Passing is a Brees

[Phins4life 271]

After responding to an original post by Mav about Brees tying the TD streak, I was inspired to do a little research. Several of the responses spawned some questions I wanted to find some answers to. I will now humbly present my findings. All information was compiled from PFR and two articles from the HOF site discussing both streaks in a game by game breakdown. Feel free to look over them and correct me on anything I may have missed.

 

 

In weather forecasting, we use what's known as a forecast funnel. Basically, you start with the large scale influences, and gradually work your way down to the local scale, where you nitpick your way to what you feel is a good forecast based on your findings. I'll do something similar here. Call it...the stat funnel...or something. You get the idea:

 

 

For the stats at the League level, I used the complete years in question, even though neither streak started or (in Johnny's case) ended all nice and neat for my amateur stat collecting. One thing is painfully obvious: the offensive fad of the day was to pound the rock. The pass:rush ratio wasn't even close. Baltimore didn't move to a higher pass ratio until 1960, following what was arguably one of Unitas' best years overall. However, pass:rush production moved in favor of the pass starting in 1957. Since pass attempts and yardage are so heavily influenced by the era in which the game is played (to include number of games in a regular season), I went ahead and used completion percentage and TD:INT ratio as the two main stats, since, regardless of the era, the main goal of passing is to complete every one. In all honesty, YPA could be thrown in here, but I just don't have the time (or patience) to subtract YAC to purify the stat line. The stat line for each year is as follows: highest/lowest completion percentage (out of qualified players), number of positive TD:INT ratios listed as a fraction (out of the guys who qualified for completion %), and overall completion percentage for that year.

 

1956

 

57/45 2/8 52%

 

1957

 

63/43 2/10 51%

 

1958

 

60/46 4/12 52%

 

1959

 

59/45 5/10 53%

 

1960 (NFL and AFL)

 

60/39 6/20 51%

 

 

For the entire period, this brings the combined completion % average to 52%. Of all individual stat lines from players who qualified for completion %, 32% finished with a positive TD:INT ratio.

 

Now on to present day. Keep in mind, the pool of qualified players is about 3 times the size of those from the 50's. So some of this could be skewed. Idk.

 

 

2009

 

71/49 17/32 61%

 

2010

 

68/52 25/31 59% (highest percentage of positive TD:INT ratios, but the lowest comp. %. I found that interesting)

 

2011

 

71/47 (poor Tebow) 26/34 62%

 

2012 (obviously in progress)

 

70/49 22/32 62%

 

 

So by now it's obvious that the premium on passing efficiency has increased tremendously. For this group, the combined completion percentage is 61%, with an impressive 69% of those stat lines achieving a positive TD:INT ratio.

 

 

 

Now, I'll just briefly touch on the different offenses. To keep things simple, the Colts did not pass more than they ran until 1960, when they hit a ratio of 392:345. I think this was heavily influenced by a)Johnny's performance the year before and b)the birth of a rival league. By comparison, it isn't even close for the Saints, but we already knew that. What I didn't know was how close the ratio was in 2009. 544:468, with a production ratio of roughly 2:1. From there, it progressively got to where it is today. Right now, they are 191:75 with nearly 4:1 production. The running game just isn't there right now, and Drew's accuracy has struggled far more than usual. The other big difference between the two offenses is that Baltimore thrived with 2 TE's during the time span in question. New Orleans has stuck with one for the most part.

 

 

Finally, I'll break down the performances of both QB's during the 47 game streaks they were/are on.

 

Here is Johnny Unitas:

 

TD: 102

INT: 60

Completion Percentage through that span: 54%

Comp/Att:504/931

Games with 0 INT's: 15

Games with 1 INT: 14

Total: 29/47

 

Favorite TD Targets:

 

Raymond Berry (38)

Lenny Moore (27)

Jim Mutscheller (25)

 

Unrelated Fun Fact: Of Jim Mutscheller's 220 career catches, 40 (18%) were TD's. 1 out of every 5 throws his way was a score.

 

 

Now for Drew Brees:

 

TD: 114

INT: 50

Completion Percentage through that span: 69%

Comp/Att:1302/1891

Games with 0 INT's: 17

Games with 1 INT: 15

Total: 32/47

 

Favorite TD Targets:

 

Marques Colston (22)

Lance Moore (20)

Jimmy Graham (19)

Robert Meachem (19)

 

 

So a few interesting things that pop out at me:

 

-The number of TD's and INT's are not nearly as different as I thought they would be. The biggest takeaway: Brees has the better TD:INT ratio.

 

-What I think is more impressive than the time period in which Unitas achieved the feat, is that he did it with such shitty accuracy. The passing game was still developing, and clearly a premium had not been set on being accurate, probably because most of these teams had juggernaut running backs who could get the job done in a pinch.

 

-Unitas' TE's accounted for 50% of his TD's. If you include Lenny Moore, that percentage skyrockets to roughly 90%. By comparison, Brees didn't have a single target with 25 TD's, but he had 4 with more than 15. Of the 4 primary targets, they only account for roughly 70% of his scores. Clearly Brees can spread the ball around more. But then again, he's expected to in this offense.

 

-2 of the U's targets went on to the HOF. At this point, I doubt any of Drew's top targets make it to the Hall. Purely my opinion, though.

 

-By throwing the ball nearly twice as much as Unitas in the similar time span, it's safe to say the risk of throwing a pick on any given play goes up...a lot. Despite those odds, Brees only threw a pick 2.6% of the time. Unitas threw an INT 6.4% of the time.

 

 

 

I am not by any means attempting to downplay what Unitas did. The time period dictated that the run was the most efficient way to go, but they passed anyway. During his run, he put up some of the best stats passing the ball, despite doing it with less accuracy.

 

My main goal here was to show that Brees has nearly achieved a new record, in a time where defensive schemes are far more elaborate, pass rushers are faster than ever, and shutdown corners are hot commodities. To do what he has done without elite receiving threats is equally impressive. Don't blame the scheme when he has played to perfection within it. Give the man his due. I know I'll be rooting for him on Sunday night. Apologies for the extraordinarily long post. Many thanks if you actually read the whole thing.

[RANGA+ 1,210]

Great analysis Phins, and I definitely agree with you that Brees does an incredible job week in and week out. People use the "oh but he throws 60 times a game" argument way too much. The fact that he DOES throw that much and still puts up such incredible stats makes his performances even more praiseworthy. Opposing defenses know that when Brees is on the field there's a ~70% chance on any given snap that he will throw the ball...and yet he still puts up big numbers. It's not like teams are stacking 8 in the box against the Saints. They know exactly what's coming, but Brees consistently finds open receivers and hits them with pinpoint passes. Haters gonna hate I guess.

[Eefluxx 113]

I will simply say Thank You.

[Romo 21]

Brilliant stuff Phins, I believe that Brees is an incredible quarterback and will go down as one of the best to ever play the game, he's the type of quarterback you could put with any receiver and he'll make them shine, Just look at the draft positions of his receivers.

 

Jimmy Graham: NFL Draft: 2010 / Round: 3 / Pick: 95

Devery Henderson: NFL Draft: 2004 / Round: 2 / Pick: 50

Lance Moore: Undrafted in 2005

Marques Colston: NFL Draft: 2006 / Round: 7 / Pick: 252

 

its simply incredible.

[Dutch 874]

Great post. Those QBs played in two different areas and the NFL is way different now then it was then. Just because Brees throws "X" times a game more then the old school QBs Unitas, Marino, doesn't take away from his success. If I'm asked, yes I'm going to say Marino's record is still more impressive but you can't throw dirt on Brees for getting into the record books regardless of circumstance. Throwing 50 times a game doesn't mean you'll have success. You have to actually be good at it.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Firstly, which part of PFR are you using? I am just using Johnny Us stats page, and am getting different numbers than you have posted. Although, I am using all of the 1956 season in which the streak began, and all of the 1960 season, in which the streak ended 11 games in.

 

You say with twice as many pass attempts, it obviously more likely to throw INT... But it is also more likely to throw touchdowns, get completions, and yards.

 

I am impressed that one out of every 10 throws resulted in a TD for Johnny U (11% TD rate on throws), while Drew Brees falters to nearly HALF that rate (6% TD rate on throws).

 

Not to mention that Johnny U had a higher YPA (7.99), no matter how slight, on Brees (7.83) on half the throws and 15% less completion percentage points.

 

The INT rates are very one sided, ~2.5% for Brees and ~4.7% for Unitas... But I would be willing to bet Brees throws more INT if defenders were allowed to smother and take out wideouts and TEs as they did in Johnny's day. The rules, the officials, the nature of the game just favors Brees in every way. So it's hard for me to put too much stock into INT rates, although they remain important.

 

Brees has accumulated 11 yards per completion while Johnny Unitas gains 14.5 yards per completion. 14.5 yards per completion that long ago in an era that favored defenses and was just being turned onto the idea of the passing game? INSANE.

 

Basically, every time Johnny U took the snap, he posed a bigger threat than Drew Brees ever did or can imagine of doing.

 

Every time Drew takes a snap and throws the football, he is going to score a TD 6% of the time, complete the pass 70% of the time, and on those 70% gain on average 11 yards. And on average gain 7.8 yards every time he throws, regardless if it is caught or not.

 

Every time Johnny takes a snap and throws a football, he is going to score a TD 11% of the time, complete the pass 55% of the time, and on that 55% gain on average 14.5 yards. And on average gain 8 yards every time he throws, regardless if it is caught or not.

 

Unitas squeezes more out of his 55% completion than Brees does his 70%... That's alarming and goes to show you how absolutely phenomenal Unitas was.

 

Drew Brees is a GREAT Qb. Average or even very good QBs don't come close to breaking this record, and for a reason. Brees is a special passer, and deserves the accolades he will be receiving in all likelihood this Sunday.

 

However, Unitas revolutionized the position. He shattered every passing record in history, and a lot of them are still being broken today. He is no doubt a Top 3, maybe Top 5 QB of ALL TIME and for good reason.

 

Drew Brees falls short, although, there is no shame in that.

 

I rule in favor of Old School.

 

[Phins4life 271]

Firstly, which part of PFR are you using? I am just using Johnny Us stats page, and am getting different numbers than you have posted. Although, I am using all of the 1956 season in which the streak began, and all of the 1960 season, in which the streak ended 11 games in.

 

Going back and looking at some things, I am also noting some inconsistent numbers. The TD count looks off between PFR and the other pages I used. FML. I will go back and try to find out where I screwed up. For the numbers comparison between Brees and Unitas, I only used the streaks instead of the whole seasons. For the record, here are the pages, outside of the PFR player and team pages, I used...

 

Johhny Unitas Streak

 

Drew Brees

 

I just now found this little nugget, which basically breaks down a comparison like I was trying to do. This would have been nice to have. I clearly did something wrong here, since they show Unitas throwing the ball far more than I have. Many apologies. Now I really do have to go back and check this out. There's over 100/300 comp/att I didn't even account for .

 

Streak Comparison

 

 

 

You say with twice as many pass attempts, it obviously more likely to throw INT... But it is also more likely to throw touchdowns, get completions, and yards.

 

Which he did :grinno:

 

But I get your point. This is why I said I found it surprising. The TD:INT comparison wasn't as different as I was expecting, which certainly reveals the true value Unitas had on his team.

 

 

 

The INT rates are very one sided, ~2.5% for Brees and ~4.7% for Unitas... But I would be willing to bet Brees throws more INT if defenders were allowed to smother and take out wideouts and TEs as they did in Johnny's day. The rules, the officials, the nature of the game just favors Brees in every way. So it's hard for me to put too much stock into INT rates, although they remain important.

 

Fair enough. In trying to compare them, I wanted to use what I felt was the MOST representative stat that could bridge such a wide gap. Sadly, as you mentioned, even that number falls short as a product of different chapters in history. This is the main reason why I hate getting into comparisons between players divided by half a century of football evolution. I simply don't have the number crunching ability to create a fair, weighted analysis. I would point out that PFR has Johnny listed in the top 15 since 1950 in their weighted system, while Brees lands in the top 55. My main goal was not to lower Johnny U's value, but to raise Drew's, considering he is the first in 50 years to have a chance at breaking the record.

 

 

Drew Brees is a GREAT Qb. Average or even very good QBs don't come close to breaking this record, and for a reason. Brees is a special passer, and deserves the accolades he will be receiving in all likelihood this Sunday.

 

Which is all I was really trying to get at. Too bad my credibility takes a hit for flawed research.

[oochymp 2,393]

One thing you can't really deny in this streak is the ridiculously impressive consistency. I made the comment in the other thread that I bet other modern QBs would have similar records if you throw out a week 17 game in which the QB didn't meaningfully play. Well, I went back and looked at the one guy I really had in mind on that, if you couldn't guess it was Peyton Manning, and found that in his entire career he's never even had a full season with a TD in every game (unless you ignore a week 17 game in 2004 in which he threw two passes) so I have to admit that I was wrong on that and also just make the observation that it is ridiculous to go for almost 2 and a half seasons throwing a TD in every game.

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

JD makes a good point, but you also have to think about the fact that defenses back in the day were geared up to attack the run on most plays and when Johnny started passing more often, they were not used to it/ready for it like defenses are in today's NFL. If today's NFL had sold out to stop the run on most downs, Brees would have demolished them and thrown a higher TD percentage as well.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

JD makes a good point, but you also have to think about the fact that defenses back in the day were geared up to attack the run on most plays and when Johnny started passing more often, they were not used to it/ready for it like defenses are in today's NFL. If today's NFL had sold out to stop the run on most downs, Brees would have demolished them and thrown a higher TD percentage as well.

 

Fair point, however, Phins said Baltimore didn't start to favor the pass until 1957... Did it really take defenses 4 years (the span of his streak) to realize... hey, this guy is gonna throw the ball?

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

Fair point, however, Phins said Baltimore didn't start to favor the pass until 1957... Did it really take defenses 4 years (the span of his streak) to realize... hey, this guy is gonna throw the ball?

 

Pass defense still wasn't the focus of the league at the time. They may have known he was going to do it, but they definitely were less prepared and able to defend the pass.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Pass defense still wasn't the focus of the league at the time. They may have known he was going to do it, but they definitely were less prepared and able to defend the pass.

 

I agree that defenses weren't sophisticated enough to completely lock down the pass, but you have to realize that the passing game was just being born, pretty much as well. It was a learning curve for both sides of the football. As you can tell by the relatively high INT rate and low completion percentage.

[seanbrock 1,684]

How about the single season record Eli broke of Unitas' last year. He had 14 4th quarter TD passes in the 1950's. Unitas wasn't just putting up big numbers. He was doing them when it mattered most.

[Phins4life 271]

On a slightly different note, anyone else find a little humorous irony that Brees will be attempting to break the record against the team that Unitas finished his career with?

[seanbrock 1,684]

On a slightly different note, anyone else find a little humorous irony that Brees will be attempting to break the record against the team that Unitas finished his career with?

Also the team he began his career with.

[oochymp 2,393]

On a slightly different note, anyone else find a little humorous irony that Brees will be attempting to break the record against the team that Unitas finished his career with?

Not really, I don't think anyone actually associates Unitas with the Chargers, it'd be like watching someone try to top Emmitt Smith's rushing record against Arizona, or trying to top one of Jerry Rice's records against Seattle (or Denver if you want to include his last offseason) maybe it's just me, but I really don't see much irony in that.

 

Nonetheless, it is interesting, so good catch

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Jerry Rice in a Seahawks uni...

[oochymp 2,393]

Jerry Rice in a Seahawks uni...

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Haha. So weird.

 

Like this...

 

 

Just so unnatural. I hate even thinking about these players in those uniforms.

[oochymp 2,393]

Just so unnatural. I hate even thinking about these players in those uniforms.

definitely weird to think about (I didn't even realize he played for Carolina) but I think I have an idea for a fun sideline thread (no reason to fully derail this one)

 

to get this back on target, hypothetically, which would be more intriguing in terms of teams to break Unitas' record with, the Colts or Baltimore? I'd say Baltimore since Unitas was through and through a Baltimore guy, but all of the team's history, including the players, went with it to Indy

Edited October 6, 2012 by oochymp

[Conshy 36]

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=311030014

 

The fact that Brees threw a TD pass with 6 seconds left in the fourth quarter when the Saints were down by 17 kind of makes me sick that Brees broke the record.

21 of his 44 attempts that game came in the fourth quarter. That touchdown didn't mean anything to me anymore. It was a meaningless TD made in garbage time. It sucks that the record was broken with passes like that.

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=311030014

 

The fact that Brees threw a TD pass with 6 seconds left in the fourth quarter when the Saints were down by 17 kind of makes me sick that Brees broke the record.

21 of his 44 attempts that game came in the fourth quarter. That touchdown didn't mean anything to me anymore. It was a meaningless TD made in garbage time. It sucks that the record was broken with passes like that.

 

I'm not sure I can blame Brees for that, though. If they had been up by 17 it would be lame, but being down and playing to the end of the game doesn't leave a bad taste in my mouth like the other scenario would have.

[oochymp 2,393]

http://scores.espn.g...ameId=311030014

 

The fact that Brees threw a TD pass with 6 seconds left in the fourth quarter when the Saints were down by 17 kind of makes me sick that Brees broke the record.

21 of his 44 attempts that game came in the fourth quarter. That touchdown didn't mean anything to me anymore. It was a meaningless TD made in garbage time. It sucks that the record was broken with passes like that.

what the hell do you expect them to do, take a knee at the opponent's 8 while trailing?

[Conshy 36]

I'm not sure I can blame Brees for that, though. If they had been up by 17 it would be lame, but being down and playing to the end of the game doesn't leave a bad taste in my mouth like the other scenario would have.

 

I can't say that I do. I would like to, but I can't. I will say that it is clear that Brees and the Saints playcallers were going more for keeping the streak alive than scoring on the Rams, though. They didn't have to limit the run game to six plays in the fourth quarter. If I were in Brees's position, I probably would have done the same, though. Since I'm not, I can say that I just wish that game had been different.

 

what the hell do you expect them to do, take a knee at the opponent's 8 while trailing?

 

I'm not saying that they shouldn't have gone for it. I'm saying it sucks that the TD Brees threw for in this game is part of the streak. As far as I know, every TD pass Unitas threw for was competitive with the opposing team, not with the record book.

[Thanatos 2,847]

I'm not saying that they shouldn't have gone for it. I'm saying it sucks that the TD Brees threw for in this game is part of the streak. As far as I know, every TD pass Unitas threw for was competitive with the opposing team, not with the record book.

 

Just curious, but how many of Unitas's TD passes have you seen?