How many games do the Vikings win in 2013?

[Turry 755]

What has ponder shown you in the past two years that he is good?

[Piggly Wiggly 960]

The only thing you're right about is AP regressing, which might even be the wrong term.

''Might'' be the wrong term? lol.

 

re•gres•sion (rɪˈgrɛʃ ən)

 

n.

1. the act of going back to a previous place or state; return or reversion.

AP isn't going to break 2,000 yards again. He'll be good, but not nearly as great as he was last year.

 

And no, Kyle Rudolph isn't going to lead you to greatness, nor is your kicker. Neither will put you over the top.

 

Christian Ponder is not, and I repeat, not a good QB. It is what it is. Better take off those homer shades to realize that.

[Minny 33]

I got the Vikings at 9 wins, but even at that number, I don't feel very confident that they'll reach that number. There's just too many question marks to be any more confident. First and most obviously, Ponder needs to step it up. He had about an 8 game stretch last year where he was about the worst QB I'd ever seen. It was as if the only passes he was capable of completing were short passes in the flat. I'd like to see Musgrave dial up so more shots downfield this year and allow Ponder to test his arm (and hopefully, give him some more confidence). He didn't really get to do that last year. Secondly, and the area that doesn't get talked about enough imo, is the secondary. Over the past few years, the secondary has just straight-up not created enough turnovers. I believe they only had 10 interceptions last year, which was towards the bottom of the league. Thankfully though, I think alot of that was due to the soft cover 2 zone scheme the Vikings run, and it seems as though the addition of Rhodes implies that the Vikings will be looking to play more man to man coverage this year(considering both him and Cook are over 6 feet tall). This should hypothetically create more turnover opportunities for the defense, which in return will help take some pressure off of Ponder. It should be quite the interesting season, that's for sure.

[BwareDWare94 723]

I got the Vikings at 9 wins, but even at that number, I don't feel very confident that they'll reach that number. There's just too many question marks to be any more confident. First and most obviously, Ponder needs to step it up. He had about an 8 game stretch last year where he was about the worst QB I'd ever seen. It was as if the only passes he was capable of completing were short passes in the flat. I'd like to see Musgrave dial up so more shots downfield this year and allow Ponder to test his arm (and hopefully, give him some more confidence). He didn't really get to do that last year. Secondly, and the area that doesn't get talked about enough imo, is the secondary. Over the past few years, the secondary has just straight-up not created enough turnovers. I believe they only had 10 interceptions last year, which was towards the bottom of the league. Thankfully though, I think alot of that was due to the soft cover 2 zone scheme the Vikings run, and it seems as though the addition of Rhodes implies that the Vikings will be looking to play more man to man coverage this year(considering both him and Cook are over 6 feet tall). This should hypothetically create more turnover opportunities for the defense, which in return will help take some pressure off of Ponder. It should be quite the interesting season, that's for sure.

 

It is frustrating how soft of coverage the coaching calls for or allows, half the time. Very frustrating. However, I saw a lot of feistiness in last years corner group, and was really happy to see that. Hopefully that means progress.

 

Everybody's down on the Vikings, but their team looks a lot more solid than a lot of teams. They're certainly the second best team in the NFC North, as it stands, potentially the best if Green Bay's defense still sucks.

 

A lot of the Vikings weaknesses are the result of poor coaching. The defense plays WAY too soft at the end of games, and the playcalling on offense is just downright awful. I wish Bill Musgrave had been fired. You don't know if Ponder can throw down field if you never let him throw down field.

 

I expect to see the reigns off of Ponder, and improved defense, and an overall improved Vikings team. I may very well be wrong, but I just don't like how the other teams in the North look right now.

 

Let the season play out and decide, though.

[OSUViking 505]

 

 

Everybody's down on the Vikings, but their team looks a lot more solid than a lot of teams. They're certainly the second best team in the NFC North, as it stands, potentially the best if Green Bay's defense still sucks.

 

 

I don't think you can say who is the best or second best for certain. The NFC North is one of the most competitive divisions in the league, and if the Packers' defense does not improve, then it's a toss-up who wins the NFC North, IMO.

[KempBolt 498]

It is frustrating how soft of coverage the coaching calls for or allows, half the time. Very frustrating. However, I saw a lot of feistiness in last years corner group, and was really happy to see that. Hopefully that means progress.

 

Everybody's down on the Vikings, but their team looks a lot more solid than a lot of teams. They're certainly the second best team in the NFC North, as it stands, potentially the best if Green Bay's defense still sucks.

 

A lot of the Vikings weaknesses are the result of poor coaching. The defense plays WAY too soft at the end of games, and the playcalling on offense is just downright awful. I wish Bill Musgrave had been fired. You don't know if Ponder can throw down field if you never let him throw down field.

 

I expect to see the reigns off of Ponder, and improved defense, and an overall improved Vikings team. I may very well be wrong, but I just don't like how the other teams in the North look right now.

 

Let the season play out and decide, though.

 

Reminiscent of what was said regarding the Chiefs last offseason. The reality is that if you're below average at the QB position, you're probably not winning a ton of games unless something very unusual happens (like AP going off for 2097 yards), regardless of how good the rest of the team is. And since it's unlikely that AP does that again, I find it likewise unlikely that the Vikings have another PO bound season without major improvements from Ponder. It rides on him, bottom line.

[Minny 33]

Reminiscent of what was said regarding the Chiefs last offseason. The reality is that if you're below average at the QB position, you're probably not winning a ton of games unless something very unusual happens (like AP going off for 2097 yards), regardless of how good the rest of the team is.

 

The Chiefs also had a horrendous defense last year as well. Don't act like it was just Matt Cassel's fault. I'm a believer that Cassel's numbers were as bad as they were last year because the Chiefs were playing from behind every game. Cassel is not a guy who's going to carry a team on his back when they get into a hole. If the game stays close or his team actually has a lead, Cassel can be productive and not have to worry about slinging the ball around. I could be wrong, but that's just my theory.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Ponder won't get much better because he's really lacking in physical tools. Even if he maximizes his potential, its not going to be very high.

[KempBolt 498]

The Chiefs also had a horrendous defense last year as well. Don't act like it was just Matt Cassel's fault. I'm a believer that Cassel's numbers were as bad as they were last year because the Chiefs were playing from behind every game. Cassel is not a guy who's going to carry a team on his back when they get into a hole. If the game stays close or his team actually has a lead, Cassel can be productive and not have to worry about slinging the ball around. I could be wrong, but that's just my theory.

 

They stunk, but they had a lot of talent. You argue that Cassel could have been good if the defense had performed, but I would argue the opposite. Had Cassel and the offense not turned the ball over 37 times, and not gassed their defense because they couldn't sustain any drives, I think the defense would have been pretty decent. And it's a lot easier to believe that Cassel was the problem, when the defense was fielding Derrick Johnson, Brandon Flowers, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, Eric Berry, and Glen Dorsey.

 

But my point is that talented teams with bad QB play don't win consistently. They win in spurts under unusual circumstances, and then return to mediocrity or worse. That's why the Chiefs went 2-14 despite having Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Branden Albert, Ryan Lilja, Jon Asamoah, and Eric Winston in addition to the players I mentioned above.

 

And that's why I predict that the Vikings, even with Adrian Peterson, Greg Jennings, Kyle Rudolph, Matt Kalil, John Sullivan, Phil Loadholt, Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, Bryan Robinson, Chad Greenway, and Harrison Smith will regress in 2013 UNLESS Ponder steps up his game.

 

If Ponder does so, all bets are off.

[Minny 33]

Ponder won't get much better because he's really lacking in physical tools. Even if he maximizes his potential, its not going to be very high.

 

What physical tool is he lacking besides not having a cannon for an arm?. Even with it not being a cannon, it's still very underrated in comparison to the general public's perception. Ponder's problem is he tries to put touch on every pass he throws, even when it's not needed (slant routes, etc). It makes it appear as if he has a "noodle arm", when in reality he's just intentionally not throwing as hard as he can. For example, Ponder had a touchdown pass against the Falcons in 2011 where he threw it from the Falcons 48 yard line, and Harvin caught it in the BACK of the endzone. That's about a 58 yard throw, which is plenty of arm strength needed to be a good quarterback. Plus he's very mobile as well, which is a tool alot of QBs lack. So please tell me, what physical tool is he really lacking? And please don't say height. He's the same height as Rodgers and 2-3 inches taller than Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. It's a more overrated trait than arm strength.

Edited July 17, 2013 by Minny

[Minny 33]

my point is that talented teams with bad QB play don't win consistently. They win in spurts under unusual circumstances, and then return to mediocrity or worse. That's why the Chiefs went 2-14 despite having Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Branden Albert, Ryan Lilja, Jon Asamoah, and Eric Winston in addition to the players I mentioned above.

 

And that's why I predict that the Vikings, even with Adrian Peterson, Greg Jennings, Kyle Rudolph, Matt Kalil, John Sullivan, Phil Loadholt, Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, Bryan Robinson, Chad Greenway, and Harrison Smith will regress in 2013 UNLESS Ponder steps up his game.

 

If Ponder does so, all bets are off.

 

Fair enough. I can't disagree with any of your points. The 3rd year is supposed to be when a QB makes their biggest leap, so hopefully that holds true for Ponder. I just hope Bill Musgrave's playcalling isn't ultra conservative again this year, which I feel unfortunately will hinder Ponder from ever being able to grow.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

What physical tool is he lacking besides not having a cannon for an arm?. Even with it not being a cannon, it's still very underrated in comparison to the general public's perception. Ponder's problem is he tries to put touch on every pass he throws, even when it's not needed (slant routes, etc). It makes it appear as if he has a "noodle arm", when in reality he's just intentionally not throwing as hard as he can. For example, Ponder had a touchdown pass against the Falcons in 2011 where he threw it from the Falcons 48 yard line, and Harvin caught it in the BACK of the endzone. That's about a 58 yard throw, which is plenty of arm strength needed to be a good quarterback. Plus he's very mobile as well, which is a tool alot of QBs lack. So please tell me, what physical tool is he really lacking? And please don't say height. He's the same height as Rodgers and 2-3 inches taller than Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. It's a more overrated trait than arm strength.

 

Arm strength is not overrated. It's misinterpreted by some, but it's far from overrated, and when you have a very limited arm you have a limited ceiling unless if your other traits are more developed.

 

Mediocre/below average arm= mediocre to bellow average QB in just about every situation. And that's not going to get you anywhere unless you have an all star cast around him.

 

And that's at best. When you consider his awful footwork even with a clean pocket, shaky at best accuracy, decision making, vision, awareness.

[Minny 33]

Arm strength is not overrated. It's misinterpreted by some, but it's far from overrated, and when you have a very limited arm you have a limited ceiling unless if your other traits are more developed.

 

I'm glad you added that last part in there. Last year I think you could say Peyton Manning had the weakest arm of any starting QB in the NFL, and yet we all know how well he played. Arm strength is a nice added bonus, but it isn't a necessity to being a great QB. The mental aspects of the position are what truly define a particular player's ceiling in my opinion.

[KempBolt 498]

I'm glad you added that last part in there. Last year I think you could say Peyton Manning had the weakest arm of any starting QB in the NFL, and yet we all know how well he played. Arm strength is a nice added bonus, but it isn't a necessity to being a great QB. The mental aspects of the position are what truly define a particular player's ceiling in my opinion.

 

Another good example is Philip Rivers. From 2008-10, he threw the most successful deep ball in the NFL, and his arm strength is average. His YPA those seasons was 8.39, 8.75, and 8.71 (1st every season by very wide margins). He got it done with anticipation, timing, mechanics, accuracy, and middle of the road arm talent. Which also has much to do with his struggles in 11-12; he hasn't had the time in the pocket to wait for the right moment and he hasn't had the space to properly step into his throws.

[Mentch 42]

As a Vikings fan, my realistic expectations for this team is 5-11. We won a ton of close games against good teams last year, but there's no way we repeat that feat at all. Peterson will not be able to repeat his 2012 success by any means, he had to have a superhuman season just to get the Vikings to the playoffs

 

 

But the biggest reason is that I have absolutely no faith in Christian Ponder whatsoever. He has a tremendous O-line and the best RB in the league (maybe even best player in the league), and his stats last year were nothing short of mediocre. 80 QB rating?! Barely over 3000 yards passing?! 18 TDs to 12 INTs?! You have AP in the backfield and Percy Harvin on the wings and thats seriously all you can do? It's not like Kyle Rudolph made the Pro Bowl or anything last year either. Oh wait...

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

I'm glad you added that last part in there. Last year I think you could say Peyton Manning had the weakest arm of any starting QB in the NFL, and yet we all know how well he played. Arm strength is a nice added bonus, but it isn't a necessity to being a great QB. The mental aspects of the position are what truly define a particular player's ceiling in my opinion.

 

Even if that's the case. Outside of being mentally tough, what other aspect of quarterbacking has he shown flashes of that would lead you to believe he's going to be anything more then average?

[Minny 33]

Even if that's the case. Outside of being mentally tough, what other aspect of quarterbacking has he shown flashes of that would lead you to believe he's going to be anything more then average?

 

I wasn't referring to Ponder in particular when I was talking about the mental aspects of quarterbacking. I was just making a statement in general. As far as Ponder's "mental ability" goes, I would agree with you that he's been below average so far. He has slow anticipation and is skiddish in the pocket. I'm just hoping that those things will somewhat get ironed out now that he's in his 3rd season.

[Vin+ 3,121]

Well this certainly isn't going to help.

 

ESPN's Adam Schefter says the Vikings "won't hesitate" to turn to Matt Cassel if Christian Ponder struggles this season.

 

Per Schefter, there are people around the league who believe Cassel is "underrated." Those people apparently didn't watch the tape of Cassel's eight 2012 Chiefs starts, when he posted a 64.5 quarterback rating, threw five touchdowns against 11 interceptions and lost six fumbles. We're expecting Ponder to take a step forward in his third season and hold off Cassel with ease.

 

Source: ESPN.com

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

I honestly don't think it matters who they start... Neither pose as legitimate threats to lead a team without major help.

[Minny 33]

I honestly don't think it matters who they start... Neither pose as legitimate threats to lead a team without major help.

 

Stafford wasn't a legitimate threat last year even with Megatron. He had a lower passer rating than Ponder, and also happens to be 1-23 against teams over .500 during his career. Yet the Lions give him a 50+ million extension? What a joke. I'd love to know how much of his yards and touchdowns last year were during garbage time of the 4th quarter. He's the ultimate case of people overrating a QB due to their arm strength. It doesn't matter when your accuracy is sporadic and you have terrible mechanics.

[Bay 2,003]

Dmac hates that garbage time argument. This should be interesting.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Stafford wasn't a legitimate threat last year even with Megatron. He had a lower passer rating than Ponder, and also happens to be 1-23 against teams over .500 during his career. Yet the Lions give him a 50+ million extension? What a joke. I'd love to know how much of his yards and touchdowns last year were during garbage time of the 4th quarter. He's the ultimate case of people overrating a QB due to their arm strength. It doesn't matter when your accuracy is sporadic and you have terrible mechanics.

 

Yea, too bad the season prior to this past one, he had arguably the greatest season for any QB 23 and under, ever. I'm sure if you as a GM who had a young QB put up a season like that, and then come out and have one bad season where a lot of his weapons went down and were the victims of a lot of bad luck, you'd just let him walk.

 

Good luck finding a 24 year old QB who's going to look great with even Jerry Rice or Randy Moss being their #1 target when they have to wing the ball 727 times a game because they have an inept running game, #2-4 receivers go down halfway through the season, and a defense giving up 27 PPG on top of having the hardest schedule in the league.

 

Also rofl at "garbage stats". 71% of Stafford's total attempts were in games with the final margin being 0-7 points. The Lions were 3-8 in games decided by 7 points or less, that's 11 games out of 16. Only 4 of the 12 games we lost were with margins bigger then 7 points. Matthew Stafford was rarely ever put in situations where he produced in "garbage time", and the one game where he could of produced in garbage time (against the Jags) was the same game where he threw the ball the second least amount of times all season.

 

He's not the ultimate case of people overrating a QB just because of his arm as he has shown legit potential to be a great QB.

[Minny 33]

Also rofl at "garbage stats". 71% of Stafford's total attempts were in games with the final margin being 0-7 points. The Lions were 3-8 in games decided by 7 points or less, that's 11 games out of 16. Only 4 of the 12 games we lost were with margins bigger then 7 points. Matthew Stafford was rarely ever put in situations where he produced in "garbage time", and the one game where he could of produced in garbage time (against the Jags) was the same game where he threw the ball the second least amount of times all season.

 

Stafford's numbers by quarter:

 

1st quarter: 159 pass attempts, 949 yards, 2 TDs

 

2nd quarter: 172 attempts, 1243 yards, 5 TDs

 

3rd quarter: 130 attempts, 950 yards, 4 TDs

 

4th quarter: 254 attempts, 1719 yards, 9 TDs

-------------------------------------------------

 

As you can see, Stafford's numbers really inflate in the 4th quarter. Obviously this is due to the fact that the Lions were often behind in the 4th quarter of games and were abandoning the run. Also, just because a game ends with a margin between 0-7 points, it doesn't necessarily mean the game was as close as the score indicates. 6 of Stafford's 9 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter occurred when the team was down by 9+ points (two scores). Clearly Stafford benefited from opposing teams softening up their coverage when the Lions were down by two or more scores in the 4th quarter.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

When you're down a lot, you're gonna throw the ball a lot. Does that make it garbage time? You're overrating this whole garbage time so much. What about the eight games that finished with a margin of 4 points or less? The three OT games?

 

The Lions were competitive in way more games then they weren't competitive in. The "garbage time" argument has no legs in regards to Stafford and his stats last year. It would if we were getting blown out week in and week out and Stafford was just facing prevent defenses, but neither is the case.