NFL's Craziest Playoff Scenarios

[RANGA+ 1,210]

 

Source: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000301298/article/the-nfls-craziest-playoff-scenarios

 

We've broken down both the NFC and AFC playoff pictures.

 

The playoff picture

The NFL has provided all of the clinching scenarios this week, and we have the NFL standings memorized.

Now let's shake up the whole picture again.

This is my favorite time of year. There are so many permutations of how the next two weeks could go, but it never materializes how we expect it to. Thus far, only four teams have punched their ticket into the playoffs. Here are some of the craziest scenarios that could still happen over the next two weeks:

 

AFC North's No. 2 or nothing scenario

If Baltimore and Cincinnati both win Sunday, the AFC North title will be on the line during their Week 17 showdown. There's a real chance that the winner of Ravens-Bengals in Week 17 could be the No. 2 seed in the AFC, and the loser of the game would fall right out of the playoffs.

There are a lot of X-factors in this scenario, but it would create perhaps the most important Week 17 game of all time. Not only would it be a play-in game, the winner would essentially win two games, skipping right past Wild Card Weekend. Imagine Bengals fans knowing they could host a divisional round game or be headed home for the offseason.

 

Arizona wins out and it doesn't matter

The Cardinals could win in Seattle, and then defeat San Francisco in Week 17to get to 11-5. The Cardinals would be one of the hottest teams in the league, and it probably wouldn't matter. Here's how: The 49ers will clinch a playoff spot with a win over Atlanta Monday night, a likely result. The Cardinals would also lose any tiebreaker with New Orleans if the Saints finish at 11-5 and second place in the NFC South.

In short: The Cardinals need to root for the Saints to win in Carolina on Sunday. Because the Cardinals hold the tiebreaker over the Panthers, Arizona has to hope Carolina doesn't win the NFC South. Speaking of which ...

 

Arizona loses in Seattle, makes the playoffs anyhow

This is probably the Cardinals' most realistic route to the playoffs. Arizona could lose in Seattle, but the Cardinals would still make the playoffs if they beat San Francisco in Week 17 and Carolina lost their final two games.

The Panthers face the Saints this week and then head to Atlanta for the season finale. It would be a surprise if Carolina lost both of those games, but crazier things have happened.

Such as ...

 

Pittsburgh to the playoffs

At 6-8, the Steelers haven't been eliminated yet. They need to win their final two games to have a chance, and then it gets really tricky. Baltimore and Miami would both have to lose their final two games, and San Diego would have to lose at least once. Pittsburgh also needs the New York Jetsto win the last two weeks for a chance.

(It's complicated to explain why, but essentially the Steelers need the Jets to knock out Miami with their division record if everyone was 8-8.)

So, yes: The Browns-Jets game has playoff implications Sunday. Browns fans like Marc Sessler could watch their team eliminate the Steelers from contention. It's not a playoff win, but it's not bad. It would be fun if the Steelers just got to Week 17 with this scenario alive.

 

Peyton Manning returns to Indianapolis in wild-card round

The Denver Broncos are in good shape to win the AFC West, but it's not a sure bet yet. If the Broncos were upset in Houston this week, Kansas City could push Denver all the way down to the AFC's No. 5 seed if the Chiefs won out.

As the No. 5 seed, the Broncos would head on the road in the wild-card round. Their most likely opponent there: the Colts. It would be too cruel for Manning to have another one-and-done playoff experience in Indianapolis.

 

The Patriots don't make the playoffs

There's been an assumption all season that New England would be a big part of the playoffs. They still are in good position to get a playoff bye, but nothing is guaranteed yet. New England could fall right out of the playoffs, with the Miami Dolphins winning the AFC East. The Patriots would need to lose at home against Buffalo in Week 17 for this to happen, which sounds rather unlikely. (Then again, they barely beat Houston and Cleveland.) Another Miami loss also would clinch the AFC East for the Patriots.

 

Carolina could be the No. 1 seed or fall out of the playoffs

The Panthers have to worry about the scenario mentioned above where Arizona finishes with 11 wins to knock out the Panthers. Then again, the winner of New Orleans-Carolina still has a chance to get home-field advantage for the playoffs.

For that to happen, Seattle would need to lose their final two games. San Francisco would need to win their final two games, which would give the 49ers the NFC West. Carolina and New Orleans both beat San Francisco, so both teams would win any tiebreaker at 12-4.

 

[RANGA+ 1,210]

Actually can't remember the last time I've seen the playoff picture this wide open so close to the end of the season. Things about to wild!

[Thanatos 2,847]

Panthers Pats and Bengals are in, Saints are in if the Cards lose today as are the Niners with a win on MNF.

 

We could have all 12 teams set before week 17 with just seeding left to decide.

[Cherry 1,302]

 

We could have all 12 teams set before week 17 with just seeding left to decide.

No. Eagles vs. Cowboys no matter what happens.

[Thanatos 2,847]

Right. Like I said, all 12 teams set.

 

Dallas isn't winning a "win and you're in, lose and go home" game.

[RazorStar 4,025]

Ice Burn.

[JetsFan4Life 542]

Alright AFC games are done so here are the AFC scenarios.

 

1) Denver Broncos: 12-3

 

Highest Possible Finish: #1

Lowest Possible Finish: #2

 

Week 17 Opponent: @ Oakland Raiders

 

Clinch #1 seed with: Win/tie OR Patriots loss/tie.

Clinch #2 seed with: Loss AND Patriots win.

 

 

2) New England Patriots: 11-4

 

Highest Possible Finish: #1

Lowest Possible Finish: #4

 

Week 17 Opponent: vs. Buffalo Bills

 

Clinch #1 seed with: Win AND Broncos loss.

Clinch #2 seed with: Win/Tie OR loss AND Bengals loss/tie AND Colts loss/tie

Clinch #3 seed with: Loss AND Colts win AND Bengals loss OR Loss AND Bengals win AND Colts loss

Clinch #4 seed with: Loss AND Colts win AND Bengals win

 

3) Cincinnati Bengals: 10-5

 

Highest Possible Finish: #2

Lowest Possible Finish: #4

 

Week 17 Opponent: vs. Baltimore Ravens

 

Clinch #2 seed with: Win AND Patriots loss

Clinch #3 seed with: Win AND Patriots win/tie OR win/tie AND Colts loss/tie OR loss and Colts loss

Clinch #4 seed with Tie AND Colts win OR loss AND Colts win/tie

 

4) Indianapolis Colts: 10-5

 

Highest Possible Finish: #2

Lowest Possible Finish: #4

 

Week 17 Opponent: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Clinch #2 seed with: Win AND Patriots loss AND Bengals loss/tie

Clinch #3 seed with: Win AND Patriots win/tie AND Colts loss/tie or Tie AND Colts loss

Clinch #4 seed with: Win/tie AND Colts win OR Tie AND Colts win/tie OR Loss

 

5) Kansas City Chiefs: 11-4

 

Highest Possible Finish: #5

Lowest Possible Finish: #5

 

Week 17 Opponent: @ San Diego Chargers

 

Clinched # 5 seed

 

I'll do the wildcard situation later or someone else can ha.

 

[BwareDWare94 723]

WHY does Arizona not get the WC spot over Carolina if Carolina loses next week and New Orleans wins? 11-5 and 11-5. The head-to-head matchup (which wasn't very close) needs to matter. What the Christ?

Actually, fuck it. Why isn't there a win total that trounces division titles. Quite frankly, The NFC East and NFC North should go without playoff teams, this year.

 

Division title playoff spot. Dumbest fucking rule in the book.

[RazorStar 4,025]

WHY does Arizona not get the WC spot over Carolina if Carolina loses next week and New Orleans wins? 11-5 and 11-5. The head-to-head matchup (which wasn't very close) needs to matter. What the Christ?

 

Actually, fuck it. Why isn't there a win total that trounces division titles. Quite frankly, The NFC East and NFC North should go without playoff teams, this year.

 

Division title playoff spot. Dumbest fucking rule in the book.

 

It becomes relevant when San Francisco is 11-5 as well (they will be if they beat the Falcons Monday Night), because the Cardinals have a bad record in the division (It'd be 3-3 when the 49ers are 4-2). The 49ers trump the Cardinals for any tiebreaker at that point. If San Fran went 10-6, then Arizona would make the playoffs regardless of what the Panthers or Saints do.

[RazorStar 4,025]

Tiebreakers for the AFC Wildcard

 

Miami is in with:

1. Win + Baltimore Loss

2. Win + San Diego Win

 

Baltimore is in with:

1. Win + Miami Loss

2. Win + San Diego Loss

3. Lose + San Diego, Miami and Pittsburgh loss

 

San Diego is in with:

1. Win + Baltimore and Miami Loss

 

Pittsburgh is in with:

1. Win + Baltimore, Miami and San Diego Loss

 

I believe that covers all the scenarios. Basically Baltimore is the only team that could lose and still win the Wild Card.

[BwareDWare94 723]

 

WHY does Arizona not get the WC spot over Carolina if Carolina loses next week and New Orleans wins? 11-5 and 11-5. The head-to-head matchup (which wasn't very close) needs to matter. What the Christ?

 

Actually, fuck it. Why isn't there a win total that trounces division titles. Quite frankly, The NFC East and NFC North should go without playoff teams, this year.

 

Division title playoff spot. Dumbest fucking rule in the book.

 

It becomes relevant when San Francisco is 11-5 as well (they will be if they beat the Falcons Monday Night), because the Cardinals have a bad record in the division (It'd be 3-3 when the 49ers are 4-2). The 49ers trump the Cardinals for any tiebreaker at that point. If San Fran went 10-6, then Arizona would make the playoffs regardless of what the Panthers or Saints do.

 

 

I understand how Arizona doesn't beat out SF when both are at 11-5, but let's say Carolina gets the WC spot and NOLA gets the NFC South. Why, then, with both Carolina and Arizona at 11-5, does Arizona not get the WC spot when they won the head to head matchup.

 

Makes. No. Sense. The teams had the same record, but when they played it was a double digit game. The spot SHOULD go to the team that won that game.

[RazorStar 4,025]

Because San Fran isn't given a division title and take the wildcard spot. Arizona moves immediately to the bottom of the tiebreaker list because they're the worst team in the division.

 

San Fran, Arizona and Carolina are all tied at 11-5. There are two spots to be decided, and Arizona automatically goes to third because they tiebreak from division first to get rid of teams. Therefore San Fran and Carolina are guaranteed those two wild card spots, and the difference in seeding comes down to their tiebreaker.

[JetsFan4Life 542]

Tiebreakers for the AFC Wildcard

 

Miami is in with:

1. Win + Baltimore Loss

2. Win + San Diego Win

 

Baltimore is in with:

1. Win + Miami Loss

2. Win + San Diego Loss

3. Lose + San Diego, Miami and Pittsburgh loss

 

San Diego is in with:

1. Win + Baltimore and Miami Loss

 

Pittsburgh is in with:

1. Win + Baltimore, Miami and San Diego Loss

 

I believe that covers all the scenarios. Basically Baltimore is the only team that could lose and still win the Wild Card.

 

Not accounting for ties.

Edited December 23, 2013 by JetsFan4Life

[RazorStar 4,025]

Ties are a figment of your imagination, caused by buffalo sauce hallucinations.

[Thanatos 2,847]

Bware, you're going in circles. Arizona beat Carolina who beat San Fran who split with Arizona- so why is San Fran not the one sitting out in the cold? In your scenario all three teams are 11-5.

 

However, even though this is not the case for this year, If I'm reading this right, I do have a problem with the current system. Let's assume Arizona, San Fran, and Carolina all end with 11-5 records and somehow Zona has a worse division record than San Fran, (this is not possible, just for hypothesis sake), but Zona swept San Fran and also beat Carolina.

 

So just for clarity's sake, here are their records against each other in this hypothetical scenario:

 

ARZ vs SF: 2-0 in favor of ARZ

ARZ vs CAR: 1-0 in favor of ARZ

CAR vs SF: 1-0 in favor of CAR

 

And division records:

 

ARZ: 3-3

SF: 4-2

CAR: 4-2 (doesn't matter, not in the NFC West)

 

If I'm reading this correctly, Zona would be the one eliminated. That seems a bit odd. Seems to me that if a team beat both of the teams they're against, even if one of them is within their division, they should get the nod over the other two, (again, SF is the one eliminated in this scenario).

Edited December 23, 2013 by Thanatos19

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

This is my favorite part of the year.

[BwareDWare94 723]

Bware, you're going in circles. Arizona beat Carolina who beat San Fran who split with Arizona- so why is San Fran not the one sitting out in the cold? In your scenario all three teams are 11-5.

 

However, even though this is not the case for this year, If I'm reading this right, I do have a problem with the current system. Let's assume Arizona, San Fran, and Carolina all end with 11-5 records and somehow Zona has a worse division record than San Fran, (this is not possible, just for hypothesis sake), but Zona swept San Fran and also beat Carolina.

 

So just for clarity's sake, here are their records against each other in this hypothetical scenario:

 

ARZ vs SF: 2-0 in favor of ARZ

ARZ vs CAR: 1-0 in favor of ARZ

CAR vs SF: 1-0 in favor of CAR

 

And division records:

 

ARZ: 3-3

SF: 4-2

CAR: 4-2 (doesn't matter, not in the NFC West)

 

If I'm reading this correctly, Zona would be the one eliminated. That seems a bit odd. Seems to me that if a team beat both of the teams they're against, even if one of them is within their division, they should get the nod over the other two, (again, SF is the one eliminated in this scenario).

 

I think Arizona splits with SF if they win next week. Pretty sure the 9ers won the first one. 'Zona has a worse division record because they lost to STL on opening day. SF swept STL.

 

It's kind of a lose lose situation. All 3 of these teams deserve to be there.

[Thanatos 2,847]

I was giving a hypothetical scenario, Bware. I know the Niners won the first matchup in reality.

[BwareDWare94 723]

Yeah, I saw that after I posted. My bad.

 

Fuck divisional structures. Just do away with them and have conferences.

[Thanatos 2,847]

Do we really want to get rid of classic rivalries just because on occasion some team gets left out that shouldn't be? If Arizona goes 11-5 and misses the playoffs, they will be only the second team to do so, (the '08 Pats being the other one). Is that really worth removing divisions for?

[BigBen07 285]

That is batshit insane how the Steelers can still get in. I guess I'll have to wait and see what happens.

[blotsfan 2,112]

Yeah, I saw that after I posted. My bad.

 

Fuck divisional structures. Just do away with them and have conferences.

 

The NFL doesn't play enough games to be able to do that. Divisions are necessary and generally work. If Arizona wanted to be in the playoffs, they shouldn't have lost to St. Louis.

[JetsFan4Life 542]

Bware, you're going in circles. Arizona beat Carolina who beat San Fran who split with Arizona- so why is San Fran not the one sitting out in the cold? In your scenario all three teams are 11-5.

 

However, even though this is not the case for this year, If I'm reading this right, I do have a problem with the current system. Let's assume Arizona, San Fran, and Carolina all end with 11-5 records and somehow Zona has a worse division record than San Fran, (this is not possible, just for hypothesis sake), but Zona swept San Fran and also beat Carolina.

 

So just for clarity's sake, here are their records against each other in this hypothetical scenario:

 

ARZ vs SF: 2-0 in favor of ARZ

ARZ vs CAR: 1-0 in favor of ARZ

CAR vs SF: 1-0 in favor of CAR

 

And division records:

 

ARZ: 3-3

SF: 4-2

CAR: 4-2 (doesn't matter, not in the NFC West)

 

If I'm reading this correctly, Zona would be the one eliminated. That seems a bit odd. Seems to me that if a team beat both of the teams they're against, even if one of them is within their division, they should get the nod over the other two, (again, SF is the one eliminated in this scenario).

 

In the scenario you listed Arizona would be in over San Francisco due to having the head-to-head advantage. You can only have one team from the division but the divisional tiebreakers take place separately. The first divisional tiebreaker is head-to-head followed by divisional record...

[Thanatos 2,847]

Ah okay, good. That makes more sense. I thought the first was division record and they'd skip the head-to-head since three teams were involved.

[BwareDWare94 723]

 

Yeah, I saw that after I posted. My bad.

 

Fuck divisional structures. Just do away with them and have conferences.

 

The NFL doesn't play enough games to be able to do that. Divisions are necessary and generally work. If Arizona wanted to be in the playoffs, they shouldn't have lost to St. Louis.

 

St. Louis looked pretty good for awhile at the beginning of the season. It wasn't that bad of a loss.