Importance of a Franchise QB

[seanbrock 1,684]

So Ngata and I were arguing about the importance of a franchise QB. He was talking shit on Wentz saying he's not worth the money he's gonna get. Naturally i told him he was a dummy and to kick rocks lol but in the thread I just posted before this I identified through the games I've watched for the season and stats (because I can't watch everyone every week) to kind of see what it means to have a top 10 QB.

 

Rodgers- The Packers with Rodgers are Super Bowl contenders. Without him....lol

Brady- interesting case because he's never been the highest paid QB idt

Wentz- 7-9 to 10-1and the biggest difference has been number 11

Wilson- If the Seahawks can make it in with all those injuries he has to be MVP.

Brees- look at his YPA and completion %. He's been great. I'm probably underrating him

Stafford- The team around this guy isn't very good but he's gonna lead them to 10-11 wins

Cousins- Injuries fucked the Skins. They had every starter injured on the oline at once

Rivers- Quietly has put together an excellent year. They're winning the West (wtf lol)

Goff- Not calling the audibles hurts him in my eyes but he's why the Rams are 8-3

Ryan- Falcons took a while to get over the hangover. Now they're rolling

Now for the highest paid QB's

1. Flacco

2. Palmer

3. Cousins

4. Ryan

5. Stafford

6. Rodgers

7. Newton

8. Rivers

9. Manning

10. Luck

(Brees, Wilson, and Ben are all within a milly of Luck with Brady making 5 million less)

Obviously paying a QB 20 million a year and them not living up to the contract hurts, there's no denying that. Flacco and Palmer are killing their teams with their deals. It doesn't always mean once you pay a guy that you're fucked for years though either. The Texans paid Osweiler and made the playoffs in spite of him. This year they just lost too many players. As for Luck and slightly less so Newton, the incompetence of their coaching staffs and front office (how do you pay a QB all that money and not even invest draft picks on the offensive line?)

I think generally when you look at the list of the best QB's, their teams have a much higher chance of making the playoffs and winning a super bowl than teams without a marquee franchise QB. Of the last ten super bowl winners only 1 didn't have a franchise QB. I think you could argue that it's 3 depending on how you feel about Eli but basically all I wanted to say is Ngata is wrong about Carson Wentz. Brady, Ben, Peyton, Eli and Brees all won rings on big contracts. Wentz is next in line as one of the QB's of this generation. Suck it, Ngata. Flacco blows and I was right about that too

[Omerta+ 1,206]

I have got to hand it to you man, you missed my point in a Fantastical manner. I'm not saying that having a franchise quarterback is a bad thing, I'm not even saying you can't win a Superbowl with them. What I am saying, however, is that paying somebody well over 20 million dollars a year significantly diminishes the talent that you can put around those people.

 

In the Eagles case specifically as of 2018 according to Sport Trac, you guys have 10 players that are making over 10 million dollars next year, and two that are making over 12 million dollars a year. I'll do some simple math on that and throw 20 million dollars on top of that, and what are you get? It's projected that the Eagles are already going to be 4 million dollars over the cap, so you're going to have some cap casualties that are going to have to clear the books. Even with all of the dead money coming off you're still going to be in a financial bind. People like Fletcher Cox, Vinny Curry, Mychal Kendricks, Lane Johnson, Jason Peters, and a few others taking up 10 million dollars of cap space with no significant investment and wide receivers is going to be kind of hard to swallow for young Carson.

 

I'm not saying how he can't drive too young impactful rookies, but what about young Sidney Jones when he comes up for contract, you're almost assuredly going to have to let him go. That was the point of what I was saying, is when you pay a franchise quarterback, when it comes to free agency and homegrown Talent you almost always have to watch him walk. You may get to keep two or three but that's going to be about it. Right now Carson Wentz benefits from the fact that he has a tremendous defense, and a great Supporting Cast around him especially offense of line. Which brings me to another person making over 10 million dollars, Brandon Brooks. Not saying that he is a good, just saying that he's a luxury that you guys can afford here in a couple years.

 

I used the Seahawks as an example, because when Russell Wilson was on his rookie contract, they had so much talent that it was almost impossible for every other team in the NFC to compete with them. I'm not saying Russell Wilson isn't good, what I am saying though, is every since he got his deal look at the talent they've been able to support him with. They've had to let so many players walk on that defense, that that defense is not what it used to be. They are still good but they are not Elite like that used to be. The offense of line they have not been able to invest any, except a recent transaction for Duane Brown, who is got about 3 years left in him, if you were a young Premera left tackle there's no way they would have been able to swing it cap wise.

[seanbrock 1,684]

You're definitely right to be honest with you, but if you draft well and have good young players to replace those guys you'll end up having to pay the way teams like Pittsburgh and New England have done such a good job doing then you can sustain that success even with a 20 million dollar QB. Also, getting the most out of stop gap free agents is a big deal and the Eagles are already doing that. I mean, they pulled Patrick Robinson off the scrap heap and he went from being terrible to arguably the best slot CB in the league this year.

 

They've gotten big production out of Chris Long and LeGarrett Blount too. I mean, this team that the Eagles have put together this year is already up against the cap in a big way and are going to either have to make some decisions this off season or some how restructure enough contracts to get under the cap, but right now I think the Eagles have the formula to sustain success. They have an excellent coaching staff from the Head Coach down to the positional coaches and Howie Roseman and Joe Douglas have done a great job getting talented players on this team in a variety of ways.

 

You're definitely right that it's a lot harder to keep talent with one guy making 20 million and if you are paying one guy 20 million you better hope he's the kind of QB that makes the people around him better. I think Wentz is that kind of player though. Come at me bro lol.

[Cherry 1,302]

One thing I think is worth discussing is that franchise QBs and franchise HCs are for the most part directly linked to each other. It's very rare you see something like the Luck situation where a talented QB has a bad HC. I think having a franchise quarterback is much more important to team stability than people give it credit for as well. Having a guy who isn't gonna budge at QB makes everything else easier to invest in. It makes front offices more comfortable to spend a first rounder on a safety than a LT or QB. It makes teams less likely to break the bank for a Glennon or McCarron.

 

Look at Philip Rivers for the Chargers. He's never won anything of importance, but he's been a good stable quarterback for over a decade. We're seeing the instability set in right now with Eli's benching in NY. McAdoo is a goner. That FO built a decent team that got slammed by injuries and McAdoo is in panic mode.

 

That lack of stability at the QB position has plagued teams like Cleveland and Jacksonville for God knows how long. That leads to panic moves like SF trading for Garoppolo. Chicago signing Glennon then drafting Trubisky. Panic moves solely in the hopes of a turn around to save the HC's ass.

 

You can build a team without a QB, but it's damn hard and may have to stretch more than one regime to make it happen. Look at Jacksonville. That's a 13 win team with Tyrod Taylor at QB.

[seanbrock 1,684]

Yeah, there has a been a great HC behind every dynasty and one dynasty never had a Franchise QB and that's the Joe Gibbs lead Redskins that won 4 Super Bowls. You definitley make a solid point there, Cherry.

[Omerta+ 1,206]

You're definitely right to be honest with you, but if you draft well and have good young players to replace those guys you'll end up having to pay the way teams like Pittsburgh and New England have done such a good job doing then you can sustain that success even with a 20 million dollar QB. Also, getting the most out of stop gap free agents is a big deal and the Eagles are already doing that. I mean, they pulled Patrick Robinson off the scrap heap and he went from being terrible to arguably the best slot CB in the league this year.

 

They've gotten big production out of Chris Long and LeGarrett Blount too. I mean, this team that the Eagles have put together this year is already up against the cap in a big way and are going to either have to make some decisions this off season or some how restructure enough contracts to get under the cap, but right now I think the Eagles have the formula to sustain success. They have an excellent coaching staff from the Head Coach down to the positional coaches and Howie Roseman and Joe Douglas have done a great job getting talented players on this team in a variety of ways.

 

You're definitely right that it's a lot harder to keep talent with one guy making 20 million and if you are paying one guy 20 million you better hope he's the kind of QB that makes the people around him better. I think Wentz is that kind of player though. Come at me bro lol.

I'm not saying that the Eagles are garbage, or even that they will be. What I am saying is that the NFL is littered with examples of this very thing that I am talking about happening. You can look at any team with a franchise quarterback and they won't have had the consistency of going to the NFC and AFC Title Games as much as the teams that had a quarterback on their rookie deal.

 

The Jets with Sanchez, there is enough Talent on that team in enough money to go around before he started getting paid that they could do that time and time again. San Francisco the same way when Kaepernick was on his rookie deal they were able to go consistently Time After Time After Time, the Seahawks the same thing with the playoffs. Now when you look at all those quarterbacks after they got paid, sure their teams are relevant but they have nowhere near the consistency between year in and year out that those other teams did.

 

I'm not saying how you say this, but it's a lot more complicated than just drafting well, and picking a few guys off the scrap Heap when you need to. Think about having three or four rookie starting, and then the next class to get one or two, and then you get three or four, we need to keep doing that over and over and over and over again. If you miss out on one year's first second and third round draft pick, or just have one or two bad dress in general it can set your franchise back three or four maybe five years.

 

 

I'm not saying that Doug Peterson is not an excellent coach, but he would have to be at Bill Belichick level to make up for some of these things. Not the Eagles can do it only time will tell, but I still say that the Eagles best chance at a Superbowl lies with Carson Wentz playing on his rookie deal, after that it could get ugly.

Edited November 29, 2017 by Omerta

[BC 331]

We havn't had tons of people walk on defense. What in the world? Brandon Browner, Walter Thurmond, Kevin Pierre-Louis, and Byron Maxwell were the only ones to leave via free agency and those are hardly household names. Kam ded, Sherm ded, Shaquille Griffin ded, Cliff Avril ded, and the guy we took 35th overall in the draft this year to be our phenom interior pass rusher, defensive tackle Malik McDowell ded. It's the wear and tear and grind of the NFL.

[Cherry 1,302]

I 100% disagree, Ngata. It's much easier to build a team around a franchise QB than to build a team up then go hunting for one. Having that franchise QB is the way to consistently play in the postseason, even if you have a rather average roster.

 

Matt Ryan consistently makes the playoffs, but the Falcons aren't THAT talented. Russell Wilson consistently makes it despite having almost zero help offensively. Rodgers... We see what's happening right now with Hundley. That team is BAD without Rod. Brees may not consistently make it but when the Saints do make it it's largely because of him. You've seen the Landry Jones Steelers. It's not pretty.

 

Look at how badly the Broncos have played since losing Manning? Not to say that Manning was good in his last year, but you can't sustain success without a competent QB in charge. Your defense will only do so much to allow you to succeed.

 

The Rams are the perfect example of a good football team that could not find a franchise QB or HC. That was a playoff roster that had a 3-13 QB and HC.

[BwareDWare94 723]

A playoff defense with a 3-13 QB (Granted, Case is prolly a 7-8 win QB with better WRs last year), HC, OL, TE, and WR corps. The Rams are a 7-8 win team max, regardless of McVay and his magical cover-ups of the helpless air raid QB Goff, if they don't add Witworth, Woods, Watkins, and draft Kupp. Now they need to find a TE, and they need Goff to develop the mental side by next season.

Edited November 30, 2017 by BwareDWare94

[Thanatos 2,847]

Really? Whitworth is a major piece, but Kupp, Woods, and Watkins? Easily replaced. Hell Woods hasn't even played for two games, Rams are just fine.

[BwareDWare94 723]

Because they had Watkins and Kupp. Both were huge last game. Not easily replaced. The Rams hadn't had a decent WR since Torry Holt

[Thanatos 2,847]

Cooper Kupp is a rookie who is a decent WR. Easily replaced.

 

Robert Woods is a #2 at best. Semi-easily replaced.

 

Watkins has done little this year, from what I've seen. A few explosions, but lacks consistency.

[BwareDWare94 723]

Then why were Rams WRs a joke for over a decade? Give these guys some credit. All 3 of them are better than any Rams receiver since Torry Holt.

Edited November 30, 2017 by BwareDWare94

[SteVo+ 3,702]

I've been dying to sink my teeth into this thread but have been busy with school. Now that I can, I find that most of you have made the points I wanted to make anyway. I'll say this much...

 

Ngata is absolutely correct that dishing out money for a franchise QB significantly restrains a team financially. You simply won't be able to sign every homegrown player to a long-term contract, and that's the point of a salary cap. You have to make decisions. As for whether or not to pay QB, I don't feel teams really have a choice, most of the time. Whenever you get lucky enough to find a decent QB, you simply have to pay them. They may end up overpaid like Flacco, but what is the alternative? Franchise quarterbacks are incredibly hard to find. I suppose you can try to tag-and-trade them for some draft pick package if there's a surefire stud QB in the draft, but that's an unprecedented move in reality (even if we've all done it in Madden from time to time).

 

That being said, Sean is absolutely correct that the way to counter this is by consistently drafting good players. Look at what the Patriots do: they draft enough young talent to fill their roster, get the most out of them while they're young and playing on cheap rookie contracts, and then make a decision. Sometimes they shell out the cash (Devin McCourty); sometimes they trade the player for value (Chandler Jones). The Patriots also do a tremendous job of finding bargains in free agency. They don't always hit home runs (Rex Burkhead, anyone?), but the Patriots understand that it's about value and are the most aggressive team in finding low-risk, high-reward players.

 

 

On another note, it's awesome to see some quality discussion around TGP these days (beyond the shoutbox). It's long overdue.

[OSUViking 505]

I'm not a football expert and I really don't know the technical aspects of logistics of the game. Just a disclaimer.

 

I saw someone here mention the HC/QB tandem, and with how the Vikings have played I think that makes sense. It seems that Keenum is in a system that plans for his strengths and weaknesses for what team they're going to face, and it puts him in a position to succeed. Obviously, it's still up to the QB to make plays and protect the ball. I'm not sitting here trying to compare Keenum to franchise QBs, I'll save that for whenever Teddy makes his return, but he's producing better than he ever has before.

 

It seems shocking to me, but I've noticed this both in the NFL and in CFB (*cough cough* OSU *cough cough*) where ridiculous amounts of talent aren't maximized by the game plan. OSU the last few years has seemed like it comes in with a plan but no tactics to address if the defense has planned for them well. Take the Iowa game, and just about any loss under Urban. Outside of the Mich State game, they have looked woefully underprepared and the offense is almost always useless because its unimaginative. I saw this a lot under Norv Turner, too, where the Vikings would maybe start out well and then the defense would adjust and the Vikings would then be screwed. It seems to trivial that a really well-laid out gameplan would lead to success, but again I don't know that much about football.

 

I definitely think having a QB that can save plays on his own will put a team in a stronger position. But put him with a good staff that wants to plan for this coming game, and that game alone, and do it well? I think that QB will be successful more often than not. Maybe some QBs are better at improv, IDK.

[seanbrock 1,684]

Is it harder to find 5 or 6 guys on defense and pay them big money and rely on them to play well and stay healthy or to find one guy who you can protect?

[OSUViking 505]

Is it harder to find 5 or 6 guys on defense and pay them big money and rely on them to play well and stay healthy or to find one guy who you can protect?

I think a great defense + a decent offense is a recipe for building a contender. Not being a contender, but building one. The defense can keep teams in games and let the offense do what it needs to do to win. Obv, still requires a competent offense.

 

Not trying to just harp on the Vikes, but I like that they're prioritizing the core of the defense. The extensions we gave over the off-season are paying off, because all of them are playing great. I almost think drafting a QB with nothing around him is a waste. I'd rather build a team and then go for a QB.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

At some point the argument for not overpaying a franchise QB would hold some weight, but that shouldn't be an issue right now.

 

With the way the Salasry cap is rising, the opportunities are there.

 

Plus isn't the average roster turnover range like 2 to 4 years anyway? If theres one position you don't want to have to replace every 2 to 4 years, it's your Quarterback.

[Packers Dynasty 2010 116]

Aaron Rodgers is worth every penny that he is currently making and I don't see his contract that over-burdening. Although he is probably due another extension soon and it will be interesting to see if we make him the highest paid player again or if he takes a discount to keep other players. The Packers' financial burden is players that are making a bunch of money and not living up to it. Clay Matthews is the Packers' 2nd highest paid player and has yet to live up to that contract the Pack gave him a few years ago. He is being paid like a gamechanger and hardly makes an impact. There are few games where he may make an impact but other games where he completely disappears. He either needs to take a severe paycut or the Packers should cut him this offseason. Randall Cobb is another severely overpaid player, he's making $12.6M this season which is pretty ridiculous. I was expecting huge things from him this season with Jordy and Davante outside, and Bennett clearing the seams for Cobb to work the middle of the field. That obviously wasn't happening and we are left with another overpaid guy. I'm curious how Ted approaches this offseason with Davante needing an extension now. Does he invest $30+ M into receivers? Jordy and Cobb both have 1 season left so I could see us rolling with them and having that much invested.

 

As sean said, drafting good players consistently is a huge key and it's something the Packers have struggled to do, especially on the defensive side. Wasting 1st round draft picks on guys like Derek Sherrod, Datone Jones, and even Nick Perry until recently. Along with 2nd and 3rd round picks for Rollins, Thornton, Worthy, and Lacy after he got fat. Although finding key guys in the later rounds like; Bakh, Daniels, Linsely, and Martinez helps a lot

 

Another huge problem is staying healthy, injuries occur for every team but being lucky and staying relatively healthy is a huge part in success. Losing a key player to injuries can seriously derail a team and if it's career ending injury it's even worse. I believe if Nick Collins doesn't go down, the Packers would have won at least 1 more Super Bowl. He was a top 3 safety at time and just entering his prime. He was the leader of the defense and the combination of him and Woodson was amazing. Even though Finley wasn't a top TE, he was still a big receiving threat and losing him to a neck injury did impact the Packers.

 

The past few seasons show how injuries have derailed the Packers once again. In 2014, the Packers were pretty healthy and cruising after the 1-2 start. Then Rodgers suffered that leg injury towards the end of season that hampered him and if he was healthy the Packers probably win the NFCCG, like they should have. Jordy goes down in the 2015 preseason, while Cobb and Adams dealt with nagging injuries throughout the season and the offense was never the same. In 2016, the DBs get completely decimated by injuries and the defense is atrocious. This season has been even worse when it comes to injuries. Only the WR corps, Ha Ha, Linsley, Jahri Evans, and Martinez have been healthy all season.

[oochymp 2,393]

Plus isn't the average roster turnover range like 2 to 4 years anyway? If theres one position you don't want to have to replace every 2 to 4 years, it's your Quarterback.

I can vouch for that

[Cherry 1,302]

A playoff defense with a 3-13 QB (Granted, Case is prolly a 7-8 win QB with better WRs last year), HC, OL, TE, and WR corps. The Rams are a 7-8 win team max, regardless of McVay and his magical cover-ups of the helpless air raid QB Goff, if they don't add Witworth, Woods, Watkins, and draft Kupp. Now they need to find a TE, and they need Goff to develop the mental side by next season.

 

Kupp is very overrated. Watkins and Woods have been solid, but Whitworth shoring up the left side of the line is the biggest factor outside of hiring McVay. Helped solidify Saffold's job not having a turnstile next to him. I think it's a bit silly to say McVay is making magical cover ups for the "helpless air raid QB Goff"

 

I highlighted what Goff did well last year and where he needed to improve. He's a good quarterback who has a great head coach giving him help pre-snap to make completions easier. But it's still all Goff once that ball is snapped and he has been tremendous. Would he be as successful without McVay? No chance. But he wouldn't regress to Fisher era Goff. Fisher is brain cancer for QBs.

[BwareDWare94 723]

Call Kupp overrated if you want. He's being noticed by peers, coaches, and high profile analysts throughout the league. Goff trusts him, he gets very, very open, and he makes plays with his opportunities. You can argue that the methods and physical tools aren't that impressive, but the production is only getting better. Zimmer and other opposing coaches have referred to him as their best WR

[seanbrock 1,684]

lol cherry come on dude, Kupp isn't overrated. Just because you didn't like him as a prospect doesn't mean he's not playing well. Maybe BWare overrates Kupp but he's barely a blip on the radar nationally. Honestly Kupp wasn't even overrated or talked about much going to into the draft. Most people saw him as a second-fourth round prospect. He went in the second round and has been a productive player just like he was in college.

 

Whitworth's presence has been felt in the running game too though. Some of those old football cliches are repeated for a reason and "it all starts up front" might be the biggest example of that. Todd Gurley I'm sure appreciates Whitworth

[Omerta+ 1,206]

lol cherry come on dude, Kupp isn't overrated. Just because you didn't like him as a prospect doesn't mean he's not playing well.

That is exactly what it is. Well spotted.

[Cherry 1,302]

Just because I didn't like him doesn't mean I'm not going to admit he's been successful for the Rams so far. I should've clarified by him being overrated, I meant Bware is overrating him. McVay & Whitworth have been much more important than any of the receivers we picked up. Kupp isn't why the Rams are successful. Neither is Watkins or Woods.