Is comebacks a misleading stat?

[Maverick 791]

I proposed this in the shoutbox earlier, but thought it could lead to some good discussion so I figured I create a topic.

 

I feel you have to look at the specific situation. One could argue elite QBs don't have to "comeback." What if the QB shits the bed earlier in the game and that's the reason they had to comeback? Granted, as long as the team wins it doesn't matter if you put the game away in the 2nd quarter or won it in OT. I understand that. I just feel people are too quick to automatically give QB1 the edge over QB2 simply because QB1 has more comebacks. It shows the player's resilience, I'm not arguing that. There's a lot of factors to consider when using comebacks as an argument.

 

I don't know...I have to head to class now so hopefully there will be some good discussion in here by the time I get back....

 

...or this topic will be dismissed and my status as a fool will only grow lol.

[BwareDWare94 723]

When you're Tony Romo, and you haven't had a good kicker in your career until the second half of this season when Bailey FINALLY started making game-winning kicks, it can be. Tony's had so many potential comebacks derailed by bad kicking or defense. It's not even funny.

[56AceInDaPlace 110]

No stat should be misleading if you use all the stats and beyond to judge a player. If you only use numbers, they'll always be off in the full judgment.

 

The eye test will tell u when game is on the line, or clutch situation, who comes through and who doesn't.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Comebacks can be extremely misleading in some situations. Its also often as much a case of the QB playing well as it is the defense and apposing team playing not to lose.

 

Then you have situations like with Luck, where you are digging yourself out of your own mess.

[oochymp 2,393]

When you're Tony Romo, and you haven't had a good kicker in your career until the second half of this season when Bailey FINALLY started making game-winning kicks, it can be. Tony's had so many potential comebacks derailed by bad kicking or defense. It's not even funny.

or a better holder

 

more to the topic, it can be misleading for a few reasons, the one that can't really be refuted is that it relies on a lot the rest of the team, as Dmac pointed out, big comebacks more often than not are fueled by defense, it doesn't matter what your offense is doing, it's meaningless if your defense lets the opponent continue to score, but the defense is less of an issue when you're talking about the final drive comebacks, you also have the question of kickers, if you've got a kicker who's reliable from beyond 50 yards that makes it a lot easier for a QB to make the comeback than if you've gotta get to around the 25 to have a even decent shot, or if you can't trust your kicker from any distance (though if that's the case, find another kicker)

 

the other issue that's been brought up is the situation of QBs digging themselves out of their own hole, but is that really something to be dismissive of? I would counter that it's a lot easier mentally to play a great game from beginning to end (or to play so well early that you can coast to the win) than to screw up the first half (or more) of a game but put all those fuckups behind you and come through at the end to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat

 

the one thing I think you have to keep in mind is when you're talking about comebacks you're not really talking about how good the QB is in a pure sense, you're focusing on his mindset, his ability to put it together when the game is most in question, clutchness if you will, and I do think there's a lot of value in that, but in terms of saying QB X is better than QB Y because he has more comeback wins I don't think you're really using the stat right

[seanbrock 1,684]

Comebacks can be extremely misleading in some situations. Its also often as much a case of the QB playing well as it is the defense and apposing team playing not to lose.

 

Then you have situations like with Luck, where you are digging yourself out of your own mess.

I agree with your first point but digging yourself out of your own mess shows mental toughness. One of the most important qualities a QB can have is to not get rattled by bad plays or halves or even a bad game, especially with a young QB like Luck.

[RANGA+ 1,210]

I agree with your first point but digging yourself out of your own mess shows mental toughness. One of the most important qualities a QB can have is to not get rattled by bad plays or halves or even a bad game, especially with a young QB like Luck.

 

Yeah that's also very true. There are too many factors that affect the "comeback" stat for it to be an effective measure of a QB's worth IMO. Maybe the defense just shit itself, or there was a big special teams play. Sometimes it might not even have much to do with how the QB played in the 4th quarter. But other times it is definitely due to the QB being in the zone and leading his offense up the field multiple times. It's a very subjective stat, and needs to be used as part of a bigger holistic analysis, rather than a sole "yes QB X is better than QB Y because he has more comebacks".

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Meh, as far as I'm concerned, they are pretty meaningless. How a QB plays in crunch time is a big deal, but comebacks themselves as well as game winning drives are overrated, and too flawed to really be used in an argument, or comparison. Pretty irrelevant.

[Ness 0]

Personally I wouldn't put much stock into comebacks for an individual. There are way too many variables that go into account for a team sport. Jake Plummer and Aaron Brooks were pretty high up on their list of "comebacks" when they were playing. I think Brooks was neck and neck with Tom Brady at one point and they were starters around the same time. Some quarterbacks, like Steve Young were ahead so many times against their opponents, that a comeback wasn't even necessary. He doesn't have that many during his tenure with the 49ers. Plus it's always going to depend on the metrics you choose to chronicle what a comeback is. Is a kicker involved? Are we talking about being behind at the start of the 4th quarter? If a team takes a lead at the start of the 4th quarter and doesn't relinquish it, is that a comeback? So it depends on a lot of things. Best metric is watching the individual play with your own eyes.

[GA_Eagle 595]

It's a nice stat when coupled with the whole picture.

Edited January 18, 2013 by GA_Eagle

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

No.. I am not all that impressed when Andrew Luck puts his team down 2+ scores and then coming back. Like what was just said with GA, it's a cool stat to think about when you look at the entire scheme of things. But when you just throw out there ENTER QB has # OF COMEBACKS, it can be very misleading and pretty trivial when comparing it to another QB and his comebacks.

 

Saying things like... QB A > QB B is almost worthless, but maybe a nice thing to couple with other attributes and statistics.

[funnygunny 521]

Eli Manning.

[AL_Royalty 489]

Sure it can be misleading, but nearly every stat can be misleading when put under a microscope, especially when talking about QB stats. Matt Stafford threw for 5,000 yards in 2011, but that was misleading because he had Megatron. Chad Pennington had/has the highest comp. % in history, but they were almost exclusively passes under 20 yards. Philip Rivers is known for his big yardage passing plays, but how many of those are 8 yard dump-offs underneath that go for 70 YAC? QB rating is nice, but Alex Smith was leading the league when he got benched this season. Does anyone really think he's one of the best out there, or was it just the case of him being a solid "game manager?" Even picks can be misleading if you look at a guy like Brett Favre. He was usually near the top of the league in INTs, but he is also the all-time leader in TDs.

 

I'll say this though: there's a lot to be said for a guy who you expect to get you a win in a one score game with time winding down. That's what makes the great ones great. Guys like Cassel, Flacco, Cutler, Romo, etc... If the get the ball with a chance to win the game, I'm not like "Oh, man. They left them too much time." I think the comeback win stat is one of the more important stats used to measure a QB, because it kinda shows what a QB is made of. It doesn't paint the whole picture, but what stat really does?

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Eli Manning.

 

 

[seanbrock 1,684]

No.. I am not all that impressed when Andrew Luck puts his team down 2+ scores and then coming back. Like what was just said with GA, it's a cool stat to think about when you look at the entire scheme of things. But when you just throw out there ENTER QB has # OF COMEBACKS, it can be very misleading and pretty trivial when comparing it to another QB and his comebacks.

 

Saying things like... QB A > QB B is almost worthless, but maybe a nice thing to couple with other attributes and statistics.

It doesn't blow me away, but when a rookie is asked to do as much as Luck and throw down the field as much as he does to me it shows a lot of poise to be able to recover from not playing well. Everybody has bad games (especially rookies) but the ability to make plays with the game on the line despite that is a critical attribute for any QB.

 

We're not talking about Jake Plummer when he had all those comebacks. He was a veteran. I think sometimes here at TGP we start to irrationally be over critical of guys who are overhyped. Andrew Luck has practically been anointed as a hall of famer before he played a down. Is that right? Obviously not. Did he have as good a rookie campaign as RGIII or Wilson? No, but was he still good for a rookie? Absolutely and he could very well still end up being the best QB in this draft class. Call me crazy but I'm still taking Luck over RGIII who already has a concussion and who may have ALREADY wrecked his knee.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Sure it can be misleading, but nearly every stat can be misleading when put under a microscope, especially when talking about QB stats. Matt Stafford threw for 5,000 yards in 2011, but that was misleading because he had Megatron. Chad Pennington had/has the highest comp. % in history, but they were almost exclusively passes under 20 yards. Philip Rivers is known for his big yardage passing plays, but how many of those are 8 yard dump-offs underneath that go for 70 YAC? QB rating is nice, but Alex Smith was leading the league when he got benched this season. Does anyone really think he's one of the best out there, or was it just the case of him being a solid "game manager?" Even picks can be misleading if you look at a guy like Brett Favre. He was usually near the top of the league in INTs, but he is also the all-time leader in TDs.

 

I'll say this though: there's a lot to be said for a guy who you expect to get you a win in a one score game with time winding down. That's what makes the great ones great. Guys like Cassel, Flacco, Cutler, Romo, etc... If the get the ball with a chance to win the game, I'm not like "Oh, man. They left them too much time." I think the comeback win stat is one of the more important stats used to measure a QB, because it kinda shows what a QB is made of. It doesn't paint the whole picture, but what stat really does?

 

Off topic, but when will this ever die? Jesus. His 5000 yards was misleading because he had one great receiver? Who didn't break a single receiving record that season? It wasn't because he threw the ball more then anyone else in the NFL?

 

Of all the stats that paint a picture of a QB, comeback drives is one of the most meaningless. Most of the time it leads to a field goal anyway.