Philip Rivers is optimistic

[Vin+ 3,121]

Philip Rivers still believes his best football is ahead of him.

 

"I really do," Rivers insisted. "That's being optimistic, because we've had a lot of really good years. I am probably on the second half of my career, the back end, but I think I've got a lot of good football left." It's definitely an "optimistic" belief for a player who turned 31 in December and has committed 47 turnovers over his past 32 games. We don't doubt Rivers will cut down on his turnovers this season, but with aggressive coach Norval Turner now in Cleveland, Rivers shouldn't even approach the statistical highs of his earlier years.

 

Source: USA Today

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

I was optimistic last year when I drafted him.

 

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

I've almost given up on Rivers... One more year is all I can handle. lol. He's got minimal help on offense but I hope Allen can help him get back to form.

[Glanvilles Grits 142]

I was optimistic last year when I drafted him.

 

 

I grabbed Matt Ryan early in my draft last year, I think it was the 4th round, and Rivers still sat there in the 8th, I had to take him. One of the weeks Ryan completely shit the bed, I started Rivers and he didn't play too well either. I sat him for the rest of the year. I thought I was getting one hell of steal, apparently everyone else knew something I didn't! lol

 

 

Outside of Antonio Gates, this Chargers team just isn't that appealing. I'm interested to see what Vincent Brown can do after actually looking into the kid some more and finding out what he's all about. But that's it. They have too many question marks right now. Do they even truly have a starting running back right now?

[AL_Royalty 489]

I grabbed Matt Ryan early in my draft last year, I think it was the 4th round, and Rivers still sat there in the 8th, I had to take him. One of the weeks Ryan completely shit the bed, I started Rivers and he didn't play too well either. I sat him for the rest of the year. I thought I was getting one hell of steal, apparently everyone else knew something I didn't! lol

 

 

Outside of Antonio Gates, this Chargers team just isn't that appealing. I'm interested to see what Vincent Brown can do after actually looking into the kid some more and finding out what he's all about. But that's it. They have too many question marks right now. Do they even truly have a starting running back right now?

Gates actually shit the bed last season too. He looks to be on the HEAVY decline. I grabbed him early last year, and then I got Tony G in like the tenth round or something silly. Kept starting Gates waiting for him to "break out" while Tony was rewriting the record books.

 

I'm so tired of Rivers' whiny, cry-baby ass. Seriously, I'd be happy if he never threw another completion for the rest of his life. That includes in any family coed Turkey Bowl games that his fam may or may not play, celebrity flag football, in his next job throwing papers as the neighborhood paper boy, or playing catch with his nephew.

 

I've always thought that he was a little overrated. Watching him, he never really impressed me. He sat back and let his WRs run down field and then threw check-downs and dump-offs most of the time while his super-athletes ran for miles after the catch. I've caught a lot of flack for that opinion, but I stand by it. I've been waiting for that formula to leave him stuck for awhile. It's not just a division thing, either. I always liked LT2, Gates, and even V-Jax I respected. Rivers can suck it.

[KempBolt 498]

Gates actually shit the bed last season too. He looks to be on the HEAVY decline. I grabbed him early last year, and then I got Tony G in like the tenth round or something silly. Kept starting Gates waiting for him to "break out" while Tony was rewriting the record books.

 

I'm so tired of Rivers' whiny, cry-baby ass. Seriously, I'd be happy if he never threw another completion for the rest of his life. That includes in any family coed Turkey Bowl games that his fam may or may not play, celebrity flag football, in his next job throwing papers as the neighborhood paper boy, or playing catch with his nephew.

 

I've always thought that he was a little overrated. Watching him, he never really impressed me. He sat back and let his WRs run down field and then threw check-downs and dump-offs most of the time while his super-athletes ran for miles after the catch. I've caught a lot of flack for that opinion, but I stand by it. I've been waiting for that formula to leave him stuck for awhile. It's not just a division thing, either. I always liked LT2, Gates, and even V-Jax I respected. Rivers can suck it.

 

I heartily disagree. Shocking, I know.

 

But I think the case you made is pretty untenable when you consider that his best season came in 2010, without VJ for most of the season. Also, his best receivers over his time in SD (Jackson, Floyd) were never highly rated in terms of YAC, but Rivers still led the league for more than one season in YPA.

 

I'm also wondering what people are talking about when they call him whiny. Anything specific you're alluding to?

[Socal 524]

Gates actually shit the bed last season too. He looks to be on the HEAVY decline. I grabbed him early last year, and then I got Tony G in like the tenth round or something silly. Kept starting Gates waiting for him to "break out" while Tony was rewriting the record books.

 

I'm so tired of Rivers' whiny, cry-baby ass. Seriously, I'd be happy if he never threw another completion for the rest of his life. That includes in any family coed Turkey Bowl games that his fam may or may not play, celebrity flag football, in his next job throwing papers as the neighborhood paper boy, or playing catch with his nephew.

 

I've always thought that he was a little overrated. Watching him, he never really impressed me. He sat back and let his WRs run down field and then threw check-downs and dump-offs most of the time while his super-athletes ran for miles after the catch. I've caught a lot of flack for that opinion, but I stand by it. I've been waiting for that formula to leave him stuck for awhile. It's not just a division thing, either. I always liked LT2, Gates, and even V-Jax I respected. Rivers can suck it.

 

John, if you're going to talk shit, call him a whiney baby (that insult is soooo 2007 bro) and say he's nothing without his 'star' players then at least be able to back it up. Kemp already got you on the star players, Rivers' best year was 2010 and he had pretty much no one, what Rivers hasn't had recently what he had before was decent protection. It also doesn't help when you're 'offensive genius' coach has no idea how to adjust his play calling style, calling 7 step drops with fucking Mike Harris protecting Rivers' blind side... seriously, the kid wasn't even drafted and played RT in college.

 

There's one thing that Rivers deserves blame for is trying to force things, the last two years he has made too many mistakes out of stubbornness/pride or whatever you want to call it as opposed to there anything being wrong with him physically or mentally. I think with a new regime in town he can let all that other shit go and as long as he has a line to give him time he should do well. Here's the thing, too, if he doesnt, at least McCoy will actually fucking do something about it and change up the play calling to suit his players strengths/weaknesses.

[AL_Royalty 489]

John, if you're going to talk shit, call him a whiney baby (that insult is soooo 2007 bro) and say he's nothing without his 'star' players then at least be able to back it up. Kemp already got you on the star players, Rivers' best year was 2010 and he had pretty much no one, what Rivers hasn't had recently what he had before was decent protection. It also doesn't help when you're 'offensive genius' coach has no idea how to adjust his play calling style, calling 7 step drops with fucking Mike Harris protecting Rivers' blind side... seriously, the kid wasn't even drafted and played RT in college.

 

There's one thing that Rivers deserves blame for is trying to force things, the last two years he has made too many mistakes out of stubbornness/pride or whatever you want to call it as opposed to there anything being wrong with him physically or mentally. I think with a new regime in town he can let all that other shit go and as long as he has a line to give him time he should do well. Here's the thing, too, if he doesnt, at least McCoy will actually fucking do something about it and change up the play calling to suit his players strengths/weaknesses.

I never said anywhere that he's nothing without his star players. I said he let athletes run down field and throw a bunch of dump-offs and check-downs, whether it be to a back, a TE, a WR, what have you. He is capable of throwing a deep ball, so teams tighten up on guys outside leaving the underneath routes and backfield routes open. I said I LIKED the star players, just not Rivers. I just always thought he was overrated. He was good, but not great. Plus his face irks me, so it amplifies his—imo—being overrated.

 

I'm glad you mentioned the protection he used to get. That's what I mean when I said he sit's back and waits. He didn't have to force things because he didn't get touched in a lot of the games I watched. He was a soldier of fortune in many cases. For the record, I do think he was at one point a good QB. I just don't think he was ever as great as everyone said.

 

Rivers was at or near the top of the league more than a couple times in YAC. Nothing wrong with that, but it doesn't make him the second coming of Dan Marino. People bash Romo all the time for "choking," but Rivers is elite. What's he done with his Championship caliber arm? If losing is a team effort for the Chargers, than so is winning. Rivers was a piece of a damn good offense, but he wasn't THE offense. Don't like him. We'll have to agree to disagree on this one, because I'm pretty stuck in my ways when it comes to Rivers.

[BradyFan81 404]

People hate on Rivers too much. He had a decent season last year behind one of the worst OLs in the league. He probably had a better season than Eli Manning last year. Give him some protections and receivers and he'll be even better.

[KempBolt 498]

I never said anywhere that he's nothing without his star players. I said he let athletes run down field and throw a bunch of dump-offs and check-downs, whether it be to a back, a TE, a WR, what have you. He is capable of throwing a deep ball, so teams tighten up on guys outside leaving the underneath routes and backfield routes open. I said I LIKED the star players, just not Rivers. I just always thought he was overrated. He was good, but not great. Plus his face irks me, so it amplifies his—imo—being overrated.

 

I'm glad you mentioned the protection he used to get. That's what I mean when I said he sit's back and waits. He didn't have to force things because he didn't get touched in a lot of the games I watched. He was a soldier of fortune in many cases. For the record, I do think he was at one point a good QB. I just don't think he was ever as great as everyone said.

 

Rivers was at or near the top of the league more than a couple times in YAC. Nothing wrong with that, but it doesn't make him the second coming of Dan Marino. People bash Romo all the time for "choking," but Rivers is elite. What's he done with his Championship caliber arm? If losing is a team effort for the Chargers, than so is winning. Rivers was a piece of a damn good offense, but he wasn't THE offense. Don't like him. We'll have to agree to disagree on this one, because I'm pretty stuck in my ways when it comes to Rivers.

 

When was he at or near the top of the league in YAC? I can't find any stats for this for QB's.

[AL_Royalty 489]

When was he at or near the top of the league in YAC? I can't find any stats for this for QB's.

You have to look at the receiving stats for the team. There's a YAC total. Provided your QB started the full 16 games, that's an accurate account of how many of his passing yards were YAC. For Rivers, last season he threw for only 3606 yards. Nearly 2000 of it (1928) came after the catch. In comparison, Brees threw for around 45% more yards than Rivers, yet he only had 15% more YAC.

 

Truth be told, there's a few QB's who routinely get a lot of YAC. I just never could stomach Rivers. It's usually close to half of his yards, which in itself isn't really that much of a knock. I just never really thought he was this top five guy that people used to say he was. I put him in the same class as Romo, Flacco, and the rest of the good-but-not-great QBs out there.

[KempBolt 498]

You have to look at the receiving stats for the team. There's a YAC total. Provided your QB started the full 16 games, that's an accurate account of how many of his passing yards were YAC. For Rivers, last season he threw for only 3606 yards. Nearly 2000 of it (1928) came after the catch. In comparison, Brees threw for around 45% more yards than Rivers, yet he only had 15% more YAC.

 

Truth be told, there's a few QB's who routinely get a lot of YAC. I just never could stomach Rivers. It's usually close to half of his yards, which in itself isn't really that much of a knock. I just never really thought he was this top five guy that people used to say he was. I put him in the same class as Romo, Flacco, and the rest of the good-but-not-great QBs out there.

 

I think those numbers are a bit skewed. We've run a lot of screens to make up for the lack of protection and running game. And screens, by design, have the back catching the ball in the backfield. But espn's YAC statistics for receivers will count the yards they gain back to the LOS. So if Rivers throws a screen to a back, the catch is 8 yards behind the LOS, and the back gains 10 yards past the LOS, then the stats will show that as a 10 yard pass by Rivers but 18 yards of YAC. So any QB in a Norv Turner offense is going to be screwed in this regard because Norv loves the screen game.

 

But I'm not really arguing about 2012 Rivers. He was bad. I just think it's hard to argue that he was not great at one time. It remains to be seen if he can get back there.

[OakBlack 28]

Well, I'm just gonna be honest here. I cant stand Rivers! Never have, never will. BUT..you cant place the blame on him alone. If you take away the weapons from any top QB and let the quality of the O-line deteriorate, most quality QBs will struggle as well.

 

The best thing to happen for the Chargers organization, was the shit canning of AJ Smith and Norv Turner! Period! A little too late IMO but it had to be done. AJ Smith is an idiot, didn't know how good he had it with Schottenheimer. Chargers go 14-2 and they fire Marty in favor of Norv Turner? Just because of his contentious relationship with Smith? HA! Turner is just another recycled retread of a coach. And better decision making is also needed by ownership, I also hold them accountable for allowing an arrogant, toolbag of a GM to fire a 14-2 head coach! But as far as I can see Rivers still has plenty left in the tank, and I think a change of coaching and leadership(Whisenhunt & McCoy) will benefit Rivers and the rest of the team greatly.

[KempBolt 498]

Well, I'm just gonna be honest here. I cant stand Rivers! Never have, never will. BUT..you cant place the blame on him alone. If you take away the weapons from any top QB and let the quality of the O-line deteriorate, most quality QBs will struggle as well.

 

The best thing to happen for the Chargers organization, was the shit canning of AJ Smith and Norv Turner! Period! A little too late IMO but it had to be done. AJ Smith is an idiot, didn't know how good he had it with Schottenheimer. Chargers go 14-2 and they fire Marty in favor of Norv Turner? Just because of his contentious relationship with Smith? HA! Turner is just another recycled retread of a coach. And better decision making is also needed by ownership, I also hold them accountable for allowing an arrogant, toolbag of a GM to fire a 14-2 head coach! But as far as I can see Rivers still has plenty left in the tank, and I think a change of coaching and leadership(Whisenhunt & McCoy) will benefit Rivers and the rest of the team greatly.

 

The crazy thing is that we were able to win with Norv. It was stupid to break up the coaching staff we had in 2006, but for all that we still got to the AFCCG the next season. Norv drove me nuts trying to be a HC and OC at the same time, but I think aside from that he was decent enough. The real problem was A.J. allowing guys like Drew Brees, Michael Turner, Darren Sproles, and Vincent Jackson to basically leave for nothing, while not replacing them adequately. Once our roster got better, he started trying to pinpoint specific positions and he would reach for players that inevitably busted (Davis, English, Cason). And when disaster stuck with losing McNeill and Dielman to injury at basically the same time, we had no choice but to pay lazy ass Gaither because A.J. hadn't invested any resources into depth on the offensive line. If we're doling out blame for the state of the Chargers currently, I place about 90% of it on Smith's shoulders.

[BJORN 679]

I heartily disagree. Shocking, I know.

 

But I think the case you made is pretty untenable when you consider that his best season came in 2010, without VJ for most of the season. Also, his best receivers over his time in SD (Jackson, Floyd) were never highly rated in terms of YAC, but Rivers still led the league for more than one season in YPA.

 

I'm also wondering what people are talking about when they call him whiny. Anything specific you're alluding to?

They confuse him with Cutler.

[Stewy 8]

They confuse him with Cutler.

 

Most Bronco fans remember Rivers yelling across the field obscenities at Cutler after the game was all but won. There is also his taunting Colts fans after beating them in the playoffs then the next year complaining about the Patriots doing Merriman's dance. I can understand why some would view him this way. Being a Bronco fan I have never viewed him as whiny but more on the side of passion. This guy cares about the game and sometimes that comes out in a negative sense.

[KempBolt 498]

Most Bronco fans remember Rivers yelling across the field obscenities at Cutler after the game was all but won. There is also his taunting Colts fans after beating them in the playoffs then the next year complaining about the Patriots doing Merriman's dance. I can understand why some would view him this way. Being a Bronco fan I have never viewed him as whiny but more on the side of passion. This guy cares about the game and sometimes that comes out in a negative sense.

 

Just a small point- Rivers has never yelled obscenities on the field. He talks plenty, but it's all clean. You can hear it whenever he's mic'd up. He told reporters one time that he won't say anything on a football field that he wouldn't repeat afterwards to his grandma.

[Stewy 8]

Just a small point- Rivers has never yelled obscenities on the field. He talks plenty, but it's all clean. You can hear it whenever he's mic'd up. He told reporters one time that he won't say anything on a football field that he wouldn't repeat afterwards to his grandma.

 

I am not a lip reader so maybe you are right.

[KempBolt 498]

You have to look at the receiving stats for the team. There's a YAC total. Provided your QB started the full 16 games, that's an accurate account of how many of his passing yards were YAC. For Rivers, last season he threw for only 3606 yards. Nearly 2000 of it (1928) came after the catch. In comparison, Brees threw for around 45% more yards than Rivers, yet he only had 15% more YAC.

 

Truth be told, there's a few QB's who routinely get a lot of YAC. I just never could stomach Rivers. It's usually close to half of his yards, which in itself isn't really that much of a knock. I just never really thought he was this top five guy that people used to say he was. I put him in the same class as Romo, Flacco, and the rest of the good-but-not-great QBs out there.

 

I stumbled on some "Air Yards" statistics this morning and did a little digging on Rivers. These statistics measure what percentage of each QB's pass travels through the air on average. So the more "Air Yards," the less that QB was relying on YAC.

 

I found that Rivers was 32nd in this measure in 2012, which is likely what gave you the idea that he relies on YAC. However, looking at his previous seasons I found that 2012 was an abberation. Which makes sense, because Rivers was under pressure at an alarming rate without a running game- forcing him to dump passes off to his running backs early and often. And it's not as though 2012 was the season that gave him the reputation as a top shelf QB (far from it!).

 

Here are his previous seasons' rankings:

 

2011: 8th, http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012/01/air-yards-2011.html

 

2010: 6th, http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2010/

 

2009: 3rd, http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2009/

 

2008: 3rd, http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/01/air-yards-2008.html

 

2007: 23rd, http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2007/

 

2006: 6th, http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/08/2006-qb-air-yards.html

 

So with the exceptions of 2007 and 2012, wherein Rivers was first learning Norv Turner's system and then when his offensive line was a dumpster fire, Rivers has an average career rank of 5th in Air yards. And if you include those two bad seasons (which were poor outings for him anyways), he's still 12th. It looks to me like the years wherein Rivers established himself as a pro bowl caliber QB were also the years he relied on after-catch yardage the least.

 

So I guess if the measure of a QB is how much of his yardage travels through the air, Rivers must be pretty good.

[AL_Royalty 489]

I stumbled on some "Air Yards" statistics this morning and did a little digging on Rivers. These statistics measure what percentage of each QB's pass travels through the air on average. So the more "Air Yards," the less that QB was relying on YAC.

 

I found that Rivers was 32nd in this measure in 2012, which is likely what gave you the idea that he relies on YAC. However, looking at his previous seasons I found that 2012 was an abberation. Which makes sense, because Rivers was under pressure at an alarming rate without a running game- forcing him to dump passes off to his running backs early and often. And it's not as though 2012 was the season that gave him the reputation as a top shelf QB (far from it!).

 

Here are his previous seasons' rankings:

 

2011: 8th, http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012/01/air-yards-2011.html

 

2010: 6th, http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2010/

 

2009: 3rd, http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2009/

 

2008: 3rd, http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/01/air-yards-2008.html

 

2007: 23rd, http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2007/

 

2006: 6th, http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/08/2006-qb-air-yards.html

 

So with the exceptions of 2007 and 2012, wherein Rivers was first learning Norv Turner's system and then when his offensive line was a dumpster fire, Rivers has an average career rank of 5th in Air yards. And if you include those two bad seasons (which were poor outings for him anyways), he's still 12th. It looks to me like the years wherein Rivers established himself as a pro bowl caliber QB were also the years he relied on after-catch yardage the least.

 

So I guess if the measure of a QB is how much of his yardage travels through the air, Rivers must be pretty good.

From what I saw there, one site lists QB's in order of total AY, while the other lists them in order of AY per throw. Also, in 2008 when Rivers was third in this stat, he was also fourth in the NFL in YAC, so it did nothing to sway me. In 2009, where you have him listed at 3rd again, the link has him at 8th. In 2010, HALF of his total yards were AY, which would make the other half YAC I believe. 50% YAC.

 

Nice work on digging up the stats, but while attempting to show me I was wrong you also showed me that I was right.

Edited June 20, 2013 by B-isforBowe

[KempBolt 498]

From what I saw there, one site lists QB's in order of total AY, while the other lists them in order of AY per throw. Also, in 2008 when Rivers was third in this stat, he was also fourth in the NFL in YAC, so it did nothing to sway me. In 2009, where you have him listed at 3rd again, the link has him at 8th. In 2010, HALF of his total yards were AY, which would make the other half YAC I believe. 50% YAC.

 

Nice work on digging up the stats, but while attempting to show me I was wrong you also showed me that I was right.

 

Not true.

 

The important measure is air yards per attempt. All of the tables include that stat. That's the one that allows you to compare all QB's, regardless of how much they were asked to throw the football. Gross Air yards or gross YAC tells you nothing because different QB's throw more than others. Air yards per attempt tells you how much they are getting done per throw with just their arm. And Rivers has obviously been among the best at getting a lot done with just his arm.

 

So if you sort the tables for that stat, like I did, my rankings are correct. And it shows you that you are wrong about Rivers .

[AL_Royalty 489]

Not true.

 

The important measure is air yards per attempt. All of the tables include that stat. That's the one that allows you to compare all QB's, regardless of how much they were asked to throw the football. Gross Air yards or gross YAC tells you nothing because different QB's throw more than others. Air yards per attempt tells you how much they are getting done per throw with just their arm. And Rivers has obviously been among the best at getting a lot done with just his arm.

 

So if you sort the tables for that stat, like I did, my rankings are correct. And it shows you that you are wrong about Rivers .

Eh, not really. I guess it's all in what you value, and what I was saying is still true: about half of his passing yards come on the ground. This stat doesn't change that. It's a nice stat though, and it does show he might not be as bad as I thought, necessarily. I still don't think he's as good as you do though.

[KempBolt 498]

Eh, not really. I guess it's all in what you value, and what I was saying is still true: about half of his passing yards come on the ground. This stat doesn't change that. It's a nice stat though, and it does show he might not be as bad as I thought, necessarily. I still don't think he's as good as you do though.

 

All I'm saying is that gross YAC doesn't tell you anything. Players who throw more are going to have more than those who throw less, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're getting more YAC per pass.

[AL_Royalty 489]

All I'm saying is that gross YAC doesn't tell you anything. Players who throw more are going to have more than those who throw less, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're getting more YAC per pass.

I'm talking percentage of yards. When half of your passing yards are on the ground, that is a bit telling. Honestly though, I just use the stat to illustrate what I actually see when I watch him. No one listens to, "I watch the guy and this is what I see," anymore. They want numbers and facts to back up opinion and eye-balling, and I think looking at the ratio of YAC to AY is a pretty decent indicator. Most of the time, Rivers' is almost split.

[KempBolt 498]

I'm talking percentage of yards. When half of your passing yards are on the ground, that is a bit telling. Honestly though, I just use the stat to illustrate what I actually see when I watch him. No one listens to, "I watch the guy and this is what I see," anymore. They want numbers and facts to back up opinion and eye-balling, and I think looking at the ratio of YAC to AY is a pretty decent indicator. Most of the time, Rivers' is almost split.

 

FWIW, I am fine with you just telling me me what you see. I just won't always agree.