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Falcons Looking At The #1 Pick?

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With a little under two weeks left before the 2014 NFL Draft it is that time for rumors, stories, and moves to start flying. The latest (and potentially most important) story developing out of nfl.com is about the Atlanta Falcons looking at making a trade with the Houston Texans for the #1 pick to draft Jadeveon Clowney.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000343995/article/jadeveon-clowney-to-do-one-or-two-drills-for-atlanta-falcons?campaign=Twitter_nfl_cb

 

With the idea out there I would like to know what you think about one or all of these points

  • How do you feel about Clowney's fit with Atlanta, and is it worth the Falcons trading up for?

 

  • What do you imagine the Falcons will have to give up in order to move up to Houston's spot?

 

  • Who do you think the Texans are targeting at #6? Are they truely that in love with someone enough to move back or the other way around?

 

  • Would this shake up or set the tone for the draft? Or will Oakland at #5 still be the pivot point of the draft?
Edited by butta55

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  • How do you feel about Clowney's fit with Atlanta, and is it worth the Falcons trading up for?

Clowney would fit Atlanta's new plans to move to a 4-3 Under (same defense Seattle and Jacksonville currently run) perfectly. He could be their "Elephant/LEO." As far as if it's worth it? Depends on what they'd have to give up for him. I probably wouldn't do it myself though, I might just grab Matthews then hope Attaochu falls to me in the 2nd.

 

  • What do you imagine the Falcons will have to give up in order to move up to Houston's spot?

No idea. Probably the swap of 1sts this year, a 2nd and 3rd and maybe next year's 2nd or something. It seems like the draft value chart is out dated so I have no idea what it would take to move up.

 

  • Who do you think the Texans are targeting at #6? Are they truely that in love with someone enough to move back or the other way around?

You would think Bortles but they'd have to bank on JAX, CLE and OAK passing on him. If not him maybe Barr since they run a 3-4?

  • Would this shake up or set the tone for the draft? Or will Oakland at #5 still be the pivot point of the draft?

I think most people expect Clowney to go 1st no matter what so not really. I think Oakland will definitely be more influential.

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With a little under two weeks left before the 2014 NFL Draft it is that time for rumors, stories, and moves to start flying. The latest (and potentially most important) story developing out of nfl.com is about the Atlanta Falcons looking at making a trade with the Houston Texans for the #1 pick to draft Jadeveon Clowney.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000343995/article/jadeveon-clowney-to-do-one-or-two-drills-for-atlanta-falcons?campaign=Twitter_nfl_cb

 

With the idea out there I would like to know what you think about one or all of these points

  • How do you feel about Clowney's fit with Atlanta, and is it worth the Falcons trading up for?

 

  • What do you imagine the Falcons will have to give up in order to move up to Houston's spot?

 

  • Who do you think the Texans are targeting at #6? Are they truely that in love with someone enough to move back or the other way around?

 

  • Would this shake up or set the tone for the draft? Or will Oakland at #5 still be the pivot point of the draft?

 

Goat Sampson is pretty much on the money with all four points.

Just on the 3rd q, Bortles would likely be the target, but if they trade down, it would not surprise me in the least if they grab Aaron Donald. The guy has no red flags or question marks and his situation is remarkably reminiscent of JJ Watt a few draft's back. He has the motor, skills and versatility to warrant a very high pick in this draft.

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  • How do you feel about Clowney's fit with Atlanta, and is it worth the Falcons trading up for?

Clowney would fit Atlanta's new plans to move to a 4-3 Under (same defense Seattle and Jacksonville currently run) perfectly. He could be their "Elephant/LEO." As far as if it's worth it? Depends on what they'd have to give up for him. I probably wouldn't do it myself though, I might just grab Matthews then hope Attaochu falls to me in the 2nd.

 

 

I've been hearing Atlanta wants to move to an odd front which is why this trade was confusing me. For most people who aren't unrealistically in love with Clowney, they agree he doesn't fit best as a 3-4 OLB, but rather a 4-3 end. So if Atlanta really is looking to utlize a odd look I'm not seeing why they target Clowney.

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I've been hearing Atlanta wants to move to an odd front which is why this trade was confusing me. For most people who aren't unrealistically in love with Clowney, they agree he doesn't fit best as a 3-4 OLB, but rather a 4-3 end. So if Atlanta really is looking to utlize a odd look I'm not seeing why they target Clowney.

 

 

It's not a tradition 3-4, it's a 4-3 Under. It has 3-4 principles though and at times they will have an odd front with a stand up end. It's basically a "hybrid" of both. Seattle runs it, Jacksonville (via old Seattle DC Gus Bradley) runs it. Look up the 4-3 Under. They usually employ a long, leaner fast guy in a "Leo" or "Elephant" role as an edge player to rush the passer. Pete Carroll used Charles Haley in that role back in his 49ers days. In Seattle it's been Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin. They basically line up wide in the 9 gap and just go attack the QB. Trust me it's a fit.

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I've been hearing Atlanta wants to move to an odd front which is why this trade was confusing me. For most people who aren't unrealistically in love with Clowney, they agree he doesn't fit best as a 3-4 OLB, but rather a 4-3 end. So if Atlanta really is looking to utlize a odd look I'm not seeing why they target Clowney.

 

 

It's not a tradition 3-4, it's a 4-3 Under. It has 3-4 principles though and at times they will have an odd front with a stand up end. It's basically a "hybrid" of both. Seattle runs it, Jacksonville (via old Seattle DC Gus Bradley) runs it. Look up the 4-3 Under. They usually employ a long, leaner fast guy in a "Leo" or "Elephant" role as an edge player to rush the passer. Pete Carroll used Charles Haley in that role back in his 49ers days. In Seattle it's been Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin. They basically line up wide in the 9 gap and just go attack the QB. Trust me it's a fit.

 

Oh I know the 4-3 Under, ran it my first three years of coaching. And while we never used an odd front or had any 3-4 looks I can see how you can make marry it into a hybrid. If that is the case it will solely depend on what type of coverage the DC wants to run because for the defense I coached in our "elephant" which we called a stinger...he almost never blitzed and was usually out on a slot against a 10 or 11 personnel team. I can see Clowney fitting but alot of that depends on how they want to use him.

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  • How do you feel about Clowney's fit with Atlanta, and is it worth the Falcons trading up for?

He's a great fit, he is like the chosen one this franchise has been waiting for...for years. John Abraham was great, but he did most of his work alone. We actually have a very respectable front now. Guys like, Soilai, Jackson, Babs, Peters, Biermann, Massaquoi and Osi are all solid players, we are just missing that elite edge rusher. Whether it be Mack or Clowney, we should get one or the other at the right price...

  • What do you imagine the Falcons will have to give up in order to move up to Houston's spot?

I fear.

I've heard us giving up our first and second from this year, and a first from next year...that is not a whole lot, but still a steep price nonetheless...and that's the minimum.

In the end. I don't think we trade for number 1. If the Texans take Bortles at 1...that's when I think Atlanta instantly trades up for Clowney.

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  • What do you imagine the Falcons will have to give up in order to move up to Houston's spot?

I don't know enough about the prospects and team needs to address any of the other questions, so I'm just going to deal with this one. The Falcons currently sit at the 6th pick so we actually have a really good model in the Redskins' trade up from the 6th pick to the second in 2012 for RG3, they gave the Rams first round picks in 2012, 2013, and 2014 and a second round pick in 2012. I do think that was a peculiar circumstance in that they were trading up for a QB and if memory serves there were other teams in the auction for the Rams pick, both of those factors served to increase the value of that pick, so I don't think the price would be quite as steep for the Falcons this year, but I'm sure it's the minimum the Texans are using as a starting point.

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  • What do you imagine the Falcons will have to give up in order to move up to Houston's spot?

I fear.

I've heard us giving up our first and second from this year, and a first from next year...that is not a whole lot, but still a steep price nonetheless...and that's the minimum.

In the end. I don't think we trade for number 1. If the Texans take Bortles at 1...that's when I think Atlanta instantly trades up for Clowney.

 

Maybe we have different price ranges, but for me two #1s and a #2 is a huge price for me. If that is the deal I would stay away from it.

 

Whatever the deal is though all signs point that the Falcons are getting aggressive on this move. They are with Clowney for the second straight day and doing some mystery "test" that will take five minutes, but they put their whole day aside for it. Another thought is that Houston drafts Clowney for the Falcons and they trade their picks later.

 

***Update****

The "mystery" test is a biomechanical test to see what Clowney's full range of motion is in all of his joints aka the Falcons are getting every single detail down.

Edited by butta55

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  • What do you imagine the Falcons will have to give up in order to move up to Houston's spot?

I fear.

I've heard us giving up our first and second from this year, and a first from next year...that is not a whole lot, but still a steep price nonetheless...and that's the minimum.

In the end. I don't think we trade for number 1. If the Texans take Bortles at 1...that's when I think Atlanta instantly trades up for Clowney.

 

Maybe we have different price ranges, but for me two #1s and a #2 is a huge price for me. If that is the deal I would stay away from it.

 

Whatever the deal is though all signs point that the Falcons are getting aggressive on this move. They are with Clowney for the second straight day and doing some mystery "test" that will take five minutes, but they put their whole day aside for it. Another thought is that Houston drafts Clowney for the Falcons and they trade their picks later.

 

***Update****

The "mystery" test is a biomechanical test to see what Clowney's full range of motion is in all of his joints aka the Falcons are getting every single detail down.

 

 

It is a great risk... but be honest...who was the last edge rusher to look, play, and have the potential that Clowney does?

 

But yeah, Lord Dimitroff is aggressive, and he's ramping it up less than two weeks out before the draft....I fear....I fear.

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Most of the articles I have seen are claiming that if the Falcons want to trade up to #1 it will take a swap of this years number 1's, this year's second rounder and next year's first rounder. Too much in my book. I may be wrong (lol wouldn't be the first time) but I do NOT think Clowney will be the gem 5 years down the road in this draft. I don't even think that he will be the best player this season from this draft either.

The Falcons have too many other priorities than to waste trading picks on Clowney.

 

The Falcons are known to be secretive at times though...it is entirely possible that all the fixation on Clowney is a smoke screen to drive the price of the pick up which would in someway benefit them (how?).

Edited by southgadawg

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  • What do you imagine the Falcons will have to give up in order to move up to Houston's spot?

I fear.

I've heard us giving up our first and second from this year, and a first from next year...that is not a whole lot, but still a steep price nonetheless...and that's the minimum.

In the end. I don't think we trade for number 1. If the Texans take Bortles at 1...that's when I think Atlanta instantly trades up for Clowney.

 

Maybe we have different price ranges, but for me two #1s and a #2 is a huge price for me. If that is the deal I would stay away from it.

 

Whatever the deal is though all signs point that the Falcons are getting aggressive on this move. They are with Clowney for the second straight day and doing some mystery "test" that will take five minutes, but they put their whole day aside for it. Another thought is that Houston drafts Clowney for the Falcons and they trade their picks later.

 

***Update****

The "mystery" test is a biomechanical test to see what Clowney's full range of motion is in all of his joints aka the Falcons are getting every single detail down.

 

 

It is a great risk... but be honest...who was the last edge rusher to look, play, and have the potential that Clowney does?

 

But yeah, Lord Dimitroff is aggressive, and he's ramping it up less than two weeks out before the draft....I fear....I fear.

 

This opens up another discussion if we are talking about my evaluation of Clowney. Long story short is I'm not as sold on him as everyone else. I think people that want him to stand up and play anything close to LB will be sadly mistaken and hurting his value. As a pure hand down pass rusher he has immense potential but hasn't shown me anything to believe he will end up being a complete package. He will make an impact but a king ransom for him? Not sure

 

 

 

Most of the articles I have seen are claiming that if the Falcons want to trade up to #1 it will take a swap of this years number 1's, this year's second rounder and next year's first rounder. Too much in my book. I may be wrong (lol wouldn't be the first time) but I do NOT think Clowney will be the gem 5 years down the road in this draft. I don't even think that he will be the best player this season from this draft either.

The Falcons have too many other priorities than to waste trading picks on Clowney.

 

The Falcons are known to be secretive at times though...it is entirely possible that all the fixation on Clowney is a smoke screen to drive the price of the pick up which would in someway benefit them (how?).

I agree mostly with your thoughts on Clowney

 

Getting into the draft over the last five or so years, I realize that the biggest smoke screen is the truth. Since everyone is paranoid about everything teams usually tip their hands way before the draft but no one is ready to believe that it is nothing more than a smoke screen. With that being said I don't think this is a smoke screen this soon to the draft and pushing the price up for the player they want would not help the Falcons at all lol.

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2014 NFL Draft economics: Should Falcons trade up to No.1?

By Will Brinson | NFL Writer
April 25, 2014 1:50 pm ET
2014_NFL_Mock_Draft_Jadeveon_Clowney_Fal

 

Is Jadeveon Clowney worth Atlanta trading up to No. 1 overall? (USATSI)

More NFL offseason: Mock Drafts | Prospect Rankings | Pro Days | Top free agents

The Atlanta Falcons can't just draft Jadeveon Clowney. And they can't simply trade for him. But they can pursue him. The question is: should they?

The answer's complex and a lot depends on the compensation involved. A report out there pegs the Falcons needing their 2014 first-round pick (No. 6 overall), their 2014 second-round pick (No. 37 overall) and their 2015 first-round pick.

More on that in a second. First the pros and cons of acquiring Clowney.

Optimists of the deal point to Thomas Dimitroff's success in making a previous move up the draft board for elite talent. Grabbing Julio Jones in the 2011 NFL Draft cost Atlanta quite the bounty but you can reasonably make the case they won that trade. Would the Browns give up Brandon Weeden, Phil Taylor, Greg Little, Owen Marecic and a fourth-round pick straight-up for Jones right now? Yes, yes they absolutely would.

Jones didn't win the Super Bowl for Atlanta but he was leading the NFL in receiving yards per game in 2013 when he suffered a season-ending injury against the Jets. He's a game-changing, transcendent talent.

Clowney could be the same type of talent and he fits a position of need for Atlanta. Drafting for need is dumb unless the best player in the draft plays the same position. And, man, does Clowney check both boxes. He's the consensus top player and he gets after the passer like few players we've seen come out of college football. He single-handedly made it OK to use the word "freak" again during draft profiling. Atlanta was terrible rushing quarterbacks in 2013, finishing with just 32 sacks, 29th in the league.

See? Many reasons to love this potential move. But it's not all puppies and sunshine up in here.

Just like you can point out the Falcons won the deal for Julio, you can point out they also lostthe Julio deal. How does that work? Well, the Falcons shouldn't get credit for the Browns being terrible at drafting football players. With the Taylor pick, Cleveland could've landedCameron Jordan (drafted three picks later) or Muhammad Wilkerson (drafted nine picks later). With the Little pick, Cleveland could've gotten Randall Cobb (drafted five picks later).

We don't even need to go further: would Cleveland trade Mo Wilk and Cobb for Julio? No the Browns wouldn't, and they definitely wouldn't if they had to also throw in another first-round pick.

Atlanta suffered in 2013 because it lacked depth. Hitting on a group of players (admittedly easier in hindsight) with the picks the Falcons shipped to Cleveland would make them a much stronger and deeper team right now.

Back to Clowney. The question becomes whether Atlanta is "one player away." It's hard to fathom that it is, primarily because no team is a single player shy of constructing a perfect roster in today's NFL. There's a churn that comes with building a constant competitor and it involves successfully selecting cheap, quality players in the draft, retaining the right personnel and avoiding high-cost whiffs in free agency.

The Falcons had one of the worst six records in the league last year, so it's not like they were knocking on the door. There were lots of injuries last season and Atlanta should be luckier with those in 2014. Atlanta also played lots of young players last season, so its overall talent and depth should improve based on a year of experience.

Losing picks to land Clowney would sap that depth though. Let's take 2015's first-round pick off the table. If Dimitroff's giving up that to move up five spots it's too much and I suddenly hate the deal. (Unless the Texans and Falcons SWAP first-rounders next year in an awesome game of draft roulette. Now that would make 2014 interesting.) Personally I think giving up a second-round pick in 2014 would actually be an alright deal for both sides. Houston is only moving down five spots, they can still get a player they want and there's no added pressure on a quarterback they drafted in the top spot over Clowney.

But that might not be enough to actually pull it off. So let's give Houston three picks: Atlanta's No. 6 pick, Atlanta's second-round pick (No. 37 overall) and Atlanta's fourth-round pick (No. 103 overall).

We're also taking the hindsight approach and giving the Falcons better picks than the Browns took because, well, they're not the Browns. Sorry, Cleveland. (Also, Pete Prisco graded the Cameron pick higher than the Taylor pick and the Cobb pick higher than the Little pick at the time. It was just a Browns thing, y'all.) For the 2014 picks I used NFL Draft Scout's prospect rankings and picked in the pick range or below overall.

And, for the record, I love Julio Jones and supported the trade for him at the time.

BmFjgWfCEAA4hu5.png

 

No doubt the left side is a lot "sexier" in the sense of how good Jones and Clowney are/can be. But that right side has the makings of, I think, pushing the Falcons a lot closer to being aSuper Bowl contender than the left side.So which set of players would you prefer?

Suddenly the offensive line -- perhaps Atlanta's biggest problem in 2013 -- has a ton of depth and looks like a strength.

You can manipulate this some too: give the Falcons Whitney Mercilus (drafted by the Texans, ironically enough) instead of David DeCastro and Jace Amaro (a Tony Gonzalez replacement of sorts) instead of Van Noy.

It's easier to wiggle around because we're talking hypotheticals, but it's also easier because we're talking more players. It's critical to obtain elite talent in the NFL. But "stars and scrubs" rosters will struggle; ask the Detroit Lions, a team loaded with top-heavy contracts from the old CBA, how that works out.

It gets even murkier if you start talking about more compensation for the Texans. Would they really take just two extra picks to move out of the top spot? There doesn't appear to be a bananas market for Clowney, at least like there was for Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin IIIin 2012. No surprise there. Moving out of the top spot would mean reducing pressure on a potential quarterback pick for the Texans. Blake Bortles or Teddy Bridgewater wouldn't be compared in perpetuity to Clowney's production.

Atlanta's 2015 first-round pick is probably -- definitely? -- on the table as well. If a team's in win-now mode and needs to bounce back from a bad season, nothing's more popular than mortgaging the future.

For all we know, the Texans may be fine sticking with Clowney unless they get a bounty of picks. And maybe the Falcons prefer moving their first-round pick (an unknown number at this point obviously) instead of giving up the 37th best player in a stacked draft while trying to win now.

There's no question, at least in my mind, that Clowney is "worth" the top pick. He's the best player in this draft and he could single-handedly change a defense. He will absolutely change the way offenses plan for defenses.

But it's not as easy as debating whether Clowney is worth the top pick in the case of the Falcons. There are complex layers of football economics built into the debate. Acquiring elite talent at the top of the NFL Draft sounds like a smart plan, but it comes at a cost.

If the Falcons decide to be bold for the second time in the last three years, we may find out just how much.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24539086/nfl-draft-economics-should-falcons-trade-up-to-no-1

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Just like you can point out the Falcons won the deal for Julio, you can point out they also lostthe Julio deal. How does that work? Well, the Falcons shouldn't get credit for the Browns being terrible at drafting football players. With the Taylor pick, Cleveland could've landedCameron Jordan (drafted three picks later) or Muhammad Wilkerson (drafted nine picks later). With the Little pick, Cleveland could've gotten Randall Cobb (drafted five picks later).

 

Beautiful. I always hate when people forget to view draft trades this way.

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Well, if you're going to trade up for a player in this draft, pass rusher might be your best bet. Not a lot of legit pass rushers in this draft and Clowney has a shot at being special.

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Falcons has quite a few holes to fill. However, they still have some talented play makers at skill positions. I don't think the ransom to trade up to the first round would be worth it considering the holes they have to fill. The draft is deep and full of talent. They can get a quality impact player that makes their football team better with the 6th pick of the draft and then use the rest of their picks to continue addressing their needs.

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This can be completely off base and may not even be logical, but I was just thinking Rams GM Les Snead is at #2 and wants to move back as he always does. Snead's former mentor Dimitroff GM of the Falcons wants to move up like he has been doing. I wonder if this is some work between the two to create a win-win for both off them by pressuring teams to move up for their guy or at least set the tone that teams will have to jump up to get these elite guys.

 

Just a thought, but would be an interesting storyline.

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Think its a bad move, if they do it. They have plenty of holes to fill still. Sure pass rusher is one of the biggest. Its a big risk at the least. Even if he pans out right away they could really use the help elsewhere and are really low on depth.

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Falcons should stay put grab their OT and aim to land a pass rusher later in the draft, Dee Ford, Attoachu, and Van Noy may be there in the second. Hell they could trade up to the late first, early second for a cheaper solution.

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This can be completely off base and may not even be logical, but I was just thinking Rams GM Les Snead is at #2 and wants to move back as he always does. Snead's former mentor Dimitroff GM of the Falcons wants to move up like he has been doing. I wonder if this is some work between the two to create a win-win for both off them by pressuring teams to move up for their guy or at least set the tone that teams will have to jump up to get these elite guys.

 

Just a thought, but would be an interesting storyline.

Rams are in the driver's seat in this draft as I don't see many teams willing to trade into #1. If there was an Andrew Luck type lock at QB, there would likely be several teams vying for him already and Texans would likely not want to trade out at any price unless it was an offer they couldn't refuse.

A trade with Rams makes sense as it would not cost the earth to get into #2.

I think Rams may be after Watkins to give Bradford another weapon to throw to - that way they can be certain if Bradford will be their guy moving forward.

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They won't. The fact that they play in the division that has laundry list of elite pass rushers pretty much forces them to upgrade that average offensive line that they have if they don't trade down. There are a number of home-run WR selections that they will be able to make in the 2nd round. But if they don't improve up front they may as well just IR Bradford today.

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They won't. The fact that they play in the division that has laundry list of elite pass rushers pretty much forces them to upgrade that average offensive line that they have if they don't trade down. There are a number of home-run WR selections that they will be able to make in the 2nd round. But if they don't improve up front they may as well just IR Bradford today.

They take Watkins #2 and shoot for Zack Martin (Guard) at #13. Guard is a need.

Conversely, they take Greg Robinson (RT) at #2 and shoot for Mike Evans at #13.

Edited by Wattafan

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While there isn't an Andrew Luck-type player (hate that label fyi) there are a few prospects who are considered to be elite talents in this draft and it doesn't take much for a team to make a move. All they need to do is fall in love and they will be willing to make jumps. Minnesota, Buffalo, Detroit, and Tampa Bay are a few teams that have not hidden their desire to move up and I can see this Falcon talk fueling a trade and helping the Rams.

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Methinks it just comes down to how much better they think he is then all the other guys. I'm a believer that drafting to fill up holes should always be secondary to getting the best guy out there.

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Methinks it just comes down to how much better they think he is then all the other guys. I'm a believer that drafting to fill up holes should always be secondary to getting the best guy out there.

 

This has always been an interesting concept to me, while the most popular thing to say is best player avaliable there are still teams who have drafted for need first and done well for the most part. The stigma is that if you draft need you will get a bust and of course we know that is not true. I myself struggle with where I stand on this theory, because while I understand you want talent it is hard to have a known weak spot and pass it over.

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