Upset Specialists: Week 1

[BwareDWare94 723]

Along with our annual Pick 'Em, I thought it'd be great to see just how well us TGP posters can identify and correctly predict upsets. Here's how it's going to work:

 

Posters can identify 2-4 upsets each week. A correct pick is +3 points. An incorrect pick is -1 points. Multiple incorrect picks are multiplied by two, per miss. So if you miss two upsets, it's only -2 points. If you miss three, it's -4 points. I'll post rankings, each week.

 

I thought allowing up to 4 upset picks would allow any posters who got down early the opportunity to climb back into the competition. I'll only add more rules if it appears posters are just throwing random upsets out there that they don't truly believe could happen.

 

Anyway, I'll start us off:

 

Dallas over San Francisco

-I think the 49ers are primed to be beaten with their defensive losses. Dallas starts the season at home with a huge chip on their shoulders due to nobody taking them seriously.

 

Houston over Washington

-Houston actually has a very nice roster outside of the quarterback position. I expect their defense to give RG3 fits.

 

Note: please provide some sort of reasoning for your upset picks. A handful of sentences will do.

Edited September 2, 2014 by BwareDWare94

[Bay 2,003]

Titans over Chiefs

 

Chargers over Cardinals (not really an upset in my mind but the Cardinals are favored being at home)

[RazorStar 4,025]

I think it's too early in the season for a game to be an upset...

 

I'll just give one, Dolphins over Patriots.

 

Divisional matchups are never gimmes, and Miami has their best HFA earliest in the year. I think they catch the mighty patriots off guard and get a contested victory.

[Sparty 110]

- Chargers over Cardinals: Arizona isn't that far from California obviously, so it's not like an east coast trip for the Chargers. I don't even see how Arizona is favored here tbh.

 

- Falcons over Saints: Falcons have both their WRs now.

Edited September 2, 2014 by Spartan Havoc

[GA_Eagle 595]

Jags over eagles cause feeling pessimistic

[theMileHighGuy 656]

Colts definitely have a shot, beat us last year after all.

[BradyFan81 404]

Some of you guys need to check the lines,

 

- Rams over Vikings: Both QB situations are bleak, and Minnesota probably wont be that strong on the road to start the year.

 

- Ravens over Bengals: It's Baltimore in a home opener. They always play tough at home.

 

- Chargers over Cardinals: Arizona isn't that far from California obviously, so it's not like an east coast trip for the Chargers. I don't even see how Arizona is favored here tbh.

 

Rams are a 3.5 point favorite and the Ravens are a 1.5 point favorite.

 

Also Bware, Houston is favored over Washington.

[BwareDWare94 723]

I'd safely say Houston and St. Louis wins would be upsets, but picking Ravens over Bengals as an upset in Baltimore is a bit of a stretch.

 

Let's only worry about lines if an absurd pick is submitted as an upset. I'm going to wipe Ravens over Bengals off the books, right now.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Isn't the home team automatically gifted 3 pts or something in Vegas lines? Like since the Ravens are 1.5 favorites they are at home so if all things were neutral they'd be 1.5 underdogs?

[Sparty 110]

Some of you guys need to check the lines,

 

 

Rams are a 3.5 point favorite and the Ravens are a 1.5 point favorite.

 

Also Bware, Houston is favored over Washington.

 

Vikings are picked over the Rams in both the NFL.com weekly pickem (62%) and the ESPN pickem (52%) as well and he never said we were going by spread. I went by general opinion. Nice try to tell me it's not an upset though. Not everything is by spread.

[SteVo+ 3,702]

I think we need a hard rule on what determines an "upset," preferably by using point spreads.

[Sparty 110]

Well, whatever. I just got rid of those 2 "controversial" picks. I guess simulators now picks what teams we think are upsets.

[RazorStar 4,025]

It's way too soon for there to be many real upsets. Baselines have not been set yet. Anything can happen in week 1.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Maybe for the first week or few we should just focus on the obvious upsets, like say Jacksonville over Eagles (which is like a -10 or -11 spread for the Eagles right now.) So if you feel like no obvious ones will happen, don't predict one and stay at 0.

[ATL_Predator+ 1,196]

How can there be an upset when every team is 0-0?

Edited September 2, 2014 by ATL

[Glanvilles Grits 142]

Titans over Chiefs

 

Cowboys over 49ers

[Packers Dynasty 2010 116]

Packers over Seahawks: I think Green Bay matches up the best against Seattle and this is going to be a great game.

 

Raiders over Jets

 

Chargers over Cardinals

[BwareDWare94 723]

Some of you guys are thinking way too hard about this. Just look at the matchups as general fans. There are some very obvious potential upsets, out there. I've been fine with every prediction so far but Ravens over Bengals, as those two teams are obviously very close.

[Sparty 110]

Some of you guys are thinking way too hard about this. Just look at the matchups as general fans. There are some very obvious potential upsets, out there. I've been fine with every prediction so far but Ravens over Bengals, as those two teams are obviously very close.

 

I edited my post.

[Bucman 891]

Jax over Philly

Cleveland over Pittsburgh

[Glanvilles Grits 142]

This entire idea doesn't work. You should only be able to take one game per week. Otherwise were all picking the same games and having the same points.