2500

[BwareDWare94 723]

As a fan who's heard such ridiculous claims as Julius Jones thinking he can go for 1700, and Chris Johnson thinking he could possibly run for 2500 (lol), I'm hard pressed to take this seriously, so I think I'll choose option three.

 

What do the rest of you think?

 

I don't need him to set any crazy records to know that he's the best running back of this generation, by far, and I doubt I'm alone in realizing that he's already better than Eric Dickerson. It's not like we don't know that already.

 

I think he'll set the new career rushing record, but I'm not sure he'll ever pass 2105 or sniff 2500.

[Glanvilles Grits 142]

Somewhere between potentially and hesitant to cater to ridiculous stats. It all depends. I look at it this way, if he starts next season as hot as he ended this season, no reason why it wouldn't be possible. He didn't start the season nearly as dominant as he ended it. And if he can put together a couple more 150 yard games at the beginning, we would be having the discussion at the end of this season.

 

It's certainly not something you count on or even think about happening though, not until it's close anyway.

Edited January 5, 2013 by Chris D

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

The problem is just consistently being great week in and week out. We know AP is amazing. One of the best backs in NFL history (oh yes). But even the best aren't at their best every single week. It's extremely difficult to bring the same intensity and production against every team throughout the course of the regular season.

 

It isn't a question of talent, by any means.

[seanbrock 1,684]

The problem is just consistently being great week in and week out. We know AP is amazing. One of the best backs in NFL history (oh yes). But even the best aren't at their best every single week. It's extremely difficult to bring the same intensity and production against every team throughout the course of the regular season.

 

It isn't a question of talent, by any means.

I don't think it's that so much as it is that yards are harder to come by against the better teams in the playoffs. Especially when your QB is Ponder.

[Kardiac Kids 6]

He would have to average like 157 yards a week, for AP that is possible. But I wouldn't do that as a coach to my best player, unless you only wanna have him a few more years.

[RazorStar 4,025]

"When Percy Harvin was lost, the Vikings let Peterson carry them. Peterson went on the greatest eight-game rushing streak in NFL history during games 7-14. He rushed for 1,313 yards (164.1 yards per game), which is the most ever in any eight-game run by a player in NFL history."

 

So basically Peterson would need to play like he did in those games for every game in a season. That would be beyond ridiculous. A single 'bad' game (80 yards or less) would completely throw him off the pace. It's not happening unless the season expands to 18 games.

[.AirMcNair. 1,232]

I doubt it. 150+ yards per game over a season sounds impossible. Every back has a down game or 2, even in 2000 yard seasons. CJ had a game where he only ran for 34, another where he only ran for 57 and two other games slightly under 100. It took him having a historically great November to get on track to/eventually hit 2k.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Nah. No way.

[OSUViking 505]

lol

[oochymp 2,393]

2500 yards is obscene, I laughed when CJ talked about it and it's just as laughable now. As has already been pointed out, he'd have to average over 156 yards per game to hit 2500 (precise average needs to be minimum 156.25) and that's not gonna happen, it's hard enough to put up those sorts of numbers over a short stretch, much less maintaining it for 16 games. For reference, OJ Simpson holds the record for single season ypg with 143.1 in 1973, when he broke 2000 yards in a 14 game season, and nobody else has averaged more than 133.1 ypg through a season (Jim Brown in '63) and the best anyone has done in a 16 game season is Dickerson's 131.6 in '84 (Peterson averaged 131.1 ypg this year) and only 11 players have averaged over 120 ypg in a season (OJ and Jim Brown both did it twice) only five have averaged more than 130 (the four mentioned and Walter Payton at 132.3 in 1977, a 14 game season) Someone mentioned expansion to 18 games as helpful, while it would certainly be easier, he'd still have to average 138.9 ypg to hit 2500 in an 18 game season, which isn't impossible, as mentioned it has been done, but it would be an amazingly high number and would require top end ypg to go up with two games added, which I don't see happening.

 

 

As for the career record, as I'm sure everyone knows, Emmitt Smith currently holds that at 18,355. Peterson currently has 8849 over his first six seasons, through six seasons Smith had 8956, so despite the 2000 yard season, Peterson is still behind Smith's pace. One thing in Peterson's favor is that Smith's production dropped off substantially after his first six seasons. After season 6, Smith averaged 'only' 1044 yards per season the rest of his career and he failed to top 1400 yards in a single season after his sixth after breaking 1400 in five of his first six years, two over 1700, his only low total early was 937 in his rookie year. But, Smith played for 15 years, playing through the age of 35, which is insane for a RB, and before anyone says his two years in Arizona were worthless, he did break 900 yards in his final season. I think it's possible for Peterson, but it'll take him maintaining his current pace for at least a couple more seasons and achieving similar longevity to Smith. Both are difficult propositions, but then again so is a 2000 yard season mere months removed from an ACL tear, so I'm not ready to rule it out for Peterson.

[Bay 2,003]

Emmitt carried the ball 252 times more than him through 6 years.

[BwareDWare94 723]

Emmitt also had a quarterback early on. For more than one year of his career. AP had Brett for one year and then an insane collection of career backups and borderline third stringers.

[oochymp 2,393]

Emmitt carried the ball 252 times more than him through 6 years.

good point, I didn't think to look at carries, but that does explain Smith's drop off after 6 years and makes it easier to think AP can avoid that drop off, but Smith's longevity is still pretty incredible, it's hard to think of any back playing at that high a level at 35

 

 

I'm gonna run a few numbers real quick ignoring Smith's pace and just looking at the total, the baseline number is that Peterson needs 9507 yards to top Smith

 

he's averaged about 1475 per season so far, if he can maintain that pace (which would be ridiculous) he'd break Smith's record in about 6.4 seasons, so at some point in the 8th game of his 7th season from now, at which point Peterson will be 34 (Smith retired at 35) if we give Peterson all of that 7th season then he'll need to average about 1358 yards per season, which I'm not going to call impossible, but it's tough

 

if we assume Peterson lasts to the same age as Smith, 35, then he's got another 8 seasons, which would mean he'd need to average about 1188 yards per season, which is manageable, but difficult

 

another point to consider is that Smith started in the league at 21, Peterson started at 22, but both skipped their senior years of college so I'm going to assume they had close to the same mileage coming into the league, so if Peterson lasts as many years as Smith he'll have 9 more seasons, which would mean he'd need to average 1056 yards per season, which is entirely believable, but has Peterson playing until he's 36