bridgewater is the more accurate QB but then say he has an accuracy problem. So if you mean by his mechanics he's losing out on some accuracy... being he's already a more accurate passer than McCarron if his mechanics were cleaned up would he not be even more accurate than McCarron?

 

 

Blitzing is very different than a defensive line defeating blocks quickly and he will see alot more blitzes than natural pressure.

 

So you can see into the future and you know McCarron will see a lot more blitzes than natural pressure in the NFL? If McCarron proves he can hurt you when you blitz teams will stop blitzing him then just rely on their natural pressure just like they do with a lot of other NFL QBs. Also, regardless Bridgewater's completion percentage and accuracy were higher than McCarron's no matter if they were blitzed or not. It's good that McCarron can spot the hole in the defense once the blitz comes that will help him in the league, but so can Bridgewater... at a better clip.

 

 

Since we like numbers....McCarron has a career completion % of 67.1 and Bridgewater has career completion % of 68. The problem with numbers is that you can make them dance anyway you want them to. That's why I prefer what I see on film and projecting it forward.

 

I know their career % numbers, Bridgewater's is still higher even though he was pressured far more (via a worse OL) than McCarron. The reason McCarron's pressure % was low but his career total completion % is right behind Bridgewater is because he wasn't pressured as much due to good OL play.

 

As far as numbers v.s. what we see — why not use both? Why throw one out? Just off the cut-ups and the eye test of their games I see more consistent accuracy and ball placement by Bridgewater. Mostly due to the fact that he can deal with pressure in the pocket better. Bridgewater's 3rd down conversation rate was light years ahead of the other top QB prospects. The blitz doesn't bother him. The fact is he can consistently produce in chaos, when protection breaks down, when a play must be made even though things haven't gone as planned. I haven't seen that as consistently with McCarron — he's definitely done it, but not nearly as many times nor as frequently as Bridgewater.

 

I trust my eye just like you trust yours. Along with trusting my eye I also look back at the raw numbers and see they back up what I'm seeing. In your case it seems like the numbers aren't backing up what you're seeing so you're saying I can make numbers dance anyway I want to. Only problem is those aren't my numbers, that's a writer's who isn't trying to prove one guy is better than the other. In fact McCarron and Bridgewater's numbers were in separate write ups. They weren't compared with each other. No one is making numbers dance in either's favor, they're just raw numbers. Numbers don't always tell the whole story and sometimes our eyes lie — it's always good to use both to keep yourself checked and balanced.

 

In conclusion we are talking about QBs from very different systems. Bridgewater as in a pro-like system, but not to the extent that AJ was. AJ doesn't escape the pocket like the other guys and for me that isn't a negative against him, he knows when to take a sack and when to throw it away. I'm not buying the throwing against pressure (especially for Bortles & Manziel) numbers are one thing but watch the games and we all know how they make those completions against blitz and pressure and most of the time it's not standing in there and delivering a accurate ball.

So Bridgewater runs a pro-like system but not to the extent that McCarron was? I know what I watched and they were very similar run heavy offenses with lots of play action to play off it. The classic NFL style offense. So because McCarron wasn't extending the play as much as Bridgewater when things broke down and instead took a sack or threw it away his offense was more Pro style? That's silly, you know better than that. The only thing I can think of is Louisville seemed to run more play action roll outs because they could utilize Bridgewater's legs to put pressure on coverage which could then open up receivers for easy completions. I don't see how that's a knock... that sounds like an advantage to me. Because Bridgewater can do both, he's not a scrambling/running QB. He's a pocket passer first and foremost.

 

We obviously see different things when it comes to these QBs so I guess let's just agree to disagree :shrug:

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johnnyruns_medium.gif:smug:

He's going to get broken in half on plays like that very soon. I am cringing just thinking about it.

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