Survivor Advice 2.0

[NYGIANTSFLYHIGH 1]

Well for the second consecutive week, the NFL took a toll on my health! That Vikings game gave me a heart attack! But in the end, it all worked out and we're moving on to Week 15!

 

Thank you to everyone who gave me their 2 cents in last weeks thread, I cant express enough gratitude. Truly, thank you. I would love to get everyone's take again this week!

 

This is the last week of picking 2 games, in week 16 & 17 we have to pick THREE winners, that's where things are sure to get interesting. After tonights game, assuming the packers win there will be just under 20 people left, unfortunately 3 of the members who have already moved on have no interest in splitting the pot yet, so we are forced to play out at least one more week, so here goes.

 

Here's what we have remaining

 

 

TEAM AVAILABLE Week 15(x2) Week 16(x3) Week 17(x3)

Browns Bengals AT PANTHERS AT RAVENS

Buccaneers AT PANTHERS Packers Saints

Cardinals AT RAMS AT SEAHAWKS 49ers

Chiefs Raiders AT STEELERS Chargers

Cowboys AT EAGLES Colts AT REDSKINS

Eagles Cowboys AT REDSKINS Giants

Falcons Steelers AT SAINTS Panthers

Giants Redskins AT RAMS Eagles

Jaguars AT RAVENS Titans AT TEXANS

Packers AT BILLS AT BUCCANEERS Lions

Panthers Buccaneers Browns AT FALCONS

Raiders AT CHIEFS Bills Broncos

Redskins AT GIANTS Eagles Cowboys

Texans AT COLTS Ravens Jaguars

 

 

Fire away TGP!

Edited December 8, 2014 by NYGIANTSFLYHIGH

[oochymp 2,393]

looks like you've given up on trying to pick the Titans? good call, in fact I'd strongly consider picking Jacksonville in week 16

 

your safest bets for this week are probably CHIEFS v. Raiders (the Chiefs will be out for redemption after the upset a couple weeks ago and this one's at Arrowhead) and PACKERS at Bills (the Packers are just clearly the better team)

 

other teams I'd consider: GIANTS v. Redskins (the Redskins have just looked awful of late); FALCONS v. Steelers (the Steelers are bad about playing to the level of their opponent and this game screams trap coming off a big win against Cincy and with games against KC and Cincy remaining, but the Steelers are in the thick of the playoff hunt so it's definitely a high risk pick)

 

looking ahead, I'd go with Chiefs and Giants this week, that'd leave you with Browns, Packers, and Jags week 16 then Texans, Eagles, and Falcons week 17

[NYGIANTSFLYHIGH 1]

Thanks oochy. That's my line of thinking as well for this week Giants and Chiefs, both at home. But the Raiders putting the beats on SF and the Giants being, well the Giants, these are not picks I make with supreme confidence lol. Not to mention it was like pulling teeth to convince the 3 Jet fans Im partnered with to take the Vikings yesterday, I fear getting them to pick the Giants will be an even greater task. But given our options, and needing the Packers badly for week 16 here is how I have it breaking down for now. Of course injuries, starters being sat for playoff implications, etc make these all subject to change outside of this week

 

 

Week 15

Chiefs Home for Raiders

Giants Home for Skins

 

Week 16

Packers at Bucs

Eagles at Skins

3rd is up for major discussion....I could see both the Panthers/Browns and Titans/Jags game going either way. So really all 4 of those teams are options

 

Week 17

Cowboys at Skins (reluctantly, it is afterall the Cowboys in a big game)

Texans Home for Jags

again, 3rd is up for debate. Who knows who will play and who wont, but Im definitely leaning towards Falcons at home for Panthers in what is likely to be an important game for winning the division in the NFCS

 

Thank you again Oochymp, really everyones input is INCREDIBLY helpful

[oochymp 2,393]

I'd shy away from picking Dallas in December, they're great at the late season collapses. As tempting as it is to take them against the Redskins that rivalry is always unpredictable, those teams always come ready to play, especially since the game is at home and the Skins could eliminate Dallas from the playoffs. Though since Dallas has already dropped one to Washington this year they may come out with a little more fire and the Redskins may have packed it in by then

[NYGIANTSFLYHIGH 1]

Couldn't agree more. We will have to see how the next 2 weeks shake out before worrying about that anyway. Most important is getting passed this week. I feel pretty comfortable with the Chiefs pick, for an array of reasons

 

- Though Oakland is playing better I cant see them sweeping anyone

- KCs loss in Oakland 3 weeks ago sent them on a 3 game skid, if they have any hope of making the playoffs they probably need to win out

- Theyre double digit favorites at arrowhead. With that kind of HFA its hard to see them dropping this game

 

 

The Giants, on the other hand,

[seanbrock 1,684]

I would take the Giants and the Chiefs this week. Eagles and Packers(somewhat nervously) week 16. Then I'd take Texans over the Jags and the Falcons over Carolina.

 

These are some hard picks man. If the Cowboys have to beat Washington to get into the playoffs though I'd really consider them as a pick in week 17. For now though I think the Giants and Chiefs are pretty solid picks for week 15.

 

edit: Packers @ Bills might be better than NYG over Washington. Then you could go with Cleveland over Carolina which would be a strong pick imo.

 

Picking the Cards and the Chiefs, then Cleveland and Philly could save you the Packers for some tough week 17 match ups. Lions won't sweep Green Bay and that way you wouldn't have to try and predict a division match up between NFCS teams.

Edited December 8, 2014 by seanbrock

[NYGIANTSFLYHIGH 1]

Thanks Sbrock, all good points. But don't forget I need to pick THREE winners in 16 and 17, not just 2.

[BradyFan81 404]

I agree with your plan for this week. Eagles would probably be a safer pick, but you need to preserve them for next week. So hopefully the Gmen can take care of business.

 

For the 3rd pick next week, I'd think about maybe taking the Cowboys over the Colts. The Colts can't stop the run, and the Cowboys have one of the best running games in the NFL. Probably a little scary to bet against the Colts but it's something to consider.

[NYGIANTSFLYHIGH 1]

Excellent point Revis, thank you. Didn't even think to look at Dallas in 16. Theyre at home too

[oochymp 2,393]

also, Colts clinch the division with a win against Houston this week, which gets back to my point in your last thread about Indy resting players

[NYGIANTSFLYHIGH 1]

Now that would be something. Again that's a discussion IF I can get by this week. But would Indy really sit there starters for 2 full weeks?

[oochymp 2,393]

hard to say, they'll still have an outside shot at a bye if New England or Denver stumble (they need to pickup two games on either because they've lost to both) and I don't think you'd see anything too extreme, but I wouldn't be shocked if key players sit at halftime

[Vin+ 3,121]

I'd go Giants/Panthers this week, Cowboys/Eagles/Jags in 16 (Packers generally suck against the Bucs), Texans/Packers/Cards in 17, assuming it goes that far.

[NYGIANTSFLYHIGH 1]

How come you don't like the Chiefs game Vin? Like I said, I need all points of view!

[Tridentdawgpound 1,043]

You're giving everyone in here a +1 rep and that's why I'm here.

[Vin+ 3,121]

I'm gun-shy at this point. The Chiefs lose to teams they're better than seemingly all the time. The should've beaten the Raiders a couple weeks ago, and the should've beaten the Cards last week. Now, should they beat the Raiders this week? Yes, but that doesn't mean they will.

[NYGIANTSFLYHIGH 1]

At least contribute something Trident lol

[Cherry 1,302]

Ravens should probably be a big one for 15 if they're available.

[Thanatos 2,847]

I would be very very very concerned over picking Cleveland over Carolina. Hoyer is awful. If they start Manziel, you have no idea how that would play out and the Panthers just shat on the Saints, (which probably took out some people from your pool if I had to wager a guess).

 

Browns > Panthers is really leaning the other way IMO.

 

Id also stay away from Panthers > Bucs. Division game, no idea. I like your idea of staying the hell away from division games.

Edited December 9, 2014 by Thanatos19

[Vin+ 3,121]

Panthers/Bucs may have been ruined thanks to Cam's accident.

[NYGIANTSFLYHIGH 1]

First and foremost, I really hope Cam's injuries are as non serious as the reports say they are...After seeing the wreck, I would thank my lucky stars the injuries were ONLY a few fractured transverse processes. Very lucky, and very smart he was wearing his seatbelt.

 

This could prove to be a major turning point in this whole competition. Assuming Cam misses this week due to injury, which he may not but just saying if. If he misses the week, and they lose to Tampa, I would assume they have no shot at the playoffs anymore, right?

 

If theyre eliminated from contention, and Cam wont be 100%, would they think about shutting him down for the final 2 games?

 

If THAT is the case, than it makes picking my 3rd teams in Week 16 and 17 a heck of a lot easier.

 

Week 16- Browns @ Panthers

Week 17- Falcons vs Panthers

 

Crazy how things could unfold because of this.....

Edited December 10, 2014 by NYGIANTSFLYHIGH

[oochymp 2,393]

they wouldn't necessarily be out with a loss, they're only half a game out of the division lead and if the Falcons lose to the Steelers and the Saints lose to the Bears (both possible outcomes) then they'll still be half a game back with two left, it's also no guarantee that they'll lose to Tampa this week, they've already beaten the Bucs once with Derek Anderson at QB and this one will be at home

[Thanatos 2,847]

Cam is definitely going to miss this week, but that doesn't mean Carolina will lose. We beat them in TB with DA.

 

DA is a far better backup than most people realize.

[RazorStar 4,025]

So would you say he's a fine backup?

[Vin+ 3,121]

Well, he does take this shit serious after all.

Edited December 11, 2014 by Vin