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RazorStar

Razor's QB Rankings 2017

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Hello everyone, I'm back at it again, giving QB's grades they may or may not deserve. The explanation of how I do all this is copy pasted from previous years. The methodology hasn't changed, but the skills of the QB's in question are always changing. To qualify for the list, you must have at least 100 passing attempts, or 14 passing attempts per game on average, whichever is lower.

QB's are measured on 4 parameters.

1. Modified Completion Percentage. This is Completion Percentage with the addition of sacks as incomplete passes, and runs as completed passes. Factoring sacks and rushing attempts into the equation tanks most efficiency stats, but it generally brings up completion percentage.

2. Modified TD/ATT Percentage. Same as before, Rushing and Passing TD's compared to passes thrown, sacks and rushing attempts. Rewards guys who don't get TD credit for their one yard sneaks, also Cam Newton, probably.

3. Modified Turnover/Attempt Percentage. Including fumbles. All of them, even the ones that the offense recovers. Why? My logic on this is that recovering a fumble is basically a coin flip. If you lose the ball you're only getting lucky so often. Fumbles are equivalent to half a turnover, because fumbles are recovered by the fumbling team about 50% of the time.

4. Modified Yards per Attempt. Rushing Yards + Passing Yards - Sack Yards divided by rushing attempts, passing attempts and sacks. This stat tanks for nearly everyone, sack yards are a big hit to YPA. I understand not all offensive lines are built the same, but when you compare Chad Henne to Drew Stanton, there's enough of a discrepancy between good and bad QB's with roughly equivalent lines. 6.0 YPA is terrible using raw passer numbers, but with this modification it becomes roughly the average. So keep that in mind.

All players are ranked on those parameters, and then given a sum total of their ranking for each parameter. The lower your score, the more efficient you are. Ties are sorted by the player's YPA, since that has the best correlation to victory among all QB stats.

The Googledoc is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Hl1c3zVSL9ifUBRanhvjZ1D_1SKY-0aLjOLtzVpIsHA/edit?usp=sharing

I've also introduced something new in the weekly tracker sheet. In addition to having where each QB ranked in the first two weeks thus far, I've also attempted to add an Accrued Value over Time stat, which basically gives a nice number value for a QB based on how well they've done throughout the entire season. The weekly tracker does a good job at giving week to week snapshots, but how well do a measure a volatile QB who goes from 10th to 20th alternating each week compared to the rest of his peers who have more stable outputs throughout the season? I'm gonna reintroduce this value to my 2016 list as well to see the results.

In any case, the list is nowhere near stable yet, small sample sizes will do that. Nonetheless, here are the current rankings up to Week 2.

Week 2 QB Rankings

1. Sam Bradford 11
2. Alex Smith 14
3. Derek Carr 15
4. Matt Ryan 33
5. Philip Rivers 33
6. Matt Stafford 37
7. Tom Brady 39
8. Drew Brees 41
9. Jared Goff 45
10. Ben Roeth 45
11. Jay Cutler 48
12. Trevor Siemian 58
13. Tyrod Taylor 61
14. Marcus Mariota 64
15. Carson Wentz 67
16. Aaron Rodgers 68
17. Jameis Winston 70
18. Joe Flacco 70
19. Josh McCown 74
20. Dak Prescott 76
21. Eli Manning 79
22. Cam Newton 81
23. Kirk Cousins 87
24. Blake Bortles 88
25. Mike Glennon 91
26. DeShaun Watson 95
27. Russell Wilson 96
28. Case Keenum 100
29. Carson Palmer 102
30. Jacoby Brissett 105
31. DeShone Kizer 108
32. Brian Hoyer 116
33. Andy Dalton 127
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If you could find a way to weigh attempts at a certain point I think these QB rankings would probably be the best possible without factoring in grades from teammates.

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Anyway, here's a better explanation of accrued value over time, and how I attempt to measure it. So each and every week, QB's are measured by their cumulative stats, and each parameter is compressed in an easy to understand rank and score. So using my 2016 spreadsheet as an example. In Week 1, Matt Stafford had the best QB ranking out of all qualifying QBs, so he was ranked 1 out of 32 qualifying QBs. What I did is assign each rank a value score, based on how many QB's qualified for passing rating at that week. So Stafford would have 32 points, second place would have 31, all the way down to last place (Case Keenum that week) who would get a measly 1 point. QB's who didn't qualify for passing rating in week 1, but eventually made their ways onto the list would also receive a point value of 1.

 

Now this point value is also weighted against the week of the season. Week 1 would be modified by 1/17, Week 2 by 2/17, etc etc until week 17 where they would be unmodified. This gives a larger weight to how well a player performs at the end of a season, but doesn't discount everything they've done before hand. So, putting all of this into practice, I have the 2016 AVoT final values here, based on every QB who qualified for the list at one point or another.

 

 

2016 AVoT FINAL RESULTS

1. Matt Ryan 307.71
2. Dak Prescott 296.94
3. Drew Brees 288.59
4. Tom Brady 279.18
5. Derek Carr 267.71
6. Matt Stafford 263.24
7. Kirk Cousins 255
8. Brian Hoyer 247.82
9. Marcus Mariota 229.88
10. Aaron Rodgers 229.29
11. Andrew Luck 214.76
12. Andy Dalton 209.71
13. Ben Roethlisberger 209.24
14. Sam Bradford 204.12
15. Philip Rivers 188.76
16. Russell Wilson 188.06
17. Tyrod Taylor 187.12
18. Alex Smith 184.18
19. Ryan Tannehill 177.82
20. Trevor Siemian 136.18
21. Eli Manning 132.53
22. Jameis Winston 120.24
23. Cam Newton 117
24. Colin Kaepernick 104.35
25. Cody Kessler 103.18
26. Joe Flacco 93.12
27. Carson Wentz 92.47
28. Blaine Gabbert 86.12
29. Blake Bortles 81.59
30. Carson Palmer 80
31. Case Keenum 54.71
32. Brock Osweiler 31.24
33. Jay Cutler 29.76
34. Ryan Fitzpatrick 29.35
35. Jimmy Garoppolo 26.12
36. Matt Barkley 25.69
37. Robert Griffin 18.82
38. Josh McCown 15.76
39. Jared Goff 12.65
40. Shaun Hill 10.88
41. Bryce Petty 9 (The absolute lowest possible score by this grading system)
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You forgot someone, Razor.

 

1. Colin Kaepernick.

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If I could give you 1 million +1s I would! Nice work! Also, you AVoT stats pass my eye test to me. It looks about right aside from Hoyer, Dalton...

Edited by BJORN

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That's ok, because Hoyer and Dalton are scraping the bottom of the barrel this season! Time fixes all wounds.

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Report to the Goff troop! Man if you beat up on the rest of the league like you beat up on the 49ers you might make the Rams look like geniuses. Early weeks are still pretty frenetic for rankings, so don't take these to be a microcosm of the season or anything.

 

Week 3 QB Rankings

 

1. Alex Smith 7 (+1)
2. Jared Goff 22 (+7)
3. Drew Brees 23 (+5)
4. Case Keenum 32 (+24) (wtf tampa)
5. Tom Brady 35 (+2)
6. Kirk Cousins 41 (+17)
7. Tyrod Taylor 42 (+6)
8. Matt Ryan 47 (-4)
9. Derek Carr 47 (-6)
10. Matt Stafford 48 (-4)
11. Blake Bortles 51 (+13)
12. Marcus Mariota 51 (+2)
13. Dak Prescott 55 (+7)
14. Josh McCown 60 (+5)
15. Ben Roeth 62 (-5)
16. Aaron Rodgers 64
17. Eli Manning 65 (+4)
18. Jameis Winston 66 (-1)
19. Jacoby Brissett 66 (+11)
20. Trevor Siemian 73 (-8)
21. Carson Wentz 75 (-6)
22. Philip Rivers 76 (-17)
23. Russell Wilson 83 (+4)
24. Jay Cutler 86 (-13)
25. DeShaun Watson 89 (+1)
26. Mike Glennon 97 (-1)
27. Carson Palmer 102 (+2)
28. Joe Flacco 104 (-10)
29. Brian Hoyer 105 (+3)
30. Cam Newton 110 (-8)
31. DeShone Kizer 112
32. Andy Dalton 116 (+1)
Edited by RazorStar
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Case Keenum is number 4 too, maybe Jeff Fisher is truly just that bad, and a real coach would have had the next Young/Montana duo. :p

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When will you ever start publishing these rankings? Razor>PFF. Just find a way to make the numbers look like Wentz is better though man come on. He throws a lot and so far against some very good pass defenses.

 

6/8 throwing at Marcus Peter's.

Edited by seanbrock

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Rankings are still super volatile, especially in the middle of the pack, so you have been warned.


Week 4 QB Rankings


1. Alex Smith 8

2. Jared Goff 22

3. Tom Brady 26 (+2)

4. Drew Brees 27 (-1)

5. Kirk Cousins 31 (+1)


6. Derek Carr 42 (+3)

7. Marcus Mariota 46 (+5)

8. Tyrod Taylor 46 (-1)

9. DeShaun Watson 48 (+16)

10. Aaron Rodgers 50 (+6)

11. Dak Prescott 53 (+2)

12. Russell Wilson 55 (+11)

13. Eli Manning 60 (+4)

14. Jameis Winston 62 (+4)

15. Cam Newton 62 (+15)

16. Case Keenum 64 (-12)

17. Matt Ryan 68 (-9)

18. Philip Rivers 70 (+4)

19. Ben Roeth 72 (-5)

20. Matt Stafford 72 (-10)

21. Carson Wentz 75

22. Trevor Siemian 79 (-2)

23. Andy Dalton 81 (+9)

24. Blake Bortles 81 (-13)

25. Josh McCown 84 (-11)

26. Jacoby Brissett 88 (-7)

27. Jay Cutler 89 (-3)


28. Mike Glennon 99 (-2)

29. Carson Palmer 102 (-2)

30. Brian Hoyer 113 (-1)

31. Joe Flacco 116 (-3)

32. DeShone Kizer 121 (-1)

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Alex Smith for president.

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Another week in the books, and the tops and bottoms are starting to take familiar shapes. Age can't stop Brady's ascent to the top of the pile, but it can sink long time veterans like Jay Cutler and Ben Roethlisberger. Mitch Trubisky and Kevin Hogan made their official and unofficial debuts last week, but they're a few attempts away from the minimum qualifying amount. It'll be interesting to see how they shape up compared to the poor play of their predecessors.


Week 5 QB Rankings


1. Alex Smith 8

2. Tom Brady 21 (+1)

3. Drew Brees 25 (+1)

4. Kirk Cousins 31 (+1)

5. Derek Carr 39 (+1)

6. Marcus Mariota 40 (+1)

7. Dak Prescott 40 (+4)

8. Aaron Rodgers 43 (+2)

9. Cam Newton 46 (+6)

10. Case Keenum 47 (+6)

11. Carson Wentz 52 (+10)

12. DeShaun Watson 52 (-3)

13. Russell Wilson 59 (-1)

14. Jared Goff 61 (-12)

15. Matt Ryan 67 (+2)

16. Jameis Winston 69 (-2)

17. Eli Manning 70 (-4)

18. Tyrod Taylor 72 (-10)

19. Matt Stafford 72 (+1)

20. Trevor Siemian 73 (+2)

21. Philip Rivers 77 (-3)

22. Josh McCown 77 (+3)

23. Andy Dalton 78

24. Jacoby Brissett 80 (+2)

25. Blake Bortles 84 (-1)

26. Carson Palmer 89 (+3)

27. Mike Glennon 97 (+1)

28. Ben Roeth 100 (-9)

29. Jay Cutler 104 (-2)

30. Brian Hoyer 106

31. Joe Flacco 109

32. DeShone Kizer 124

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How did Carr and Mariota both get plus 1 despite missing games

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Goff took a freefall, so they both move up.

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We've got some young blood to welcome to the top ten. DeShaun Watson and Carson Wentz are putting on clinics for their respective teams, and making this season real interesting to watch. Some big name QB's with big paydays had big drops this week, and the highest riser this time around is legacy weapon Philip Rivers. What a shock!


Week 6 QB Rankings


1. Alex Smith 13

2. Kirk Cousins 21 (+2)

3. Drew Brees 27

4. Tom Brady 31 (-2)

5. Marcus Mariota 36 (+1)

6. Dak Prescott 36 (+1)

7. Carson Wentz 41 (+4)

8. Aaron Rodgers 41

9. DeShaun Watson 47 (+3)

10. Case Keenum 47

11. Derek Carr 56 (-6)

12. Jared Goff 58 (+2)

13. Russell Wilson 58

14. Cam Newton 62 (-5)

15. Philip Rivers 64 (+6)

16. Matt Ryan 66 (-1)

17. Tyrod Taylor 69 (+1)

18. Jameis Winston 71 (-2)

19. Eli Manning 71 (-2)

20. Jacoby Brissett 73 (+4)

21. Josh McCown 73 (+1)

22. Andy Dalton 75 (+1)

23. Carson Palmer 82 (+3)

24. Trevor Siemian 84 (-4)

25. Matt Stafford 86 (-6)

26. Ben Roeth 90 (+2)

27. Blake Bortles 92 (-2)

28. Mike Glennon 97 (-1)

29. Jay Cutler 102

30. Brian Hoyer 103

31. Joe Flacco 116

32. DeShone Kizer 124

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And something special, here are my current AVOT numbers so far this season. Keep in mind, the numbers will go way up as each week progresses.

 

Week 6 AVOT Rankings:
1. Alex Smith 39.353
2. Drew Brees 36.235
3. Tom Brady 35.176
4. Kirk Cousins 32.588
5. Derek Carr 31.765
6. Marcus Mariota 31.118
7. Jared Goff 30.176
8. Dak Prescott 28.824
9. Aaron Rodgers 27.647
10. Case Keenum 24.765
11. Matt Ryan 24.412
12. Tyrod Taylor 24.235
13. Carson Wentz 24.000
14. DeShaun Watson 22.824
15. Russell Wilson 20.824
16. Cam Newton 20.706
17. Philip Rivers 19.824
18. Jameis Winston 19.471
19. Eli Manning 19.412
20. Matt Stafford 18.941
21. Trevor Siemian 15.471
22. Josh McCown 15.000
23. Ben Roethlisberger 14.588
24. Blake Bortles 12.529
25. Jacoby Brissett 11.882
26. Andy Dalton 9.529
27. Carson Palmer 8.412
28. Jay Cutler 8.353
29. Mike Glennon 7.412
30. Sam Bradford 6.706
31. Joe Flacco 5.118
32. Brian Hoyer 3.882
33. DeShone Kizer 2.412
34. Scott Tolzien 1.294

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Another week down, and a bit more flux is added to the mix. With lots of injuries piling up and QB's getting benched left and right, we're going to have a lot more company on this list compared to what it was just a few weeks prior. For now though, the race for the top is being held tightly by Alex Smith, but Cousins, Brady and Brees are all breathing down his neck. Meanwhile, the bottom has been staying as consistent as ever. The real interesting battle is between these sophomore QB's at the top. At first it was looking like Jared Goff was going to take the surprise victory, but now Dakota and North Dakota are fighting it out too. That should be fun to watch as the season goes on.

 

Week 7 QB Rankings

 

1. Alex Smith 9
2. Kirk Cousins 23
3. Tom Brady 26 (+1)
4. Drew Brees 29 (-1)
5. Dak Prescott 31 (+1)
6. Aaron Rodgers 43 (+2)
7. Carson Wentz 44
8. Marcus Mariota 44 (-3)
9. Russell Wilson 45 (+4)
10. Derek Carr 47 (+1)
11. DeShaun Watson 48 (-2)
12. Case Keenum 52 (-2)
13. Matt Ryan 57 (+3)
14. Jameis Winston 59 (+4)
15. Jared Goff 62 (-3)
16. Josh McCown 63 (+5)
17. Philip Rivers 66 (-2)
18. Tyrod Taylor 66 (-1)
19. Cam Newton 72 (-5)
20. Blake Bortles 78 (+7)
21. Eli Manning 82 (-2)
22. Ben Roeth 83 (+4)
23. Andy Dalton 86 (-1)
24. Matt Stafford 86 (+1)
25. Carson Palmer 90 (-2)
26. Trevor Siemian 91 (-2)
27. Jacoby Brissett 92 (-7)
28. Jay Cutler 94 (+1)
29. Mike Glennon 98 (-1)
30. Brian Hoyer 106
31. Joe Flacco 116
32. DeShone Kizer 124

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Good on you, Alex Smith.

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No love for Wentz lol ,

 

How is it no love for Wentz? It's math.

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He's also 7th in the rankings and has been slowly climbing up. I agree though, these numbers need to be adjusted in a way that makes Wentz look like the best QB in the league. I'll need an actual smart person to help me with this though...

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If Wentz wants to get on the top of the list, he needs to reduce his fumbles. Even if he's been lucky and recovering a lot of them, they're still negatives on his rank. His completion percentage is middle of the pack as well, but that's just a thing that happens, and he could jump up 5 points if his completion percentage was 1% better. So you know.. if he continues to play well, just give it time.

Edited by RazorStar

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Week 8 QB Rankings


1. Alex Smith 11

2. Drew Brees 24 (+2)

3. Tom Brady 28

4. Dak Prescott 32 (+1)

5. Kirk Cousins 35 (-3)

6. Russell Wilson 35 (+3)


7. DeShaun Watson 44 (+4)

8. Aaron Rodgers 44 (-2)

9. Marcus Mariota 46 (-1)

10. Carson Wentz 46 (-3)

11. Tyrod Taylor 53 (+7)

12. Matt Ryan 56 (+1)

13. Jared Goff 56 (+2)

14. Derek Carr 56 (-4)

15. Case Keenum 58 (-3)

16. Josh McCown 61


17. Philip Rivers 70

18. Blake Bortles 74 (+2)

19. Jameis Winston 77 (-5)

20. Cam Newton 77 (-1)

21. Andy Dalton 79 (+2)

22. Eli Manning 79 (-1)

23. Matt Stafford 80 (+1)

24. Ben Roeth 81 (-2)


25. Carson Palmer 90

26. Jacoby Brissett 90 (+1)

27. Jay Cutler 93 (+1)

28. Mike Glennon 100 (+1)

29. Brian Hoyer 106 (+1)

30. Trevor Siemian 109 (-4)

31. Joe Flacco 112

32. C.J. Beathard 116 (NR)

33. DeShone Kizer 126 (-1)

Edited by RazorStar

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