NFLs most overrated players (or coaches)

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Marshall is not overrated whatsoever. I'm not a big numbers guy, but you look at the numbers he puts up and the situations he has been in and you can't honestly sit there and tell me that he isn't playing some great football. I remember before the season wondering if he could continue on his seasons of 100 catches and over 1000 yards like he did in Denver and he by far blew away my expectations.

 

Now Cutler forcing him the ball every other play helps, but high pointing the ball with strong hands and his ability to run the ball after the catch (former running back) puts him in the top 5 conversation all day everyday

 

You make a list of a lot of very good to great receivers, ask them to run the most basic routes in the tree, and throw them the ball a ton.

 

How many of them wouldn't be able to post up 1000+ yards on 100+ catches year in and year out?

 

So, your not giving him credit for his receptions (118, 2nd best in the league) and yards (1508, 3rd best in the league) which yielded elite numbers. You didn't bring up TDs which was 4th best in the league, but whatever. Then you go and say the only elite part of his game is his YAC (which in all actuality wasn't because he was 29th), but THEN go and disregard that as well because there are other receivers that are good at it... So basically, it just sounds like you're going to disregard everything good about this game. So he can yield elite numbers but is a bottom 10 guy. And when you do acknowledge a part of his game that you think is good, its irrelevant because other guys are good at it too. Lol

 

You're talking about one season. This is only the second time in his career he's managed to grab double digit TDs.

 

My saying his only elite skill was his YAC ability was an opinion not based on numbers but rather just from my seeing him play. I'm well aware of where he ranks number wise, but while there are a lot of receivers who can get yac because of their speed, he's got a combine of size and speed that only a few can match.

 

But his yac in of itself, which I believe to be his greatest asset other then his size doesn't justify him being ranked so high. His bulk stats do paint a picture of an elite wide receiver, but when you break it down and compare it with other heralded guys, he falls short.

[Jayrus 51]

I'm probably going to catch alot of flack from certain people for this but.... Tony Romo.

 

I know, I know. I'm just a Romo hater. It's not his fault he hasn't won anything. Blah blah blah. THAT is exactly my point. The excuses. The year in, year out glorification by every so called 'expert' out there. they're already talking up the Cowboys again. Talking about how the Cowboys are going to win the East and these new weapons were all Romo needed to finally do it. Bullshit. Enough. Romo is a choke artist. Period. End of discussion. How many times does he have to break his team's heart when they need him most? When do we stop giving him the benefit of the doubt?

 

Now I know statistically people usually rate him at or just below #10 on QB lists. He's not overrated so much statistically as he is constantly overhyped every year. He got paid more than the Superbowl MVP this offseason. The media always forgives every single mistake he makes. Nobody EVERY holds Tony Romo accountable for anything and they're always ready to glorify him the next year. Next year he'll finally do it. Next year he'll prove how great he is. Enough. He isn't great. Stop treating him like he is until he proves it.

Edited June 22, 2013 by Jayrus

[Dutch 874]

You make a list of a lot of very good to great receivers, ask them to run the most basic routes in the tree, and throw them the ball a ton.

 

How many of them wouldn't be able to post up 1000+ yards on 100+ catches year in and year out?

 

You are trying to over simplify and downplay his production. You just can't. Throwing the ball to someone a lot doesn't mean they will have that type of production. Simple routes, lazy routes, or however you deem them doesn't mean anything if he's still catching the ball making plays. That doesn't mean he will catch the ball or the defender won't make a play on such a simple route. It doesn't matter if he uses his physicality / athleticism or not, the play works. So he has to be doing something right. That's like saying Randy Moss only ran 2 routes his entire career. What does it matter if it couldn't be stopped? That's a weak argument.

 

 

You're talking about one season. This is only the second time in his career he's managed to grab double digit TDs.

 

Andre Johnson has never had a double digit TD season. That point doesn't matter much.

 

I'm going to further elaborate on this though. You say that I'm only talking about one season. This is without a doubt Brandon Marshall's best season in the league. You also said in an earlier post:

 

I'd take the younger receivers who are 25- years old over him.

 

That's absolutely fine because I would probably take A.J Green over any WR in the league right now. But there were four WRs under the age of 25 that had great seasons. A.J Green, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, and Julio Jones. Three of them just posted their first 1,000 yard season; this same one season that you are discrediting Brandon Marshall for. Not to mention Brandon Marshall had a better season then all of them.

So you try and disregard Brandon Marshall's best season but talk about receivers age 25 and under who ONLY have one great season to talk about.

 

His bulk stats do paint a picture of an elite wide receiver, but when you break it down and compare it with other heralded guys, he falls short.

 

So his bulk stats paint a picture of an elite receiver combined with the fact he just had his best season to date. So does that reasoning make him an elite receiver? You try and disregard his last season saying it's only one season. The thing about that claim is that Brandon Marshall has a resume to back that up.

 

Now you say he falls short to other elite receivers. Outside of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall can hold his own from a production standpoint. Now if we are talking heralded guys like you said, it has to be receivers that have been consistent throughout their careers. The only other guys outside the top 3 that fall in that category that are still consistently having good seasons are Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, Steve Smith, Marques Colston and Wes Welker. Brandon Marshall had better seasons than all of those guys. Outside of that group though, we are talking young receivers that have only put together 1-2 good seasons. And one season doesn't seem to mean much to you. So logically, it would seem that Brandon Marshall should be in your top group according to your reasoning.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

You are trying to over simplify and downplay his production. You just can't. Throwing the ball to someone a lot doesn't mean they will have that type of production. Simple routes, lazy routes, or however you deem them doesn't mean anything if he's still catching the ball making plays. That doesn't mean he will catch the ball or the defender won't make a play on such a simple route. It doesn't matter if he uses his physicality / athleticism or not, the play works. So he has to be doing something right. That's like saying Randy Moss only ran 2 routes his entire career. What does it matter if it couldn't be stopped? That's a weak argument.

 

Is it a weak argument?

 

He caught 60% of the passes thrown his direction, and averaged 13 YPC. That in of itself tells you how much he was force fed the ball.

 

When a guy catches that little of passes thrown his direction, has bellow average YPC among starting receivers and still puts up 1500 yards? It means he's not as good as his numbers would indicate.

 

Andre Johnson has never had a double digit TD season. That point doesn't matter much.

 

There's a lot wrong with comparing AJ's situation with any Marshall has ever been in.

 

Over the past couple of seasons including especially last yea, he has played on a balanced team that runs the ball in and around the redzone.

 

And over the seasons where AJ was targeted heavy, 2009, 2008, he still wasn't fed the ball as much as Marshall has in his career.

 

That's absolutely fine because I would probably take A.J Green over any WR in the league right now. But there were four WRs under the age of 25 that had great seasons. A.J Green, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, and Julio Jones. Three of them just posted their first 1,000 yard season; this same one season that you are discrediting Brandon Marshall for. Not to mention Brandon Marshall had a better season then all of them.

So you try and disregard Brandon Marshall's best season but talk about receivers age 25 and under who ONLY have one great season to talk about.

 

Those one great seasons were still more impressive then Marshal's one great season. They weren't targeted anywhere near as much as Marshall and still put up elite numbers that surpassed or matched Marshall's in every category except yards and catches. The two stats that benefit the most from getting thrown at a lot.

 

So his bulk stats paint a picture of an elite receiver combined with the fact he just had his best season to date. So does that reasoning make him an elite receiver? You try and disregard his last season saying it's only one season. The thing about that claim is that Brandon Marshall has a resume to back that up.

 

You're over-complicating it.

 

This is no different then people claiming Stafford to be "overrated" and an average QB, and shooting down the amount of yards he's thrown for claiming that it's only a result of him throwing the ball a lot.

 

Or the ones who discard Luck's 4500+ yards and saying it's a result of him trowing a ton as well.

 

Now you say he falls short to other elite receivers. Outside of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall can hold his own from a production standpoint. Now if we are talking heralded guys like you said, it has to be receivers that have been consistent throughout their careers. The only other guys outside the top 3 that fall in that category that are still consistently having good seasons are Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, Steve Smith, Marques Colston and Wes Welker. Brandon Marshall had better seasons than all of those guys. Outside of that group though, we are talking young receivers that have only put together 1-2 good seasons. And one season doesn't seem to mean much to you. So logically, it would seem that Brandon Marshall should be in your top group according to your reasoning.

 

You know all those guys you just listed? Yea. Marshall is in the same tier as they are at this point. Throw in Greg Jennings and Vincent Jackson into that group and throw out Welker. The only reason he has "outperformed" them as you like to put it?

 

Because he's been fed the ball more then all of them.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Also I don't agree with calling someone overrated because of a zone blocking scheme this goes for Foster, Morris, and others.....because the reality is that zone blocking requires a smarter running back who is extremely decicisve and quick. It doesn't just magically produce you yards a runner has to really understand where the creases will be and where the defense is playing in order to break yards. Saying that other schemes require to create offense is also false because every play is drawn up to score in theory, you don't draw up plays telling the running back ok you have to break these two tackles cause we won't block them...that's just a bad running game and while the back might be a beast to create his runs you can't knock a guy for having a run game in which he doesn't have to create as much (that's the objective)

 

Vision and patience are great attributes that while fans love to discount, GMs and coaches salivate over.

 

But still, have you seen Foster when it comes to breaking tackles? He gets taken down extremely easy.

 

Especially last year. That tells you he's overrated. He's still a top 10 back, but a lot of that success comes from the great blocking in front of him.

 

Morris is a different story because he can break tackles, but it's clear watching him play that he's benefiting from a great blocking scheme. He's good, but not as great as his number indicate.

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

For me, it's Mike Wallace. He's inconsistent, has drops, a huge risk/reward player if you ask me, but if you place him in the right system...he could be a top 5 WR..but now that he's with the Phins...don't expect him to be anything too special with Tannenhill.

 

A few months ago you were begging for the Falcons to nab Wallace. Here's why you're wrong.

 

-Wallace has never been inconsistent until this season when the entire offense hit a snag when Ben went down for three games and had fucking Batch and Leftwich throwing to them. Yes, he had two one-catch games with Ben, but no WR is infallible, especially when they're suddenly thrust into a new system and his QB is running for his life every down because his already suspect OL is mostly injured. Despite all of that Wallace put up a decent 836 yards and 8 TDs in 15 games.

 

Compare Wallace's game log to that of Calvin Johnson, who just turned in the most yardage ever with a healthy QB, a proven system (of simply targeting him every down), and a QB who threw 727 passes. Calvin had a couple games of under 50 yards (34 and 46, if you're too lazy to click the link). Wallace notched 8 TDs to Calvin's 5.

 

Compare that to Brandon Marshall, whom you seem to think isn't overrated, who logged a 21 yard and 24 yard game this season with almost the exact same situation as Calvin. Wallace had 8 TDs to Brandon's 11, only his second double digit TD season. Brandon's played 3 more seasons than Wallace, yet only has 12 more TDs (32 to 45). So Wallace needs 4 TDs per season to match Brandon at the 7 year mark.

 

How about Andre Johnson? 21, 15, 35. Andre had 4 TDs this season and has played 6 more seasons than Wallace, yet only has 24 more TDs. Again, Wallace needs 4 TDs per season to match Andre at the same point in their careers.

 

 

-Thought I was finished? You mentioned drops. Wallace had 6 drops this season, tying him for 38th most in the league this year. Soooo many drops.

 

Notable players that had more drops than Wallace this season, starting with our league leaders:

Wes Welker - 15

Calvin Johnson - 14

Brandon Marshall - 13

Eric Decker - 12

Victor Cruz - 12

Demaryius Thomas - 11

Dez Bryant - 11

Reggie Wayne - 10

A.J. Green - 10

Andre Johnson - 9

Steve Smith - 8

Jordy Nelson - 8

Marques Colston - 8

Michael Crabtree - 7

Julio Jones - 7

...

 

Last year Wallace had 4 drops, or 54th in the league. I'll make a shorter list this time:

Roddy White - 15

Brandon Marshall (surprise) - 14

Wes Welker - 13

Victor Cruz - 11

Michael Crabtree - 9

Eric Decker - 9

Hakeem Nicks - 8

Vincent Jackson - 8

Julio Jones - 8

Calvin Johnson - 7

Anquan Boldin - 7

...

 

His worst season, drop-wise, was 2010 where he was 19th in the league with 7:

Brandon Marshall (noticing a trend?) - 13

Wes Welker - 13

Reggie Wayne - 9

Roddy White - 9

Greg Jennings - 7

Jordy Nelson - 7

 

 

-Risk/reward? On what planet is it a risk to throw to one of the league's best WRs?

[KempBolt 498]

Total balls dropped is kind of a worthless stat. The more meaningful one is balls dropped per target. And Wallace had one drop for every 20 targets, which is pretty good. Welker had a drop at about every 12th target.

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

Total balls dropped is kind of a worthless stat. The more meaningful one is balls dropped per target. And Wallace had one drop for every 20 targets, which is pretty good. Welker had a drop at about every 12th target.

 

Only as worthless as any volume stat. Yards, catches, TDs, interceptions, sacks, et cetera. Most here could tell you that I'm one of the proponents of average stats over volume, but I'm too tired and lazy to sit and do a bunch of math. The volume of drops paints a picture, albeit a broad one. The point is still made either way.

[Dutch 874]

Is it a weak argument?

 

He caught 60% of the passes thrown his direction, and averaged 13 YPC. That in of itself tells you how much he was force fed the ball.

 

When a guy catches that little of passes thrown his direction, has bellow average YPC among starting receivers and still puts up 1500 yards? It means he's not as good as his numbers would indicate.

 

Brandon Marshall caught 61% of his passes. Calvin Johnson caught 60% of his passes. YPC isn't correlated with how much he's forced the ball. His YPC show he wasn't a huge down the field threat. It shows that he was more of a possession receiver; especially considering how many receptions he had. He wasn't a down the field big play guy last season. He would just eat you up throughout the field from first down to first down moving the chains.

 

 

 

There's a lot wrong with comparing AJ's situation with any Marshall has ever been in.

 

Over the past couple of seasons including especially last yea, he has played on a balanced team that runs the ball in and around the redzone.

 

I'm sorry, I didn't realize the only time WR's can score is when they are in the redzone. Someone of Andre Johnson's stature didn't seemed limited in that regard... Honestly though, that doesn't matter at all and in no way am I saying that Marshall is better than Andre because he's not.

 

And over the seasons where AJ was targeted heavy, 2009, 2008, he still wasn't fed the ball as much as Marshall has in his career.

 

Actually, Andre Johnson was fed the ball more than Marshall in 2009. Andre Johnson was targeted 171 times with 101 receptions and a 59% caught rate. Brandon Marshall was targeted 154 times with 101 receptions with a 66% catch rate. Andre Johnson still had the better season but Andre Johnson is the better receiver; there's no argument there. Over a 60% in catch percentage is generally pretty good especially considering the numbers he put up. Just because you throw the receiver the ball a lot doesn't mean he will make plays. With 193 targets, 118 receptions and 11 drops (129 passes he touched), that says a lot about the QB play more then anything; or cornerback play but Brandon Marshall got the best out of most of his matchups. He's had Jay Cutler and Chad Henne as his QBs. His production is what it is.

 

Those one great seasons were still more impressive then Marshal's one great season. They weren't targeted anywhere near as much as Marshall and still put up elite numbers that surpassed or matched Marshall's in every category except yards and catches. The two stats that benefit the most from getting thrown at a lot.

 

Oh, like Calvin Johnson's reception and yards and lack of TDs?

You're still over emphasizing targets. What matters most in targets is target %; (catch %); rate of success and his actual production. A WR can't help how many times a QB throws his way. All he can do is catch the ball.

 

 

You're over-complicating it.

 

This is no different then people claiming Stafford to be "overrated" and an average QB, and shooting down the amount of yards he's thrown for claiming that it's only a result of him throwing the ball a lot.

 

Or the ones who discard Luck's 4500+ yards and saying it's a result of him trowing a ton as well.

 

People are calling Matthew Stafford overrated because he has Calvin Johnson. Luck is a rookie and doesn't belong in any top categories until his career establishes some form of consistency.

 

You know all those guys you just listed? Yea. Marshall is in the same tier as they are at this point. Throw in Greg Jennings and Vincent Jackson into that group and throw out Welker. The only reason he has "outperformed" them as you like to put it?

 

Because he's been fed the ball more then all of them.

 

How much you get fed the ball doesn't matter. All that matters is target % which is the success rate and drops. The average rate of success is all that matters.

Edited June 23, 2013 by dutchff7

[BC 331]

Earl Thomas, Brandon Browner

 

Can we find moments of weakness outside of the playoff game at the Georgia Dome against Julio and Roddy where we didn't have Chris Clemons? I'm sure you can, just want to hear the premise.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Brandon Marshall caught 61% of his passes. Calvin Johnson caught 60% of his passes. YPC isn't correlated with how much he's forced the ball. His YPC show he wasn't a huge down the field threat. It shows that he was more of a possession receiver; especially considering how many receptions he had. He wasn't a down the field big play guy last season. He would just eat you up throughout the field from first down to first down moving the chains.

 

When you consider the type of routes Marshall runs, and what his route tree is based off off, that 61% catch rate is pretty bad. Especially if you want to call him a possession receiver, and he's supposed to be a top 5 receiver.

 

Comparing the two's catch percentage tells you nothing because CJ and Marshall have completely different route trees that they've run their entire career.

 

I'm sorry, I didn't realize the only time WR's can score is when they are in the redzone. Someone of Andre Johnson's stature didn't seemed limited in that regard... Honestly though, that doesn't matter at all and in no way am I saying that Marshall is better than Andre because he's not.

 

You're missing the point.

 

The Texans run the ball a lot when they are in the redzone, so as a receiver it further decreases the opportunities to get targets in the redzone. If the Texans passed the ball more inside the 20, then Andre's TDs would probably go up.

 

Actually, Andre Johnson was fed the ball more than Marshall in 2009. Andre Johnson was targeted 171 times with 101 receptions and a 59% caught rate. Brandon Marshall was targeted 154 times with 101 receptions with a 66% catch rate. Andre Johnson still had the better season but Andre Johnson is the better receiver; there's no argument there. Over a 60% in catch percentage is generally pretty good especially considering the numbers he put up. Just because you throw the receiver the ball a lot doesn't mean he will make plays. With 193 targets, 118 receptions and 11 drops (129 passes he touched), that says a lot about the QB play more then anything; or cornerback play but Brandon Marshall got the best out of most of his matchups. He's had Jay Cutler and Chad Henne as his QBs. His production is what it is.

 

Here's what matters. If Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall were to be targeted the same amount of times, Andre Johnson would have more yards. Cross out Andre Johnson's name and replace it with a different receiver that has been bought up in this conversation and more then likely you'd get the same result.

 

That tells you all you need to know. And yes, it starts and ends with YPC.

 

IDK why anybody would bring up the QBs throwing to them, it's irrelevant. CJ had a million QBs in 2008 who were either beyond their prime and weren't all that good to begin with, or sucked completely. He still put up a better season then any Marshall has ever put up. Even when he was with Cutler and Shanaham. AJ Green has been quarterbacked by Andy Dalton, the text book definition of being average and has overthrown and under-thrown an obscene amount of passes to AJ. That hasn't stopped him from playing great.

 

Oh, like Calvin Johnson's reception and yards and lack of TDs?

 

Comparing this situation to CJ's makes absolutely no sense. Marshall doesn't get the attention that CJ gets in the redzone.

 

And CJ was tackled at or near the apposing 1 yard line 5 times last year.

 

You're still over emphasizing targets. What matters most in targets is target %; (catch %); rate of success and his actual production. A WR can't help how many times a QB throws his way. All he can do is catch the ball.

 

People are calling Matthew Stafford overrated because he has Calvin Johnson. Luck is a rookie and doesn't belong in any top categories until his career establishes some form of consistency.

 

How much you get fed the ball doesn't matter. All that matters is target % which is the success rate and drops. The average rate of success is all that matters.

 

Lemme put it to you this way:

 

It required Brandon Marshall to have the ball thrown his direction almost 40% of the Bear's total attempts for him to have his best season to date. When you get fed the ball 40% of the time your QB drops back, you're gonna put up amazing numbers.

 

Put that into perspective for you. Vincent Jackson with Freeman throwing to him was targeted 26% of the time. CJ was targeted around 29% of the time. Nobody in the top 10 even comes 5% close to being targeted as much as him.

 

He's the poster boy for inefficiency among the top receivers in the league.

[Bay 2,003]

[Dutch 874]

PART ONE

 

When you consider the type of routes Marshall runs, and what his route tree is based off off, that 61% catch rate is pretty bad. Especially if you want to call him a possession receiver, and he's supposed to be a top 5 receiver.

 

Comparing the two's catch percentage tells you nothing because CJ and Marshall have completely different route trees that they've run their entire career.

 

Lol, don't turn this into a circular argument please. Don't continue to bring up the "simple routes argument" like it's really valid. It's so simple that it can't be stopped. Like I already said, Randy Moss ran like 2 routes his entire career and he's considered one of the greats of all time. Arguably Randy Moss's best year with Tom Brady when he broke Rice's record and caught 23 TDs running basically one route garnered only 62%; only 1% more than Marshall's season. The routes he runs should get more production lol... If the essence of WR was that easy, pretty sure everyone would do it or defenses would crack the code and stop these "simple routes". Drop the "simple route" argument please because it's pretty weak. Marshall's routes are no where as simple as you claim. The best route is when you gain separation and/or catch the ball. Brandon Marshall does that.

 

Also, Brandon Marshall was 7th in the league with 18 catches over 20 yards are more. Those are semi explosive. He was 29th in the league in catches over 40 yards with only 2 though.

 

Furthermore on Calvin Johnson, please don't act like he has a plethora of different routes. Yes he has gotten better at route running than in the past but most of his plays came from going long and out jumping defenders. But the production is what it is.

 

 

You're missing the point.

 

The Texans run the ball a lot when they are in the redzone, so as a receiver it further decreases the opportunities to get targets in the redzone. If the Texans passed the ball more inside the 20, then Andre's TDs would probably go up.

 

No, you're missing the point. The WRs have an additional 80 yards of field to score TDs. I'm not much for hypotheticals. If Marshall had a more accurate QB, his catch% would probably go up. If the Eagles put DeSean Jackson in the slot, he may be more productive. See? The Texans ran their offense the way they

deemed necessary. The Texans didn't always have that philosophy either. What about before Arian Foster? What about when Dom Capers was the head coach? Hypotheticals create too many factors and endless and unquantifiable arguments. The situation was what it was.

 

Here's what matters. If Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall were to be targeted the same amount of times, Andre Johnson would have more yards. Cross out Andre Johnson's name and replace it with a different receiver that has been bought up in this conversation and more then likely you'd get the same result.

 

More hypotheticals. How many times were they targeted? Now the situation changes to when those yards and incompletes occurred especially seeing as though Brandon Marshall had a higher volume of balls thrown to him. Brandon Marshall had 75 incompletions. What if he was targeted as many times as a Julio Jones 129 times. Marshall had 118 receptions. That's only 11 incompletions. Those other 64 incompletions that Marshall originally had could have happened afterwards. Like I said, that hypothetical scenario changes to when those incompletions or yards occurred. More then likely doesn't prove results.

 

Also, stop making this an Andre Johnson vs Brandon Marshall thing. No one is saying that Marshall is better. You tried to slight Brandon Marshall because he only reached double digit TDs twice. I simply mentioned Andre Johnson's TD situation just to show that you don't have to have double digit TD seasons to be considered great. I get it, Andre Johnson is better. We share the same sentiment in that regard

Edited June 23, 2013 by dutchff7

[Dutch 874]

PART 2

 

That tells you all you need to know. And yes, it starts and ends with YPC.

 

Please tell me the equation of catch % that involves YPC. I'm in the nfl. I run 1 yard routes and get tackled immediately. The QB targets me for a total of 50 times. I catch the ball 50 times. OMG, I'm so good. I have a 100% catch rate. But wait... I only have 50 yards... Targets and receptions determine catch %. YPC only determines how many yards you gained when you catch the ball. That completely takes out the target aspect and then you have no equation.

 

IDK why anybody would bring up the QBs throwing to them, it's irrelevant. CJ had a million QBs in 2008 who were either beyond their prime and weren't all that good to begin with, or sucked completely. He still put up a better season then any Marshall has ever put up. Even when he was with Cutler and Shanaham.

 

Um, you might want to do a little research on your own receiver. Calvin Johnson had 78 receptions (151 targets), 1331 yards, 12 TDs, and catch rate of 52%. Brandon Marshall just put up a better season than that so that makes you wrong. Also, let's not turn this into a Calvin Johnson vs a Brandon Marshall thing either. Calvin Johnson is the far superior receiver. Again, I only bring up points to make you aware of your own contradictions.

 

AJ Green has been quarterbacked by Andy Dalton, the text book definition of being average and has overthrown and under-thrown an obscene amount of passes to AJ. That hasn't stopped him from playing great.

 

A.J Green actually had a lower catch % with 59%. But guess, what, he's still the man. Catch rate percentage is important, but the production is what it is at the end of the day. 59% isn't bad.

 

 

 

Comparing this situation to CJ's makes absolutely no sense. Marshall doesn't get the attention that CJ gets in the redzone.

 

You didn't even correctly answer my rebuttal. You said

 

They weren't targeted anywhere near as much as Marshall and still put up elite numbers that surpassed or matched Marshall's in every category except yards and catches. The two stats that benefit the most from getting thrown at a lot.

 

I said:

Oh, like Calvin Johnson's reception and yards and lack of TDs?

 

You completely missed the point. My only point was you were using your own argument against your own receiver. Calvin Johnson was targeted more than anyone in the league and the two stats that benefited from that was his yards and catches. I won't fail to mention at an exceedingly higher rate. But ofcourse he would, he's Calvin Johnson.

 

And CJ was tackled at or near the apposing 1 yard line 5 times last year.

 

Uhh... That's no ones fault but his ? Is that suppose to count for something lol? I'm sure every offensive player in the league can tell you a story about what if he had beat that last guy.

 

 

Lemme put it to you this way:

 

It required Brandon Marshall to have the ball thrown his direction almost 40% of the Bear's total attempts for him to have his best season to date. When you get fed the ball 40% of the time your QB drops back, you're gonna put up amazing numbers.

 

No, you just assume that people could put up amazing numbers. A lot of receivers probably couldn't even handle being 40% of their offense AND still have a 61% success rate. Being 40% of your offense as a WR is a compliment. Especially with him being the ONLY receiver and defenses can focus solely on him. But he still can't be contained. The offense ran through ONE man. You can't throw dirt on his game. MJD was like 45% of his offense last year right? He still put up the numbers he put up. Look at a lot of the other receivers success rate % and they are ALL in the 60%ish range. The only receiver with 80+ catches with a success catch rate % over 70 is Randall Cobb with a 77% (Rodgers is a boss). Brandon Marshall's success rate wasn't bad at all. No matter how many times he was thrown the ball, you can't juke the stats; 61% success is 61% and that's good.

 

Put that into perspective for you. Vincent Jackson with Freeman throwing to him was targeted 26% of the time. CJ was targeted around 29% of the time. Nobody in the top 10 even comes 5% close to being targeted as much as him.

 

Dude what are you talking about? Calvin Johnson was targeted 204 times; more than anyone in the league. He was thrown to 29% of the time on his team; still less than Brandon Marshall's total targets which was 193 times. Brandon Marshall was thrown at 40% of the time on his team which should help put into perspective for YOU how much his team relied on him. Get your facts straight bro.

 

He's the poster boy for inefficiency among the top receivers in the league.

 

61% says other wise. Numbers don't lie.

 

If Brandon Marshall is inefficient at 61% catch rate, here is everyone else who follows:

 

Calvin Johnson 60%

Reggie Wayne 54%

A.J Green 59%

Victor Cruz 60%

Steve Smith 53%

Vincent Jackson 49%

Larry Fitzgerald 46%

Mike Wallace 54%

Stevie Johnson 53%

 

All good to great WRs on that list. Some of them had awesome years. What do you have to say about that and please don't bring up YPC because that has NOTHING to do with efficiency.

 

Here, check it out yourself. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2012/

Edited June 23, 2013 by dutchff7

[SteelersNation36 128]

 

No, you just assume that people could put up amazing numbers. A lot of receivers probably couldn't even handle being 40% of their offense AND still have a 61% success rate. Being 40% of your offense as a WR is a compliment. Especially with him being the ONLY receiver and defenses can focus solely on him. But he still can't be contained. The offense ran through ONE man. You can't throw dirt on his game. MJD was like 45% of his offense last year right? He still put up the numbers he put up. Look at a lot of the other receivers success rate % and they are ALL in the 60%ish range. The only receiver with 80+ catches with a success catch rate % over 70 is Randall Cobb with a 77% (Rodgers is a boss). Brandon Marshall's success rate wasn't bad at all. No matter how many times he was thrown the ball, you can't juke the stats; 61% success is 61% and that's good.

 

 

 

Uh...MJD was hurt most the year, he only playhed 6 games before he got hurt.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

PART ONE

Lol, don't turn this into a circular argument please. Don't continue to bring up the "simple routes argument" like it's really valid. It's so simple that it can't be stopped. Like I already said, Randy Moss ran like 2 routes his entire career and he's considered one of the greats of all time. Arguably Randy Moss's best year with Tom Brady when he broke Rice's record and caught 23 TDs running basically one route garnered only 62%; only 1% more than Marshall's season. The routes he runs should get more production lol... If the essence of WR was that easy, pretty sure everyone would do it or defenses would crack the code and stop these "simple routes". Drop the "simple route" argument please because it's pretty weak. Marshall's routes are no where as simple as you claim. The best route is when you gain separation and/or catch the ball. Brandon Marshall does that.

 

Also, Brandon Marshall was 7th in the league with 18 catches over 20 yards are more. Those are semi explosive. He was 29th in the league in catches over 40 yards with only 2 though.

 

Furthermore on Calvin Johnson, please don't act like he has a plethora of different routes. Yes he has gotten better at route running than in the past but most of his plays came from going long and out jumping defenders. But the production is what it is.

 

If you chose to ignore the type of routes they run then that's a mistake on your part.

 

It's not a weak argument because, it's only because of those simple routes that he's as "great" as he is.

 

Ask any large group of #1 receivers to run those same concepts and have the ball thrown to them 40% of the time and you'll get the same results Marshall gave you. Nothing impressive, especially when you're only catching 61% of them.

 

No, you're missing the point. The WRs have an additional 80 yards of field to score TDs. I'm not much for hypotheticals. If Marshall had a more accurate QB, his catch% would probably go up. If the Eagles put DeSean Jackson in the slot, he may be more productive. See? The Texans ran their offense the way they

deemed necessary. The Texans didn't always have that philosophy either. What about before Arian Foster? What about when Dom Capers was the head coach? Hypotheticals create too many factors and endless and unquantifiable arguments. The situation was what it was.

 

Bottom line is that neither one of these guys are elite when it comes to scoring TDs, albeit for different reasons doesn't matter. But still, Andre Johnson is elite in multiple categories. What categories is Marshall elite at?

 

More hypotheticals. How many times were they targeted? Now the situation changes to when those yards and incompletes occurred especially seeing as though Brandon Marshall had a higher volume of balls thrown to him. Brandon Marshall had 75 incompletions. What if he was targeted as many times as a Julio Jones 129 times. Marshall had 118 receptions. That's only 11 incompletions. Those other 64 incompletions that Marshall originally had could have happened afterwards. Like I said, that hypothetical scenario changes to when those incompletions or yards occurred. More then likely doesn't prove results.

 

This is pretty much common sense stuff. The NFL is a league of opportunity. An indicator to see how well a player would do with more opportunities is to see what he does already with the ones he's given.

 

See; Demaryus Thomas.

 

Also, stop making this an Andre Johnson vs Brandon Marshall thing. No one is saying that Marshall is better. You tried to slight Brandon Marshall because he only reached double digit TDs twice. I simply mentioned Andre Johnson's TD situation just to show that you don't have to have double digit TD seasons to be considered great. I get it, Andre Johnson is better. We share the same sentiment in that regard

 

I only bought up Andre Johnson because you bought him up. If it made you feel any better, I even stopped comparing him to Johnson and put the likes of Vincent Jackson and the young receivers to compare him to.

 

On the last post I made I even said, "cross out Andre Johnson and bring in any receiver that's been bought up". Because I have no intentions of comparing the two, in fact, the only times that I've straight up compared the two is when TDs have been bought up, because you bought it up.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

PART 2

 

 

 

Please tell me the equation of catch % that involves YPC. I'm in the nfl. I run 1 yard routes and get tackled immediately. The QB targets me for a total of 50 times. I catch the ball 50 times. OMG, I'm so good. I have a 100% catch rate. But wait... I only have 50 yards... Targets and receptions determine catch %. YPC only determines how many yards you gained when you catch the ball. That completely takes out the target aspect and then you have no equation.

 

 

 

Um, you might want to do a little research on your own receiver. Calvin Johnson had 78 receptions (151 targets), 1331 yards, 12 TDs, and catch rate of 52%. Brandon Marshall just put up a better season than that so that makes you wrong. Also, let's not turn this into a Calvin Johnson vs a Brandon Marshall thing either. Calvin Johnson is the far superior receiver. Again, I only bring up points to make you aware of your own contradictions.

 

 

 

A.J Green actually had a lower catch % with 59%. But guess, what, he's still the man. Catch rate percentage is important, but the production is what it is at the end of the day. 59% isn't bad.

 

 

 

 

 

You didn't even correctly answer my rebuttal. You said

 

 

 

I said:

 

 

You completely missed the point. My only point was you were using your own argument against your own receiver. Calvin Johnson was targeted more than anyone in the league and the two stats that benefited from that was his yards and catches. I won't fail to mention at an exceedingly higher rate. But ofcourse he would, he's Calvin Johnson.

 

 

 

Uhh... That's no ones fault but his ? Is that suppose to count for something lol? I'm sure every offensive player in the league can tell you a story about what if he had beat that last guy.

 

 

 

 

No, you just assume that people could put up amazing numbers. A lot of receivers probably couldn't even handle being 40% of their offense AND still have a 61% success rate. Being 40% of your offense as a WR is a compliment. Especially with him being the ONLY receiver and defenses can focus solely on him. But he still can't be contained. The offense ran through ONE man. You can't throw dirt on his game. MJD was like 45% of his offense last year right? He still put up the numbers he put up. Look at a lot of the other receivers success rate % and they are ALL in the 60%ish range. The only receiver with 80+ catches with a success catch rate % over 70 is Randall Cobb with a 77% (Rodgers is a boss). Brandon Marshall's success rate wasn't bad at all. No matter how many times he was thrown the ball, you can't juke the stats; 61% success is 61% and that's good.

 

 

 

Dude what are you talking about? Calvin Johnson was targeted 204 times; more than anyone in the league. He was thrown to 29% of the time on his team; still less than Brandon Marshall's total targets which was 193 times. Brandon Marshall was thrown at 40% of the time on his team which should help put into perspective for YOU how much his team relied on him. Get your facts straight bro.

 

 

 

61% says other wise. Numbers don't lie.

 

If Brandon Marshall is inefficient at 61% catch rate, here is everyone else who follows:

 

Calvin Johnson 60%

Reggie Wayne 54%

A.J Green 59%

Victor Cruz 60%

Steve Smith 53%

Vincent Jackson 49%

Larry Fitzgerald 46%

Mike Wallace 54%

Stevie Johnson 53%

 

All good to great WRs on that list. Some of them had awesome years. What do you have to say about that and please don't bring up YPC because that has NOTHING to do with efficiency.

 

Here, check it out yourself. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2012/

 

I'm just gonna lump all this together, because you're barking up the wrong tree by trying to persistently bringing up catch %.

 

Catch percentage and total catches are extremely misleading because it discounts the fact that different WRs run different kind of routes that may or may not be easier to catch. And to a lesser extent, the fact that some receivers are in better positions to succeed already depending on QBs, etc.

 

Simply put, if receiver A needs a lot less opportunity- or in this case, throws made in his direction to put up great statistics in comparison with receiver B, receiver A is probably better. And that's where Marshall falls short of the big three, and the 2nd tier of wide receivers.

 

It's that simple...

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Also, I didn't catch your last tidbit about how YPC has nothing to do with efficiency. In what world does that make sense? It has everything to do with YPC.

 

English isn't my first language, but isn't being efficient essentially maximizing your production or getting the most out of the amount of opportunities you get?

[RazorStar 4,025]

Catch Rate also doesn't account for QB inaccuracy. I'm sure all of Luck's receivers look terrible by that measure because he only completed 54% of his passes.

[Jules 98]

Let me just get this off my chest right now. Peyton Manning is as overrated as it gets in the playoffs. I love the guy for everything he once did and meant to the Colts but my God....in the playoffs everything has to go right for his teams to win. EVERYTHING...from the weather to the team around him not making a single mistake at times to no key injuries. He does not CARRY teams in the playoffs like he does in the regular season. And the Manning face will rear it's head at some time.

 

If not for the 2006 postseason run and the return of Superman Bob Sanders where would we have been in the Manning era? That 4 game stretch at times IMO saved the Manning era in Indy in a way.

 

Sometimes I still in my head see Tracy Porter taking that ball to the house and then I remember literally falling out of my chair, no joke...I FELL OUT OF MY CHAIR. But, there is hope Denver fans, if it all clicks perfectly around Manning next postseason you have a chance to advance. If not then you might just lose to some WC team who got hot at the right time and who is a 8 to 10 point underdog.

[oochymp 2,393]

Let me just get this off my chest right now. Peyton Manning is as overrated as it gets in the playoffs. I love the guy for everything he once did and meant to the Colts but my God....in the playoffs everything has to go right for his teams to win. EVERYTHING...from the weather to the team around him not making a single mistake at times to no key injuries. He does not CARRY teams in the playoffs like he does in the regular season. And the Manning face will rear it's head at some time.

 

If not for the 2006 postseason run and the return of Superman Bob Sanders where would we have been in the Manning era? That 4 game stretch at times IMO saved the Manning era in Indy in a way.

 

Sometimes I still in my head see Tracy Porter taking that ball to the house and then I remember literally falling out of my chair, no joke...I FELL OUT OF MY CHAIR. But, there is hope Denver fans, if it all clicks perfectly around Manning next postseason you have a chance to advance. If not then you might just lose to some WC team who got hot at the right time and who is a 8 to 10 point underdog.

how is Peyton overrated in the playoffs? doesn't everyone pretty much know he sucks outside of the regular season?

[Crash 105]

Let me just get this off my chest right now. Peyton Manning is as overrated as it gets in the playoffs. I love the guy for everything he once did and meant to the Colts but my God....in the playoffs everything has to go right for his teams to win. EVERYTHING...from the weather to the team around him not making a single mistake at times to no key injuries. He does not CARRY teams in the playoffs like he does in the regular season. And the Manning face will rear it's head at some time.

 

If not for the 2006 postseason run and the return of Superman Bob Sanders where would we have been in the Manning era? That 4 game stretch at times IMO saved the Manning era in Indy in a way.

 

Sometimes I still in my head see Tracy Porter taking that ball to the house and then I remember literally falling out of my chair, no joke...I FELL OUT OF MY CHAIR. But, there is hope Denver fans, if it all clicks perfectly around Manning next postseason you have a chance to advance. If not then you might just lose to some WC team who got hot at the right time and who is a 8 to 10 point underdog.

smh this thought process amazes me. Manning could have a great game and throw for 3 touchdowns but because the defense can't stop someone he's a choke artist? Get real. It's a team sport and you need a team to win. Barely a handful of quarterbacks in NFL history could carry a entire team to victory especially in the playoffs

[Thanatos 2,847]

Manning turned the ball over three times that game, bro.

[Dutch 874]

If you chose to ignore the type of routes they run then that's a mistake on your part.

 

It's not a weak argument because, it's only because of those simple routes that he's as "great" as he is.

 

There is no mistake on my part, just you dancing around my arguments. First you, you're just claiming that Brandon Marshall runs simple routes without truly eludicating on the matter. That's a huge reason why it's weak. Then you danced around and completely ignored my Randy Moss comment. About Moss notoriously known for running two routes his entire career (9 route and hitch route) while in some of his best seasons having around the same catch% as Brandon Marshall and some seasons having below 60% catch rate.

 

When you consider the type of routes Marshall runs, and what his route tree is based off off, that 61% catch rate is pretty bad.

 

So basically you're calling some of Randy Moss's best seasons were bad. While Randy Moss is the better receiver and garnered more production out of his catches, what you need to realize is that yards per catch has no correlation to catch %. Your logic is confounding; only targets and receptions affect catch %. I really don't know how else to put it, but when you do the catch % equation, tell me if yards has anything to do with efficiency.

 

Ask any large group of #1 receivers to run those same concepts and have the ball thrown to them 40% of the time and you'll get the same results Marshall gave you. Nothing impressive, especially when you're only catching 61% of them.

 

More hypotheticals.... Something else you're failing to realize is that the catch % is CONSTANT. Brandon Marshall's catch % wouldn't change if he was only 20% of his teams offense; If Jay Cutler had 100 more attempts to other receivers which would lower Brandon Marshall's 40% overall offensive production, Marshall's 61% catch rate would stay the same (constant). His 61% catch rate is his OWN stat. Marshall's 193 targets, 118 receptions for 61% would be 61% on ANY TEAM that he plays on. The Chicago Bears QB's total attempts and lack of WR diversity has NOTHING to do with Brandon Marshall's catch %. You're combining two stats that don't correlate with his other. You're confused bro.

 

Bottom line is that neither one of these guys are elite when it comes to scoring TDs, albeit for different reasons doesn't matter. But still, Andre Johnson is elite in multiple categories. What categories is Marshall elite at?

 

You're failing to realize that you are still comparing them. Brandon Marshall has averaged 98 catches, had four 100 reception seasons out of his 6 starting seasons and has averaged over 1200 yards. If you look at WR's over the past 6 years, Marshall's, production can match up (comparable) against anyone's.

 

 

This is pretty much common sense stuff. The NFL is a league of opportunity. An indicator to see how well a player would do with more opportunities is to see what he does already with the ones he's given.

 

Um, is that not what catch % is??? Brandon Marshall capitalized off of 61% of the opportunities he was given. He accounted for 118 receptions, 1508 yards and 11 TDs. He also had 12.8 YPC. You are trying to slight Brandon Marshall for his YPC. If his YPC were higher, the only thing that would change is that his yards would be higher; not his catch%. Calvin Johnson had a less catch % than Marshall but he had more yards; thus a higher YPC. Regardless though, you can't argue with 1500 yards.

 

See; Demaryus Thomas.

 

See Demaryius Thomas and his 1 good year? Hmmm, I think we been through this already. Your reasoning is so awesome. Discredit Brandon Marshall best season and say

 

You're talking about one season.

 

but continuously bring up receivers that have ONLY done it in one season. Such a good argument.

 

 

I only bought up Andre Johnson because you bought him up. If it made you feel any better, I even stopped comparing him to Johnson and put the likes of Vincent Jackson and the young receivers to compare him to.

 

Yes, the Vincent Jackson that an extremely low catch% of only 49%. So he should be horrible in your eyes based off your own arguments.

 

On the last post I made I even said, "cross out Andre Johnson and bring in any receiver that's been bought up". Because I have no intentions of comparing the two, in fact, the only times that I've straight up compared the two is when TDs have been bought up, because you bought it up.

 

More hypotheticals AND you compared yet again... You just said

 

But still, Andre Johnson is elite in multiple categories. What categories is Marshall elite at?

 

So you had no intention of comparing them outside of the TDs but continue comparing them and say Andre is elite in multiple categories and ask what categories Marshall is elite in... Dude, you're not even keeping track of what you're saying...

Edited June 24, 2013 by dutchff7

[Dutch 874]

I'm just gonna lump all this together, because you're barking up the wrong tree by trying to persistently bringing up catch %.

 

If I recall correctly, you brought up the catch %.

He caught 60% of the passes thrown his direction

 

and then say

 

Catch percentage and total catches are extremely misleading because it discounts the fact that different WRs run different kind of routes that may or may not be easier to catch. And to a lesser extent, the fact that some receivers are in better positions to succeed already depending on QBs, etc.

 

So noooow catch % is misleading when you brought if up first as an argument AGAINST Brandon Marshall. Lol man, make up your mind. Catch % is only the success rate of a QB to WR combination. Compare this to inventors. How many times have inventors failed before actually having success? Same thing here. The success which in this case is the production is all that matters at the end of the day.

 

Simply put, if receiver A needs a lot less opportunity- or in this case, throws made in his direction to put up great statistics in comparison with receiver B, receiver A is probably better. And that's where Marshall falls short of the big three, and the 2nd tier of wide receivers.

 

It's that simple...

 

Now, I'm going to put it simply to you. All that matters at the end of the day is the production of the receiver. What does it matter if a receiver has 100 yards on 4 catches averaging 25 YPC compared to a receiver that has 10 catches for 100 yards with 10 YPC? Whether you gash the defense down the field or eat and grind them up down the field on a multitude of drives. What's the difference? Is the production still not the same? Is the production still not effective? You're producing a weak argument because at the end of the day, the production is what it is. 1500 yards is 1500 yards regardless of the YPC. Brandon Marshall ranked 3rd in the league in 1st downs with 75 total which attributes to how effective he was.

 

The presentation of your arguments have been generally weak. You presented A LOT of hypotheticals (what if scenarios; take this receiver and replace with this etc etc) which always makes for weak debates. You also had generalizations with no substance such as the "weak route argument" that you presented and never truly elucidated on how his routes were simple/weak (just claimed them to be), produced a lot of circular arguments, and contradicted yourself a lot. Example: You bring up catch % as an argument against Brandon Marshall and THEN turn around and claim catch % to be a misleading stat. You even brought up your own receiver in an argument comparing stats and you were dead wrong and you've disregarded and failed to answer some of my arguments. Like the Randy Moss argument who ran simple routes and had catch %'s around 60's which you would proclaim to be bad.

 

This is just becoming repetitive. My entire point is that you can not argue against great production and consistency. The production is what it is at the end of the day and you can't throw dirt on anyones game that produces at the level. I think I've said everything I wanted to say in my defense of Brandon Marshall and I refuse to have the same arguments over and over again. You've even used your own arguments against yourself. You can believe what you want to believe but I'm not going to put anything more into this debate.

Edited June 24, 2013 by dutchff7