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DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F

Last Days on Earth?

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I'm a History/Discovering/Science Channel geek, and they had a 2 hour show about this topic where they counted down the top 7 ways human civilization could/will end...

 

The list was:

 

7. Death of a Star: Gamma-Ray Burst

Death of a Star: Black Hole

6. Intelligent Machines

5. Supervolcano

4. Asteroid

3. Nuclear War

2. Plague

1. Climate Change (Global Warming)

 

Thoughts? What do you think is most likely to cause the end of civilization?

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Asteroid is probably the most likely. I think we as a species could survive everything else listed (well, with the exception of the black hole).

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None of the above honestly. I think within the the next two hundred years minimum we will be colonizing space. You guys might think I'm nuts but it's based on a theory called The Law of Exponential Return. It's a borrowed biology team but what it means in this sense is the the progression of technology is exponential because we use all the technology of today to make the technology of tomorrow. Just 50 years ago computers were 100,000 times the size they are today and 1 billion times less powerful. 50 years is literally nothing in the span of human life on earth. Think about the technology only 150 years ago. Then think of 300 years ago. We've been civilized for thousands of years, and the growth we've experienced in the last 50 years is clearly exponential.

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I'm a History/Discovering/Science Channel geek, and they had a 2 hour show about this topic where they counted down the top 7 ways human civilization could/will end...

 

The list was:

 

7. Death of a Star: Gamma-Ray Burst

Death of a Star: Black Hole

6. Intelligent Machines

5. Supervolcano

4. Asteroid

3. Nuclear War

2. Plague

1. Climate Change (Global Warming)

 

Thoughts? What do you think is most likely to cause the end of civilization?

 

I'd drop Plague from that list with all the advancements and medicine in what not. I think CLIMATE CHANGE (not Global Warming per se) could definitely be #1. The climate will change with OR WITHOUT us (Ice Age anyone).

 

Nuclear War isn't out of the question one of these days but I have hope that wouldn't wipe out ALL OF EARTH.

 

I don't think intelligent machines is all that likely either.

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I am think all of them are possible. I think the most likely is nuclear war. It is a fact that the US alone has more than enough nukes to destroy the Earth several times over. And we are not the only ones who have them and dont have the most.

 

The middle east is becoming ever more unsettled, and if Iran can refine nuclear energy far enough to get it weaponized and with missile capabilities to get to Israel we are going to see a huge power struggle their.

 

With us backing Israel and Russia backdooring weapons to every country that hates us we are going to be put at odds eventually have to find out who is the bigger boss. It wont be pretty.

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None of the above honestly. I think within the the next two hundred years minimum we will be colonizing space. You guys might think I'm nuts but it's based on a theory called The Law of Exponential Return. It's a borrowed biology team but what it means in this sense is the the progression of technology is exponential because we use all the technology of today to make the technology of tomorrow. Just 50 years ago computers were 100,000 times the size they are today and 1 billion times less powerful. 50 years is literally nothing in the span of human life on earth. Think about the technology only 150 years ago. Then think of 300 years ago. We've been civilized for thousands of years, and the growth we've experienced in the last 50 years is clearly exponential.

 

You think all that is gonna happen in the next 200 years... But making possible AIs that can ultimately turn on us isn't likely?

 

Plus... Their were 'experts' on the show saying that if we continue adding CO2 in the air at the pace we are currently doing... It could end civilization in 75-100 years.

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Asteroid? Not if Morgan Freeman and some hero astronauts have anything to say about it.

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I'm a History/Discovering/Science Channel geek, and they had a 2 hour show about this topic where they counted down the top 7 ways human civilization could/will end...

 

The list was:

 

7. Death of a Star: Gamma-Ray Burst

Death of a Star: Black Hole

6. Intelligent Machines

5. Supervolcano

4. Asteroid

3. Nuclear War

2. Plague

1. Climate Change (Global Warming)

 

Thoughts? What do you think is most likely to cause the end of civilization?

 

Dude I saw the same thing!!

 

The supervolcano one I thought was most likely because if I recall correctly the volcano they were talking about is a couple thousand years overdue to erupt.

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You think all that is gonna happen in the next 200 years... But making possible AIs that can ultimately turn on us isn't likely?

 

Plus... Their were 'experts' on the show saying that if we continue adding CO2 in the air at the pace we are currently doing... It could end civilization in 75-100 years.

 

I honestly am confused how humans are responsible for the earth warming up when we've only been putting CO2 in the atmosphere for the last, what, 200 years? 250?

 

I don't know that I buy that humans are responsible for global warming. Sure we add CO2. But it's not much at all, compared to how much other things add.

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Oh what a topic. I would say nuclear maybe 5 years ago. But our technology is beyond advanced to use those. Military has shit that goes beyond all of these. So for me idk, maybe a sickness. A plague would be something to worry about, considering all diseases on earth are pretty much manmade. Ever heard of population control? Resources arent going to last forever and earths population keeps growing. Humans will be the reason for all of us dying one day.

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Any space related event could happen at any time but the probability of it is extremely small just because of the sheer size of the universe and how spread apart everything is. Climate change seems most likely. I don't think anything else has a big chance of happening, or destroying all human life if some of them did.

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It'd be a space related event. Gamma Ray burst, Supernova, Cosmic Rays, Our galaxy colliding into the Andromeda Galaxy... Space will fuck us up. Asteroids are slightly lower on the OH HOLY SHIT SPACE YOU SCARY meter. I really hope we start colonizing space soon, it's something I want to work on after I get my degree.

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Dude I saw the same thing!!

 

The supervolcano one I thought was most likely because if I recall correctly the volcano they were talking about is a couple thousand years overdue to erupt.

 

Nice to meet another fan of those channels. lol.

 

But honestly, that was the one I believed the least. IDK, i'm not an expert in the field of volcanoes or anything, but I just don't see how one volcano could be responsible for wiping out the entire civilization, even such a huge part of it. They did say that the rest of us who aren't hit by the lava or even the ash would suffer from gasses in the air and such, or just from the loss of resources in a matter of months. I just don't see it happening.

 

I honestly am confused how humans are responsible for the earth warming up when we've only been putting CO2 in the atmosphere for the last, what, 200 years? 250?

 

I don't know that I buy that humans are responsible for global warming. Sure we add CO2. But it's not much at all, compared to how much other things add.

 

You don't think that if we continue to pump CO2 into the atmosphere at the rate we are currently, and increasing with each passing year, it could end up leading to our own downfall in less then a 100 years?

 

Oh what a topic. I would say nuclear maybe 5 years ago. But our technology is beyond advanced to use those. Military has shit that goes beyond all of these. So for me idk, maybe a sickness. A plague would be something to worry about, considering all diseases on earth are pretty much manmade. Ever heard of population control? Resources arent going to last forever and earths population keeps growing. Humans will be the reason for all of us dying one day.

 

I agree that we will probably lead to our own demise if it isn't by some asteroid from out of space. But I also believe it could come from a disease, I honestly thought it was going to be number 1, and was so shocked when they put it at #2. Whether it's a man made disease or natural, I think it's possible for a disease to spread at a rate which would be unmatched by any type of cure.

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guess we will find out in five months from now......

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I thought this thread was going to be about what we would do with our last days on earth :shrug:

 

Interesting topic, nonetheless

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You don't think that if we continue to pump CO2 into the atmosphere at the rate we are currently, and increasing with each passing year, it could end up leading to our own downfall in less then a 100 years?

 

The amount of CO2 we are putting into the atmosphere compared to the amount of CO2 being put in there by natural resources is minimal, at best. So short answer: No. The idea that humans are adding enough CO2 to throw off the entire cycle of hot/cold, (because we do have a cycle going on here naturally), is not one I find very convincing.

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Intelligent machines are inevitable, probably within my (and your) lifetime. That doesn't mean, of course that there will be a hostile takeover or genocide, just that they will exist sometime in the next 30 years or so.

Edited by GA_Eagle

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Intelligent machines are inevitable, probably within my (and your) lifetime. That doesn't mean, of course that there will be a hostile takeover or genocide, just that they will exist sometime in the next 30 years or so.

 

Idk. That last hurdle to a true AI is a huge one.

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I'd drop Plague from that list with all the advancements and medicine in what not.

A plague could easily wipe us out, doctors prescribe way too many antibiotics and have already created superbugs resistant to everything we have now. I took a infectious disease class and we are long overdo for something that could wipe out a LOT of people.

 

The supervolcano one I thought was most likely because if I recall correctly the volcano they were talking about is a couple thousand years overdue to erupt.

Yessir... I live next to it, the supervolcano in Yellowstone could easily wipe out the the general population.

 

Things like those are survivable by people who move underground(as long as they don't live next to the volcano like me). So my vote would be something like a black hole to wipe out the entire population.

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The amount of CO2 we are putting into the atmosphere compared to the amount of CO2 being put in there by natural resources is minimal, at best. So short answer: No. The idea that humans are adding enough CO2 to throw off the entire cycle of hot/cold, (because we do have a cycle going on here naturally), is not one I find very convincing.

 

There is a natural carbon cycle that keeps the natural output of CO2 stable. Basically the amount of CO2 natural resources toss out is around the same amount natural resources like the ocean and vegetation absorb. The majority of the shit we're spewing out does not get absorbed and accumulates, basically throwing it all off balance. That extra amount of CO2 is building all the time. The planet has natural cycles but we've basically sped it up to the hot cycle 46 times faster by the lowest estimates. One could assume that this hot cycle will be drastically worse that it ever would have been since it's not likely we'll be changing our ways anytime soon.

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There is a natural carbon cycle that keeps the natural output of CO2 stable. Basically the amount of CO2 natural resources toss out is around the same amount natural resources like the ocean and vegetation absorb. The majority of the shit we're spewing out does not get absorbed and accumulates, basically throwing it all off balance. That extra amount of CO2 is building all the time. The planet has natural cycles but we've basically sped it up to the hot cycle 46 times faster by the lowest estimates. One could assume that this hot cycle will be drastically worse that it ever would have been since it's not likely we'll be changing our ways anytime soon.

 

The lowest estimates? I've seen estimates saying we haven't affected it at all.

 

I have a hard time believing that Mother Nature can't compensate for an extra 0.001% of CO2, or whatever the exact number is.

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Idk. That last hurdle to a true AI is a huge one.

 

There's a number of hurdles but I think you mean in a bigger sense, ie the leap from where we are now to true ai is a big step. I contend that 30 years is a long time in a computer and software development sense. Think of 1982's tech to 2012's tech and you'll have an idea of how much different it'll be in 30 years.

 

Commodore_64_540x359.JPG

 

I don't know if you remember thinking video phones sounded like awesome thing that would never happen or not but I sure did as a kid. Hold on my Mom's calling on Skype.

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Robot uprising anyone?

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The difference is, Eagle, we are slowing down. The law of exponential technological increase, whatever its technical name is, at least for computers, is no longer applicable.

 

I'm not sure we'll ever get true AI, I don't know that it's possible. Creating a machine that actually thinks on its own... I'm just not sure how. We can easily make a machine that can fool people into thinking its a human, we're almost there already. But true artificial intelligence is very different.

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The difference is, Eagle, we are slowing down. The law of exponential technological increase, whatever its technical name is, at least for computers, is no longer applicable.

 

I'm not sure we'll ever get true AI, I don't know that it's possible. Creating a machine that actually thinks on its own... I'm just not sure how. We can easily make a machine that can fool people into thinking its a human, we're almost there already. But true artificial intelligence is very different.

 

Ok no sarcasm or anything but why dont u think its possible? Is it because of the technology u see everyday? Like not seeing something thats beyond the average tecnology society uses today just means its not possible to u?

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